Don’t Buy
 

Obviously, now isn’t the time to buy. The market’s reaction to further rate hikes is important. What treasuries do is everything. Cash is king right now. Liquidity and CDs/bonds/T Bills are where it’s at. If you aren’t already in the market, it’s best to stay out so you don’t lose too much of your money.

Two Premier Homes near me just sold for $1 million (give or take a few thousand)...

Prices are adjusting to normal from the "Covid Craze" of the last two years (Spring 2021-Spring/Summer 2023...)

If you bought during that time, you'll have a harder time "making a killing"...

As I said in another thread, I know from first-hand experience that the previous Lifestyle Visit homes in Alden Bungalows sold literally like hot-cakes. I looked on The Villages website within the last couple months and there were 26 pending homes in Alden Bungalows at the same time. They sold a lot of homes there and they all went very quickly.

Yes, I think that there is going to be some impact by 8% mortgage rates, but I still believe that the biggest factor is some normalization after the pandemic. Especially for potential buyers who live in areas where selling their homes is no longer as easy as it once was.

That being said, the market here is still strong and with many cash buyers, I think it will retain its own market dynamics which are not exactly aligned with the rest of the country or even all of Florida. This is the premiere 55+ community in the country and 10,000 people a day keep turning 65 regardless of what the interest rates are.

Larger Impact
 

The shrinking group of senior demographic due to inflation and having to return to work because of fixed incomes along with the post COVID drop in the desire to move to Florida could also be a larger part of the calculus.

That's not true. I bought a new Topaz investment villa in 2021, sold it 19 months later in 2022 for $325 and they are still selling in that price range depending on location. Some that bought during that period will break even, a few will lose and those that bought early in 2121 will make a really good profit.

Inflation doesn't go away overnight, but has come down significantly. Another factor which goes the other way is that bank savings are getting interest for the first time in a decade or more. The best I could do at local banks a few years ago even for a CD was 2/10's of 1%. It was truly pocket change. Now, cash get 5.5%. And I know Social Security is often referred to as "fixed income," but it did receive inflationary COLA's of 17% over the past 3 years.

I don't think that The Villages has any expectation of pandemic level buying to continue indefinitely. It was not a normal real estate market. If this market is normalizing, it's not a bad thing.

Actually, you're agreeing with me...

Inflation rates can drop, but the lower rate is still based on the much higher prices from the massive inflation we had for 2 years...

Inflation can drop to zero, but we're still stuck with significantly higher prices...

Exactly, it’s not like prices will drop when inflation levels out - if prices drop, that’s called deflation.
Last time there was deflation was 2009, about 2 - 3 months, prices dropped 1 to 2 %, then rose again.

Great New Look
 

The Villages latest new look for depreciations.

I went by that area.There are many inventory homes sitting empty. A few were reduced by $20,000-$25,000. Moultrie Creek lots are listed on the Villages site. They will be building and selling 3 villages at the same time. It will be interesting to see how that goes.

No bottom yet
 

You should be able to bargain down about 9-10% off the original asking price. The bottom is no where near being here yet. Interest rates are going up again because of inflation still being above the desired amount.

About 227 a square foot on specs? 235 is still too high. Construction can average around 174 depending on post construction claims with labor?

Maybe you can "bargain down about 9-10%" on a pre-owned home but definitely not on a new build. However, the Developer will discount homes at times, as you are witnessing.

NOT "Mrs. Doom" at all ! Just an astute individual that realizes this is only a piece of propaganda (and most people do not actually know the definition of "propaganda", many often think it is negative, but actually it just seeks to support a view. In world wars, various sides often create communications, written and oral, that "showcase" their philosophy or view. Bottom line, ANY piece of propaganda is NOT the place to look for an accurate picture (factual picture) of anything. Same with "studies", having been involved in a great deal of "research" during my university career, I shudder when I hear or read: "a recent study shows".... I can construct a format for a study to "show" what ever results you desire, and without anything deception or unethical in the eyes of most people. One just sets up the study carefully when selecting the variables to include, the selection of the control group, the standard deviation, the length of the study, etc. etc. When you read: "a recent study showed green beans are better for you than broccoli, don't think I'll change to green beans...LOL... look up the abstract of the "study" IF you can find it, check out all the variables I mentioned and more... same with assessing the true state of the real estate market in any area...

Very "normal" when they want to move homes on less desirable lots...

Yes
 

Yes, I realize that they have to reduce many new home prices with the large surplus inventory they are stuck with. Most will likely wait till the bottom is more evident in pricing though. I guess that’s why new home sales dropped so hard.

It all boils to the fact that there are numerous choices because of stagnation in movement while there is a climbing in inventory. .The buyer is in the driver’s seat in this crash. Why buy anything, let alone spec homes with a price tag over 2230 a square foot?

It doesn't appear to be the lots. Some very nice homes on nice lots have been discounted.