Bulk Mailing from Properties of The Villages.

Your 2023 vs 2022 comparison shows 15% fewer New Homes & Villas have closed in 3Q23 than in 3Q22. A 15% reduction sounds like a pretty big drop to me, and I would guess the new homes sales team is getting some pretty significant heat from their bosses...

Good catch. Falling demand could possibly cause a crash. Especially, if the falling demand is in the same area of the Villages. A reduction in prices of homes is not the only indicator of a crash.

It Depends
 

If The Developer wants to sit on the existing surplus of housing units and stick to their pricing points without reductions, then no, a crash wouldn’t occur. However, opportunity costs will stack up. The opportunity costs become real numbers with real consequences to the business that effect liquidity balances.

If The Developer eases prices downward (which they have on some units) the landing won’t be as dramatic. The amortization of value will result in some economic impact depending on volume of sales and expenses.

Now as the situation develops there is the aspect of potential customers. Is the economic streaming of potential buyers increasing (applying pressure on demand)? Currently most would say no because of interest rates, reduced buying power (inflation), a shrinking upper class, and investment groups withdrawing from the market.

It is interesting to watch the drama where we live right now. There is an overall slowing of the economy felt both nationally and in this locus at the micro level. Federal Reserve movements of interest rates can do a lot. Inflation is abating (currently ~ 3.5%) but it has to slow further.

If you were a potential buyer right now, and cared about your money (home as an investment), it would be a poor choice to purchase a home in these conditions which appear to be worsening. If you are a potential buyer who doesn’t care about the funds(example a vacation budget) then buy away. Most are not in the second category.

By the way, your point is key to the entire discussion. The Developer for the most part only controls the “new” house market. That is where the 14.9 % decrease is demonstrated. Actual drops should be more dramatic in this following quarter. July and August were more prominent months that kept September buoyant with the mean (average).

I believe the Developer's plan is to reduce some homes while increasing the price of others.
By doing this, he can attempt to control his market. I will not be surprised if the price of new homes near Eastport are raised. Buyers experiencing FOMO will eagerly line up. This would get his lower-priced inventory in Lake Denham and Dabney quickly sold. The developer holds all the cards.

As one poster suggested, you would have to painstakingly watch every new home for fluctuations in price. I am trusting my instincts. If I sense trouble, it is probably there. I will not be buying an investment property. The concept of holding the home for a year, then flip it, may no longer work. There is always a price that turns the majority of buyers (and renters) away. I believe we are nearing that threshold.

Wasn’t Q3 and Q4 2022 the timing of Richmond opening up?
Are there any areas available now that are as hot as Richmond was last year?

Developer knows this and priced Richmond accordingly. Wait until this report comes out after areas near Eastport start selling

Location, Location, Location

Whether we call it a "crash", or merely acknowledge that the market is a lot softer than it was 2 years ago, I pose a question or two for those who have spent some time pondering this situation:

1. Is the relative softness reflecting a drop in the interest of those wishing to buy with the intention of either moving here immediately, or eventually, i.e. using the home as their own,

or,

2. Has TV become less attractive to the investment buyer?

I'll throw a 3rd question in as well:

3. As someone who bought a place "between the 6s", with the first intention, does this really matter to me?

?
 

If we are living here why would we care about this? Might as well tell me how many cars are sold I don't want that either

I get the impression that there are a couple of posters who haven't bought in yet, want to buy in, but want to time their purchase at the bottom of a price cycle.

It can be done, but it requires as much luck as anything else. To me, it's more about buying at the right time of one's life than about trying to time the market to save a few % off the purchase price.

Some insight for you... many Villagers, in their wisdom, leveraged their bets by putting a mortgage on their homes and invested money in the "never fail" stock market. There are also many homeowners in The Villages who invested in the housing market here and own many homes.

If prices drop too much, many people will be upside down on their homes with the mortgage higher than the value of the home. Mortgage repayment failures equal nonpayment of amenity fees, taxes and general downturn in The Villages where you live. The whole picture of success of The Villages is dependent on a viable economy and not financial failure.

Not sure from where you’re pulling the word “contingent” as there are NO contingent sales through the properties of The Villages. Contingent means a conditional sale…inspection, financing, whatever a buyer wants. Once contingencies are lifted, then a property goes “pending.” The Villages doesn’t play this game. You can either buy the house or you can’t. They’re not going to wait for you to sell your old one.

Unless your trying to sell your home why do you even care how well homes are selling?

It seems to me more likely that were foreclosures to occur, new buyers would buy at adjusted (lower) prices, and pick up the taxes and amenity fees. Just my opinion, of course, and it is based upon the belief that there will be demand for homes in TV for a long time to come, based upon retirement rates. What is in question is at what price point that demand will assert itself,, based upon market factors.

Still the new homes are construction cost plus pricing, and lower than the established neighborhoods older homes. .

Someone i recalled argued the opposite, and I used this data point as my source, and its a partial as the MLS portion is missing for a complete picture

Sold - money exchanged, title transferred.
Pending - money down, contract created, sale pending.
Contingent - "almost" pending, but some contingency has to be resolved. Often, a sale is pending contingent upon the buyer selling their house.