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golfing eagles 04-08-2020 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dewilson58 (Post 1742888)
:1rotfl:

Forced to laugh. It's like a doctor doing 90 surgeries because of pre-selected symptoms. If seven die, find another doctor.



And there is no P in Sumter.


Bad analogy. More like picking his worst 90 surgeries out of thousands and 7 died

Didn't see a "P" in any of my Sumters. Did you faux pas????:1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:

dewilson58 04-08-2020 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfing eagles (Post 1742896)
Bad analogy. More like picking his worst 90 surgeries out of thousands and 7 died

Didn't see a "P" in any of my Sumters. Did you faux pas????:1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:


:blahblahblah:

Wrong again.

biker1 04-08-2020 04:44 PM

You have me interested. What, precisely, is the hypothesis?

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfing eagles (Post 1742812)
Forced to disagree
7 deaths out of 90 positive tests out of 1013 tested.

That's 7.8% mortality among 90 positive tests that were for the most part pre-selected for symptoms.
I'd have to run a detailed statistical analysis to get a P value, but eyeballing it I doubt it is <0.05
There are a few on TOTV well versed in these types of statistics, would like to know what they think.


golfing eagles 04-08-2020 04:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by biker1 (Post 1742918)
You have me interested. What is the hypothesis?

I didn't think 7 deaths, 90 positive tests, and 1013 people tested was a large enough sample to draw the conclusion that a Sumter County resident has a 7.8% chance of dying if he/she contracts the virus, especially since it's a one off from the national and state averages. Somebody disagreed. He's one of the good guys, just wrong this time.

biker1 04-08-2020 06:13 PM

We are looking at an average age of 65+ for Sumter County (80% of Sumter County lives in The Villages). The sample size is small but we do know that age is a factor. If you are tested positive, I suspect you will have issues. I think the national and state averages are misleading unless age is factored in. I don't believe numbers from other countries are useful since their counting of deaths from coronavirus is different than ours. However, I suspect you are correct in your hypothesis.


Quote:

Originally Posted by golfing eagles (Post 1742919)
I didn't think 7 deaths, 90 positive tests, and 1013 people tested was a large enough sample to draw the conclusion that a Sumter County resident has a 7.8% chance of dying if he/she contracts the virus, especially since it's a one off from the national and state averages. Somebody disagreed. He's one of the good guys, just wrong this time.



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