What Happens at Build-Out?

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  #1  
Old 04-01-2013, 12:04 PM
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Default What Happens at Build-Out?

This topic was brought up in another thread (probably more that I simply haven't run across), and I think it is a fair question. I don't have any particular concern, but I can see how things would change, since the developer would no longer have the same interest...that of selling new homes.

If this topic has already been discussed, feel free to point me to those threads. But I'm just curious how the future is envisioned...will there still be nightly entertainment? Maintained recreation centers? Etc. Etc.? All the good stuff that TV is famous and loved for?
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Old 04-01-2013, 01:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Polar Bear View Post
This topic was brought up in another thread (probably more that I simply haven't run across), and I think it is a fair question. I don't have any particular concern, but I can see how things would change, since the developer would no longer have the same interest...that of selling new homes.

If this topic has already been discussed, feel free to point me to those threads. But I'm just curious how the future is envisioned...will there still be nightly entertainment? Maintained recreation centers? Etc. Etc.? All the good stuff that TV is famous and loved for?
The honest answer is nobody really knows. Here is a thread started in 2008. If you want to amuse yourself reading a LOT of threads on the subject just type in " buildout" in search above.

There are many who feel they know, but actually no one does.

http://www.talkofthevillages.com/for...ild-out-14736/
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Old 04-01-2013, 01:40 PM
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Since one does not really know, my guess is that things will be the same. I believe Mulligan commented the squares music would continue but maybe some festivals would go away as these are privately run enterprises. Please forgive if my words are not exactly the same.

I tend to think that a smrt business owner like Gary Morse and family who take pride in what they have built will let it be run down and become less of what they have envisioned.

At least, that is what I'm betting on.
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Old 04-01-2013, 02:21 PM
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There are of course people who think that the "build-out" will never end and that Morse & Co. will continue to buy a few hundred acres here and there, and TV will just be in a continual state of expansion. I do not think that vision will ever happen. It will end someday for any number of reasons.

I think that the other posters have so far given the correct answer.."Nobody knows". There are many, many factors to be considered as to when the build-out will end and why.

I personally wonder when the tipping-point comes where there are more pre-owned houses available than new ones, and wonder why people would buy a new one complete with a high bond when they could buy one that's lower priced with a paid-off bond? Plus how many people who live here now will pass their home to their children as part of their estate and thus short-circuit the buy & sell cycle in TV?

For 52 years my family had a summer home on a lake. Most of those homes have been passed from generation to generation to generation and nobody but family has ever lived in them. How likely is that to happen in TV?
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Old 04-01-2013, 02:40 PM
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Of course no one knows but ask yourself this question. Once the build out is done what will the developer do go out of business? The developer has a business that has taken many years to build and make as profitable as it now is, my guess is the developer will want to maintain that value. If the developer should decide to move on and build TV Texas or south Florida or whatever I doubt that they would want the reputation for building value and then all of that value disappears when the developer is done. If this was the case who would pay the extra money for that value in a new development? plus the developer has business interest in many forms in TV and you would think that the value of those business interest would be important to the developer.
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Old 04-01-2013, 02:48 PM
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I can't see the developer doing anything to tweak the cash cow he has built. He owns most of the commercial property with lucrative leases, including all along 466 and 441, liquor stores, liquor distributor, golf cart stores, hospital (which is run by others), real estate sales offices, commercial real estate sales/leasing company etc, etc, etc. Significant income for a large family, and growing constantly.
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Old 04-01-2013, 02:49 PM
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Default Build out will happen

Mack: I tend to agree with you that build out will come----and I basically mean the end of new homes being built and offered for sale in TV. Commercial build out will continue for several years following the build out of new homes. Commercial property in TV is what distinguishes TV from almost all other retirement communities. This is what will "tie" the developer to TV for many foreseeable years IMHO. Nobody has a crystal ball but it is a good bet that TV will continue to prosper and be a wonderful retirement community long after the build out of new homes.
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Old 04-01-2013, 03:07 PM
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All things equal, The Villages of Lake-Sumter, Inc. has a cash cow and won't let go unless it dries out which is unlikely. It will continue to build on every available inch it has or will purchase in the future. The demand for commercial buinesses will continue to grow because The Villages will continue to grow and as TV grows the surrounding area will also grow
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Old 04-01-2013, 03:18 PM
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the developer already has a track record for turning things over to differing organizations uninvolving their financial investment. Then there are the amenity related "businesses" like entertainment that one of the Morse insiders, Vesco, bought that part of it. There are non amenity moves like the newspaper being bought buy the lublisher Phil Marquard (sp?)....who ran it for the developer. And that will continue.
Of course as these ownwerships become profit generators and not sales and marketing tools for the developer, there will be changes....like the entertainment owners eliminating parades as they are too costly. And so on.

Of the many more changes to come I do not think any of them will pose any threat to the life style we all bought into. Change yes. Eliminate some things? Yes. But the basic life style will go on.

There is one business that will be interesting to see where it goes....if anywhere is TV Realty....you know the company that gets to sell the house they built for you....over and over....and over again. So there is an incentive for the basic life style package to go on indefinitely.

The baby boomer effect is just now starting to begin. Beyond build out the only home supply will be resales which by all counts one would expect there will be a supply and demand problem. Many baby boomers for the not so many homes available on an ongoing basis. Prices will go up....great for us all. And even better for TV Realty as they get even higher matrgins over and over again everytime they sell one of our homes.

That piece alone might be sufficent for the developer and his family to remain involved on a different level....one that still generates millions and millions of $$$$ in profit.

That is my perspective on what the future may hold for TV and it's residents.

btk

PS there was a bit in the main street evening news last week stating there are 10,000 baby boomers retiring.....PER DAY!!!!
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Old 04-01-2013, 04:05 PM
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Old 04-01-2013, 04:16 PM
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Billethkid - you are absolutely right!!! There is a HUGE cash cow built into TV resale of all this real estate. I understand, but cannot confirm, the commission is now the same on a new home or a resale. If so, they are definitely gearing up for what is to come. And I also agree the prices will probably substantially increase if in fact a build-out is a reality. So those of us that are here can probably sit back and enjoy the ride!

Guess I prefer to see the glass half full!
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Old 04-01-2013, 04:32 PM
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I saw 987 acres for sale on 466A just down the road from the Colony Shopping Center. Appears there is additional land available if the developer is willing to pay the price.
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Old 04-01-2013, 05:17 PM
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I saw 987 acres for sale on 466A just down the road from the Colony Shopping Center. Appears there is additional land available if the developer is willing to pay the price.
The land you are referring to is in Lake County and I've heard it mentioned numerous time here on TOTV that the powers to be in TV will not develop in Lake County any more. I don't remember the reason, but maybe someone will chime in who does know.
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Old 04-01-2013, 07:09 PM
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The land you are referring to is in Lake County and I've heard it mentioned numerous time here on TOTV that the powers to be in TV will not develop in Lake County any more. I don't remember the reason, but maybe someone will chime in who does know.
What I have heard was that Lake County would not allow CDDs to be formed. Don't know if this is true or not, but it seems plausible.
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Old 04-01-2013, 08:13 PM
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One poster mentioned that Morse Industries might go and build a TV-Texas or something similar. I have a feeling that the days of big developments such as TV are over.

First..the land for TV was bought on the cheap a long time ago before people figured out just what TV would amount to and before every building project needed 18 different levels of environmental studies. Today you'd have a hard time buying that amount of land at the prices that were originally paid and then getting past all the various governmental "reviews".

Then would come the environmental-types demanding all sorts of studies and permits and then would come the lawsuits for interfering with the breeding grounds of the pink-spotted 7-legged cockroach, and then would come more lawsuits about water usage and so on. In short..it would very likely be an unprofitable venture by the time all the lawsuits, permits and such would be settled.

So it is much more likely that instead of looking to other places and the hassles that would come with it, Morse Industries would keep a firm hand on TV and it's commercial enterprises since they already have a good grip on it now.
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