[graciegirl]

Originally Posted by Chi33

I cannot see how 50,000 new homes could be a positive.

'What if' they built 50,000 more homes? There would be more scams, more crime, how would The Villages handle 75,000 more people? Build double the amount of golf courses that we currently have? The 'good' landscapers would charge a lot more if you could get them to do the landscaping, so people would have to rely on sub-standard quality of work for more cost. If there were 50,000 more homes, and the same or very slightly increased number of amenities, why would the housing market for seniors increase. They would have to build more homes, and cheaper homes, for all the employees needed, and I don't feel I would would like The Villages having more children, adult children, living here. Take inclusivity away and all you have is a regular city... say like Ocala or Leesburg. If I wanted that I would have moved there. There is a lot more crime outside the villages, so why would you want more people, 50,000 more homes full of people, plus all their problems, to move here?

I, for one, am happy with the current size and what we get (pools, golf, town squares) and wouldn't like double the size without double everything else.

Florida is going to get some of the ten thousand Boomers who are retiring every day for the next 12 years. If The Villages didn't build some fly by night crummy developer would build and probably right next to us. Florida has become the THIRD most populous state in the U.S. People are moving here in droves.

Read what the OP says.

[Rapscallion St Croix]

Too Big To Fail

[New Englander]

Originally Posted by Rapscallion St Croix

Too Big To Fail

You mean like the investment banks?

[vintageogauge]

Originally Posted by Chi33

I cannot see how 50,000 new homes could be a positive.

'What if' they built 50,000 more homes? There would be more scams, more crime, how would The Villages handle 75,000 more people? Build double the amount of golf courses that we currently have? The 'good' landscapers would charge a lot more if you could get them to do the landscaping, so people would have to rely on sub-standard quality of work for more cost. If there were 50,000 more homes, and the same or very slightly increased number of amenities, why would the housing market for seniors increase. They would have to build more homes, and cheaper homes, for all the employees needed, and I don't feel I would would like The Villages having more children, adult children, living here. Take inclusivity away and all you have is a regular city... say like Ocala or Leesburg. If I wanted that I would have moved there. There is a lot more crime outside the villages, so why would you want more people, 50,000 more homes full of people, plus all their problems, to move here?

I, for one, am happy with the current size and what we get (pools, golf, town squares) and wouldn't like double the size without double everything else.

Here's the thing. You don't have to come down here, south of 44 might well be just as large as north of 44, there will be just as many golf courses, rec. centers, squares, etc. for everyone that moves in down south. The family to date has been very good in planning, maybe they already have plans outside TV for lower priced housing for all of the workers that will be in the area, there are lots of places for people to live in the area without actually being in TV and this is good for all of those communities, Coleman, Wildwood, Leesburg, Sumterville, etc., etc, etc, this is a good thing and should not impact our way of life within TV and should really help the outside communities. I am totally for growth so that more retirees can have the same lifestyle as all of us that are already here.

[ColdNoMore]

Originally Posted by vintageogauge

Here's the thing. You don't have to come down here, south of 44 might well be just as large as north of 44, there will be just as many golf courses, rec. centers, squares, etc. for everyone that moves in down south. The family to date has been very good in planning, maybe they already have plans outside TV for lower priced housing for all of the workers that will be in the area, there are lots of places for people to live in the area without actually being in TV and this is good for all of those communities, Coleman, Wildwood, Leesburg, Sumterville, etc., etc, etc, this is a good thing and should not impact our way of life within TV and should really help the outside communities. I am totally for growth so that more retirees can have the same lifestyle as all of us that are already here.

It very well might be, just as it might very well not be...at least in the average lifespan left.

The elephant in the room of course is...how long would that take?

Even if it were to happen in the next dozen years (highly unlikely), that's 12 years lost in doing what those of us between CR-42 and CR-44...can already do every day.

I can see how those currently in Fenney who don't like to golf, and/or don't mind driving their cars to most every regulation course, don't mind not being able to use their cart for a plethora of shopping/eating/etc. and who will eventually have a long golf cart ride to get just to Brownwood and are comfortable with being in the 'suburbs' of the heart of The Villages for at least another decade...could be satisfied.

Even though I'm only in my low 60's and could even possibly have another 25+ quality years left (wishful thinking I'm sure ), I'm personally not willing to roll those dice just to enjoy those things I enjoy now...for a few years at the end of my life.

[vintageogauge]

Originally Posted by ColdNoMore

It very well might be, just as it might very well not be...at least in the average lifespan left.

The elephant in the room of course is...how long would that take?

Even if it were to happen in the next dozen years (highly unlikely), that's 12 years lost in doing what those of us between CR-42 and CR-44...can already do every day.

I can see how those currently in Fenney who don't like to golf, and/or don't mind driving their cars to most every regulation course, don't mind not being able to use their cart for a plethora of shopping/eating/etc. and who will eventually have a long golf cart ride to get just to Brownwood and are comfortable with being in the 'suburbs' of the heart of The Villages for at least another decade...could be satisfied.

Even though I'm only in my low 60's and could even possibly have another 25+ quality years left (wishful thinking I'm sure ), I'm personally not willing to roll those dice just to enjoy those things I enjoy now...for a few years down the road.

True, time more than anything else is very important to those of us living here. I do think though that in 3 years there will be much to do down here that will be golf car accessible including at least one regulation course and a reasonable amount of retail and restaurants. Will take longer to get everything but 3 years will be much different than today. I don't mind driving a car north and don't think we are missing anything by being down here but then again I don't golf.

[rjn5656]

Well put. Thank you.

[patfla06]

Goldwingnut - thank you for a well thought out post.

[kcrazorbackfan]

Originally Posted by Wiotte

I feel like I’ve been in a required business meeting. Where’s the coffee and pastries ?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Goldwingnut]

Originally Posted by Rapscallion St Croix

Too Big To Fail

I don't see it that way. The developer has demonstrated some very strategic planning recently. 18 months ago they received a large infusion of cash from the amenities sale and instead of ramping up the rate of construction it appears to have held it constant or even scaled back the number of new homes annually by a few percentage points. They are instead, it appears, investing substantial sums into land purchase for the purposes of long term sustainability. The land will never get any cheaper so buying it up now and building on it later is an investment in future profits.

Having a demonstrated long term plan in and of itself will continue to bring in more retirees and buyers, new and resale, as the new comers, just like all of us here now, will be concerned about property values. As TV continues to grow resales will outpace new home sales simply because there's going to be more of us to die off making more properties available from a bigger pool. The continued new growth and innovations will keep TV interesting to new comers and while many may prefer new homes history has demonstrated that just as many, if not more, will also appreciate the value of upgrades, mature landscaping, and established neighborhoods and commercial areas.

They proved in the recession of 08 that they could weather the economic storms and still grow and attract new residents. There will be more storms in the future and the community growth and being economically strong will help us all through difficult times - sustained property values would help maintain available cash flow through equity for HELOC's, RM's, and in some cases outright sale of a home when other investment values drop substantially.

TBTF is not an attitude, in my opinion, that is being displayed, if anything the developer appears to be shoring up their company to be better prepared for hard times in the future. Planning, so the scenarios of my original post don't play out here in TV.

[Laker14]

Once upon a time, TV was a relatively small, but densely constructed island within a large rural area. As TV continues to grow, it becomes a larger densely constructed (and densely populated) area, and the people living closer to the center of that large densely populated area are more isolated from the TV-rural boundary.

It seems logical to me that at some point the strain on the ecosystem (water supply and water table come immediately to mind), and the need to navigate among a higher population will impact the living experience, especially of those living closer to the center of the mass, particularly during the snowbird season.

Someone made a joking reference a few posts back about the LEI, and of course that's an exaggeration, but, I don't see how the winter congestion can avoid continuing to become more of an issue as the area of tightly packed housing doubles over the next decade.

[Kazmi]

Originally Posted by skyking

I don't have a strong opinion about whether growth is good or not but I don't understand those who think there will not be enough stores, services, etc. if The Villages continues to grow. Where have you ever seen population growth without corresponding business growth? "Demand" brings "Supply".
Economics 101.

I couldn't agree more!

[pauld315]

Prior to moving to The Villages, I lived in a very fast growing area of the country. Our county had growth of, on average, 68 people per day, everyday for the entire 26 years I lived there. Our little "town" in that county grew from 50000 to over 200000 during that time period. Much of the new development was done south of where I lived very similar to here. As the town grew, it didn't affect my life at all. Most people tend to stay withing 5 to 10 miles of their home most of the time when they are retired in a populated area. I doubt I will ever spend much time south of 44 and I will stick mostly to about 5 miles around my home just as I did in my previous hometown. I would rather see them building than tearing down eyesores and losing population like they are doing in the city I was born in up in upstate NY.

[2BNTV]

Originally Posted by Goldwingnut

Perhaps it's time to look at what would happen if construction of TV actually stopped.

The impact on the local economy would be devastating.

• First there is the primary construction business - the actual building of the homes - several thousand would be out of work in the construction trades in the local area.
• Then there is the suppliers and supporting trades for the construction businesses, these would be left without a revenue source and would shutter their doors and lay off workers.
• The secondary construction market - landscaping, pools, add-ons, floor tile, etc. - without the continued supply of new homes people want customized after they move in these businesses will also go under, adding more to the unemployment picture. Have you ever wondered why after a new area is open for sale the lift gates don't need the access cards for the first 12-18 months, this operation is called construction mode and is to limit the calls to Community Watch to open the gates because of all the secondary construction that is going on.

With the loss of employment and good paying jobs two key things start to happen:

• The inevitable rise in crime will occur in the area and spread quickly like a disease.
• People will move away to find employment elsewhere.

The rise in crime is multi-faceted issue with the most obvious being robbery followed by scams and disreputable contractors. That's the easy part to predict.

The victims of this crime will be easy to predict, the easy targets, those less physically and mentally able to defend themselves, and those with assets less affected by a construction downturn. This would be The Villages itself, all of us living here today. The physical aspects of our aging make us easy victims. As a group, the residents here are intelligent and self-motivated people who have been successful in life and are now enjoying the fruits of their lifelong labors. Translation: most of us here are less able to physically defend ourselves against attackers and people here have money and pretty shiny things the criminals want.

For those that would not desire to stoop to physical confrontation there are a lot of easy targets yet to be had. Take a walk down your street at dusk this time of year, how many homes here are empty as our seasonal neighbors have gone back north? They pretty furnishing and belongings are easy pickings. It doesn't take an Al Monday or a Danny Ocean to rob a house, just a foot, rock, or a hammer will get you into most homes.

Of course, the homes of our seasonal neighbors are a great target themselves for other reasons. The unemployed have difficulties making the mortgage and rent payments. Here sits hundreds of homes, fully and nicely furnished with the utilities still on just welcoming squatters to move in. We're not a gated community and security is minimal from Sumter County and Community Watch. Evicting your new squatter neighbor is very very difficult.

Another layer to the picture is the surrounding businesses - restaurants, stores, services, medical/health care, etc. - these will also see a decrease in business causing many to close down. The realities of today's economics is that in a family, both spouses work and if one loses their job and they decide to move to greener pastures both leave and a vacancy exists in another business now. Many local businesses will be without the needed workers to support their remaining customers.

These changes in local economics would obviously make TV a less desirable location to live. Home values would be impacted as well as quality of life. This would ripple down to the coffers of the local governments and the services provided.

I could go on for pages more on this topic but I think most will get the picture I am painting here. This isn't some doom and gloom fantasy I've made up in my head. This has played out time and again throughout the country as factories, steel mills, auto plants, military base, and other local and regional economic drivers close down or move on. The extreme example of this is Detroit as the auto industry moved away.

Florida will continue to grow for may years to come, currently about 1000 people a day move here. A very small portion of these move to TV. Buying a seasonal home is not counted by the state as moving to Florida, just additional tax dollars, so the growth from TV is even smaller a percentage that what it may seem. The growth we see here is well organized and planned unlike the sprawl that has consumed the southeast Florida coast, the Orlando, Tampa, and Jacksonville areas, and the other major population centers of the state. The homes being built here are also resource efficient in both power and water usage (I don't want to get into the water issues here), making them more attractive than other areas to those on a fixed income.

What is happening here with the VOSO growth is no different than what happened 15+ years ago when the growth between CR466 and SR44. The biggest difference now is that information is more readily accessible and all within the city limits of Wildwood. When Harold Schwartz and Gary Morse started buying up the rural county land in the 90's to go all the way to SR44 few paid attention nor anticipated the grand plans they both had in mind. These plans are still unfolding before us today.

What does 50,000 new homes do for us, the current residents of TV? It means continued strong economic growth and stability for the next 20+ years. It means a stable growing market (and values) for both new and resale homes - not everyone wants a new home or to live in the newer areas. It means that wanted and needed services continue to grow for just like in the move, if you build it, they will come. In the day-to-day living here new homes have little impact on our lives as there is a process of decoupling that goes on in a community this size. What happens in Fenney has virtually no impact on what happens in LSL. What happens in SS is of little concern to those in the Brownwood area, and vice-versa. Few will venture excessive distances to do trivia, water aerobics, or pickleball, and they don’t need to because what most people want is already nearby them. It does open more opportunities and creative avenues that may not have been thought of 20, 15, 10, or even 5 years ago.

If your realtor used the term "build-out" they were either a liar or an uninformed fool and didn't have a clue about their market. Build-out means to a developer - I can do no more here and am moving on. Long term plans for TV are tightly guarded secrets that only a few know, and only enough is revealed to keep the plan moving. We don't get so see all the secrets all at once, we don't get to know how many more golf courses are going to be built, we don't get to know what retail establishments they are courting, and we never will. What we do see is a well-run business with a track record and plan that is second to none in their industry. It’s doubtful they’ll turn away from a successful plan that has worked for 30+ years, but I would expect changes to adjust to the market and needs of new arrivals.

For those that beat the drum of “it’s too big” and “stop building” I would suggest you take a long look at the bigger picture of what is happening here and what it means long term. Truly, what doesn’t grow surely will die.

I could be completely wrong here, for which my wife would as usual not let me forget, but I think not.

Today's DS stated home values are increasing and taxes are probably going lower due to the additional building of homes.

I remember a poster many years ago stating that when build-out was completed, the developer would leave and TV would get get run down and people would start leaving in droves. Well build-out is nowhere in site and maybe a myth. The Morse family has shown a dedication to keeping TV pristine and thriving, by building the needed amenities and attracting businesses.

I hope to live to see build-out.

[ColdNoMore]

Originally Posted by 2BNTV

Snip>I hope to live to see build-out. <Snip

Wouldn't we all...wouldn't we all!!!


Then all of us that 'got in early' and bought north of Clermont, could then claim to be part of the very first...





...'100+ retirement community.'