Wow that is some crystal ball you must have. Can you also predict the weather?

In going to be boldly honest about our FIRST HAND experience. We bought btw 466 &466a because we liked the house, the street, the Rec Ctrs and other established Amenities.

Here's what we have found with old and established... as opposed to New Construction, which we are very familiar with, from our past:

We had a $$$Home Inspection done, which was recommended by a Village Top Seller salesperson.

Now, we get it, he wasn't going to be a DEAL BREAKER, so he told us everything was A-OK, almost perfect!
Not at all true.

Were going on our 3rd year...
•Roof had to be replaced to get Insurance
•Hot water tank had to be replaced, as others all around us were beginning to fail.
• HVAC REPLACED after several service calls, due to system fails

The neighbors are just okay...but we've adjusted right from the start.

They are older, have been there and done it all, so the proverbial statements prevail...
Ohhh, it's so____, so we don't do that anymore. (FILL in the blanks.) Etc.

Here's what we've found with established neighbors in OUR otherwise lovely established neighborhood, to be truthful.

They're old, and REALLY act like it.
Please don't shoot the truth teller.
NOW, does it matter to us?
Not really, but we'd much rather place ourselves around vibrant, happy people.

We join the neighbors in their driveway to sit out and the social time is spent talking about their medical conditions and frailities.
I world much rather hear about a nice club, a good restaurant, recent experience, a Florida treasure, a fun town, than stories about doctors. OMG.

Now, we take Full Responsibility because we've been coming to TV to visit friends for many years, so we saw this pattern with people, as they age out of doing Fun Stuff.
I'd Buy a New Constuction in a N.Y. Minute, If I had it to do over again. The Village Developers are so Awesome, they will catch it up with Shopping, dining, Amenities. You have the time to be in the ground floor. YOU'LL love it!!
Good Luck to you!!
* I waited...to write this to you because the established TOTV readers usually read this site with their morning coffee... so we're past that period.
I didn't want to hear a lot of... well, if you dislike your neighbors so much- move statements.
It's not 'dislike', it's more that we're where they were 10-20 years ago... enjoying early retirement and having fun.
(Don't mean to insult anyone. )

Choosing neighbors/neighborhoods is not easy anywhere. There’s enough on here for you to digest so I guess my only constructive advice is....if you can identify them, stay away from those that tell you not to move to a neighborhood who’s 20 year neighbor (USP Coleman) has been housed long before TV developed their side of the acreage. Your a younger guy, I think you understand my point!

You certainly have lucked into a lousy neighborhood, and that is why you should get to know your neighbors before you move in. When you have an emergency or need something it isn’t your pickleball club etc from the rec center that is going to come and help you. It’s going to be the people next door. You better get to know them.

Go to the area where you enjoy your surroundings, the “atmosphere.” We don’t own there but have been renting for years. We always rent in the Lake Sumter area bc we love the beauty of the mature trees and other vegetation. Spanish Springs is lovely too. Last year we took a tour south of Brownwood and it was like a different world. I’m sure you have or will see what I am talking about.You will make friends wherever you settle.

Or, in january, interest rates drop and prices don’t drop

Not necessarily. I know of two people who have been run out of their neighborhood in The Villages, one was in the historic area and she moved to the very north part. The other one, actually a couple, was in the north west area of the Villages and that family moved to Mallory. I think it was how they treated their dogs because we saw it at Mallory too. But ours is a different neighborhood and after months of “gentle nudging” by neighbors they started to fit in. Everyone’s back to being content again. They are now invited to all the socials etc.

North of 466, and to some extent north of 466A, there is no bond to worry about on the property. Def south of 44 all homes have bonds to pay also, plus you'll either be in Wildwood or Lady Lake jurisdiction and have to pay city tax in addition to county tax. Amenities like shopping, grocery, and restaurants will be slow to come way south because entities wait until there is sufficient population to support them investing themselves. The amenities like golf, rec centers, etc., will be in place when they start selling homes. If you want mature landscaping and areas with good growth of community landscaping you'll want to consider north of 44. South you'll have far less large mature landscaping and a lot of new homes will have very basic landscaping, which will be an additional cost to you if you want to upgrade. I live near Spanish Springs and have every shopping entity I need within a 10 minute golf cart ride, with grocery, pharmacy, and restaurants within 3-4 mins by golf cart. You'll find the majority of golf courses north of 44 also if golf is a strong interest of yours. Same for entertainment venues. The reason to move south is because you just want a new home...otherwise consider looking in the more mature areas north of 466A. As far as meeting people and gaining friends, I think anywhere you move in The Villages you'll find people you can associate with...we're all very friendly here for the most part.

Drops
 

For sure drops can happen either way. Home price drops could be gradual in a month or two. An interest rate cut by the Fed could be immediate or next Spring.

No…lol
 

Moodys housing market analytics, integration of FRED stats, inventory and the compressed aggregation of US Treasury bills vs Fed lending rates with broader payroll data all help model pricing moves.

Anyone that tells you the market is going to be better in six months is a liar. Note Tampa and the Miami Lauderdale market problems. Other negative impacts on our Florida market are the condo and insurance issues.

It ain’t gettin any sweeter anytime soon.

Maybe you should buy right now? I’ll bet almost all say ,”NO”

In fact EVERYONE’S crystal ball should say,”Now is not the time to sell or buy..”

Totally agree with this post. Others can only offer suggestions, but bottom line, only you can really decide. Existing homes have many advantages (just had dinner with a real estate agent friend last week who related the enormous cost of bonds on the new homes, but to many this is of no concern). We found a new home had a long list of expenditures that are not always considered, just small things like additional shelving, knee walls or enclosed lanai's, driveway additions, landscaping over and above the minimum of a new model, and much more. Some will advise a new home in a new village for neighbor's of similar age; but that is often misleading too. Many existing homes in older neighborhoods have changed metrics, plus, NEVER buy a home due to the neighbors/neighborhood, can change totally in a matter of months. Go with the "when I see it I'll know it's the one for me". So many groups and activities for socializing, I'd advise you not rely on that as a major variable, go more on your interests: travel, golf, scuba, tennis, photography, ballroom dance, or softball to name a TINY few. Changes are your social life will revolve around your interests not your address, but by posting you will certainly get enough replies to confuse you...LOL !

You know that I disagree. The person who will give you a ride if you need it to the bus depot is not going to be the guy you played water volleyball with. It’s going to be the lady next door. The person who lends you a part to your AC in an emergency is not going to be your pickle ball buddy, but the guy across the street. The person who brings you the AED should something happen, my husband needed it at age 62 when he had never had any health issues to that day, is going to be the closest neighbor who has one. And so on. A few neighbors may change but not your whole street in your life time.

I can see housing prices drop some more but not as much as your prediction. Happy in house and see no reason to buy another one

TV location
 

I noticed that no one mention location of Orlando or the Orlando airport. probably 20-25 miles closer south of 44 or Warm Springs

You will easily make numerous friends in The Villages wherever you live. More important that you like your house and its location, the older areas being closer to businesses which you will use. Since you are in your 50's, you may be able to wait the 10+ years for major stores below the turnpike. It took 5 years just to get a gas station at Magnolia Plaza.

Plenty of good, fun people here. Everybody has an interesting life story.

Suggest to be careful building your social circle around neighbors.

I've seen several instances where the entire neighborhood were good buddies, then some start getting too much in your business, feelings get hurt, things get nasty and people have to move.

I'll be your friend, Stu...:p

While not the same age difference, we also had no problems making friends in our (re-sale) home...

Of course, it's my wife who is the social director, so she meets our new neighbors first (probably a good thing...:o)

So much incorrect information in that post...

But let the North/South bashing begin!

We have those same block parties monthly in my village just north of 44... My neighbor across the street and another down the street have loaned me tools and offered to help with my DYI projects...

People are people where ever you go...

I call this the war of Northern aggression.

Not the old North v South historical battles either. It's now shrunk to a North of 44 v South of 44 geographical one. Phew!

Thanks for all the great info - lots of good points. I have lots of interests, so I expect i'll get to know folks through various activities. Plus I have a very good friend who already lives there. I agree with some that in a pinch its your close neighbors that might be the most 'useful', or that I might be the most useful to; plus its them that you do the impromptu driveway happy hours with, and the ones that watch you house while your away. So great neighbors are important. Its a good suggestion to make a point to actually meet them prior to buying.

I have visited TV twice, for a total of ~9 days. Plus I am a native Floridian who went to the Mid-east for a few decades for career/family/divorce, but is ready to return to the more care-free Fl lifestyle. So I have a good feel for what I'm getting in to. I am working with a TV realtor. At this point, thanks to your inputs, I think i'm as torn between the North/South, new-neighborhood/old, as much as before. ...Heh. No knock on your comments, but they seem to balance each other out pretty well. It'll likely come down to the first house I find that meets my requirements. But your opinions helps solidify that decision!

I'm not sure if it's the couple White Russians I've had (my current drink of choice), the fantastic weather I am experiencing here in NVa right now, your great responses, or what, but I'm super pumped to get down there and start having some fun with you folks! Thks again for sharing your opinions. Hope to see you later this year

Except the poster to whom I responded to was from the south, bashing the north...

And just like the old war, I'm right on the border, living just north of 44 in TV (my home in MD is just outside of DC, which is actually south of the Mason-Dixon line).

Minor detail. lol

///////////////

And how exactly do you do that?

Learn to play, if you don't know already, pickleball, softball and golf. You'll do great.

I spent time at the neighborhood pool talking to the residents. Talked to people walking around with or without their dogs, in the neighborhood. Asked around. Watched and observed. I got a good sense of what kind of people lived around, and their politics (I don’t take sides) the kind of work they retired from, and a bit of their values, their favorite activities etc. For example, we have almost no “swingers”. We do have one couple but they are super discreet. We have singles but “not looking” types and mostly happily married couples.

All this as a lay person?
Herbert Hoover had nothing on you! ;)

maybe
 

The old story is buy new and everybody is new like you and looking to meet someone. But not much below hwy 44 just houses compared to golf stores restaurants above. BUT get into your neighborhood golf groups and other groups and meet people. But if you are a snowbird maybe you won't get here until Eastport is flying years later

*J. Edgar Hoover

All it took was talking to a few individuals. Everyone seems to know everyone. One time I complimented a lady I didn’t know, on her choice of little dogs. The next day there was a knock on my door, one of our regular “walkers” came by to tell me the lady sent me the name of the breeder she got the dog from - in case I was interested. Everyone knows everybody pretty well, here. If you want to be “private” this probably isn’t your area.

Proximity to the Turnpike can be a game changer, if you do a lot of travelling, or if you have family in other parts of Florida. In the Dabney area, you'll be just a few minutes from the highway entry. Where I am (in the Historic section) it takes me almost an hour to get to the Turnpike for travel south, mostly because traffic between us and Leesburg on 441 is horrendous.

Three new golf courses will be opening up in the South very soon.

Finding friends here is not a problem in either situation. Best focus on all the other pros and cons that will be mentioned in the replies here and decide which of those are important to you. It boils down to the North side being convenient to everything as well as buying an overpriced resale will need extensive and costly renovations while the south side is the reverse on both of those while also having turn Pike noise and high power transmissions lines to experience on a daily basis.

Keep in mind it’s easy to move within The Villages. It’s not as if this has to be your forever home. I would probably rent for a year in an area where you think you would want to buy. You don’t have to worry about maintenance or insurance and you have an opportunity to really get a feel for the Villages, what It’s like owning here, Which areas have the highest cost, and maybe even find a good deal. Good luck.������

I would like to give you a tale of two stories.
My sister moved to TV 16 years ago into a new neighborhood. Their whole street made instant friends and a social club and most were in their early to mid sixties. Of course, my sister and her husband "weeded out" a few people, but overall they have retained their friendships. This has really been helpful having a support group as there were several deaths during COVID.
Now the second story. My husband and myself moved here 3 years ago into an established community between 466a and 44 of residents younger than us. Our community is very active socially, with a golf league and driveway parties throughout the year. We have attempted to join in, but although the people are very nice, we can't seem to break into any the established circles of "friends". We have been able to make friends outside of our neighborhood through meeting people on the golf courses.

I would focus on the house as much as the location. Some homes up north were built before the last round of building code changes and may be problematic to insure. Factor in age of the roof and HVAC too. The upper area has more mature growth and looks nice, but, IMO, designs (footprints, finishes, etc.) are somewhat dated, but there are many pretty areas. We purchased well south, since we wanted newer floorplans and that's the direction TV is growing. Golf is sparser atm and golfcart accessible shopping is more limited, but we all spent most of our lives without a golfcart, so not a big deal IMO. I don't think it matters much where you live when it comes to meeting people. We've found that you almost have to be hiding to not meet people. There are so many clubs, pools, activities, Town Squares, etc.! As for the Squares, I think you'll have many more rental homes near them, so consistent fulltime neighbors were a concern for us. Good luck, and meeting people shouldn't be high on your concerns.