[GrumpyOldMan]

Originally Posted by MDLNB

Sounds a bit like someone is really reaching to convince. Fear tactics? I doubt if suggesting "impotence" is going to scare seniors into changing their view on this.

Refreshing, I was called a fear monger when the COVID pandemic started because I posted explanations of how exponential growth worked, and how without sufficient intervention we could see 500,000 deaths in the US by the end of the year. Hmmm.

Now, I am accused of "fear tactics".

Thank you, and it really is just like the seasonal flu - both are viruses how bad could it be...

[tuccillo]

No, that is not correct. The "5%" or "95%" number is from the Phase 3 trials and is the efficacy of the vaccine (Pfizer and Moderna have about the same number but the testing conditions were a bit different). The efficacy is the ratio of the number of positive cases from the test group and the number of positive cases from the control group and is statistically significant. This represents the reduction in the probability of you developing COVID if you are exposed and if you are fully vaccinated when compared to someone who wasn't vaccinated. This represents a 20x reduction in the probability. The breakthrough infections for the Phase 3 test group was about 0.02%; nowhere near 5%. The breakthrough percentage for the approximately 100M fully vaccinated is about 0.008%.

Originally Posted by coffeebean

The vaccine has an effect in everyone who is vaccinated. The 5% is the percentage of people who experience breakthrough infection. Even those people are protected against mild to moderate symptoms of Covid and best yet, those people are protected from dying. Real life effectiveness of the mRNA vaccines have actually shown to be more protective than the efficacy in the trials. Win win for the vaccinated folks.

[golfing eagles]

Originally Posted by tuccillo

No, that is not correct. The "5%" or "95%" number is from the Phase 3 trials and is the efficacy of the vaccine (Pfizer and Moderna have about the same number but the testing conditions were a bit different). The efficacy is the ratio of the number of positive cases from the test group and the number of positive cases from the control group. This represents the reduction in the probability of you developing COVID if you are exposed and if you are fully vaccinated when compared to someone who wasn't vaccinated. This represents a 20x reduction in the probability. The breakthrough infections for the Phase 3 test group was about 0.02%; nowhere near 5%. The breakthrough percentage for the approximately 100M fully vaccinated is about 0.008%.

Absolutely!!!! But this is the semantic distinction that some "grumpy" people are trying to make. Yes, mathematically 0.008% is not zero. But in the real world of epidemiology it is hardly worth mentioning the difference. And please, no one now state that if you are the 1 in 13,000 breakthrough cases, of which almost none die, that it is worth mentioning. You cannot dictate national or international policy based on a miniscule number of cases

[coffeebean]

Originally Posted by tuccillo

No, that is not correct. The "5%" or "95%" number is from the Phase 3 trials and is the efficacy of the vaccine (Pfizer and Moderna have about the same number but the testing conditions were a bit different). The efficacy is the ratio of the number of positive cases from the test group and the number of positive cases from the control group and is statistically significant. This represents the reduction in the probability of you developing COVID if you are exposed and if you are fully vaccinated when compared to someone who wasn't vaccinated. This represents a 20x reduction in the probability. The breakthrough infections for the Phase 3 test group was about 0.02%; nowhere near 5%. The breakthrough percentage for the approximately 100M fully vaccinated is about 0.008%.

I guess I have misunderstood the 95% efficacy all along then? I am aware that real life efficiency of these mRNA vaccines is an 0.008% break through rate (thanks to GE who has posted this stat many times on this forum). Actually, that latest stat I have read for break through infection percentage is 0.009% as of about three days ago.

[tuccillo]

The drug companies and the media did not do a good job of explaining efficacy, how it was computed, and what it actually means from a statistical perspective.

The breakthrough rate is probably too low and will increase with time. However, it probably will never increase to a point where you need to worry about it. Once vaccinated, your chance of developing COVID is extremely remote. It was good to see the CDC actually acknowledge this by issuing new guidelines.

Originally Posted by coffeebean

I guess I have misunderstood the 95% efficacy all along then? I am aware that real life efficiency of these mRNA vaccines is an 0.008% break through rate (thanks to GE who has posted this stat many times on this forum). Actually, that latest stat I have read for break through infection percentage is 0.009% as of about three days ago.

[Neils]

Covid will never go away. Generates too much media attention and reason for any and all shorecommings

[Reiver]

In biology, immunity is the capability of multicellular organisms to resist harmful microorganisms.
You are not impervious to the virus, you are immune to it.

[Aloha1]

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