Talk of The Villages Florida

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-   The Villages, Florida, Non Villages Discussion (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/villages-florida-non-villages-discussion-93/)
-   -   Did we blow it with the lockdown? (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/villages-florida-non-villages-discussion-93/did-we-blow-lockdown-306160/)

Ben Franklin 05-07-2020 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoodLife (Post 1760481)
I disinfect my groceries after delivery or curbside pickup, you can leave dry goods in garage for a few days. Over 99% of infections are from contact with other people inside buildings. Risk of groceries contamination is very low. Look it up on CDC guidelines.

Didn't answer your question comparing herd immunity to suicide or abortion because it's ridiculous.

My question wasn't ridiculous. What is ludicrous, however, is when people think someone's question is ridiculous, or dumb.

sallybowron 05-07-2020 11:55 AM

But this was also the point of the lockdown or self-isolation: IF people had strictly complied for a matter of only about 2 weeks, the same lack of hosts could/would have occurred. Why do you think that it will be different than the Villages response to the lockdown. On the occasions that I had to go out (doctor, banking etc) we saw many people in groups, no six feet or masks there. Unfortunately many people here believe we are privileged and don't have to follows directives. That attitude will get more people killed than need to be.

golfing eagles 05-07-2020 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoodLife (Post 1760511)
Dr Fauci says second wave of coronavirus is 'inevitable' The nation’s top epidemiologist said Tuesday the United States could be in for “a bad fall and a bad winter,” if it's not prepared for a second wave of the virus.

And LOL. Epidemiologists don't conduct double blinded placebo controlled clinical trials to predict the course of pandemics, especially with a new virus. They study past outbreaks that are have similar person to person spread, R factor etc

Of course Tony has to say that. I take a completely different approach when I'm the guy in charge and will be blamed for anything that goes wrong. And I agree with him, there will most likely be a second wave. The question is whether it will be larger than the first or an insignificant blip on the radar screen.

As far as epidemiologic studies go, are you asking me or telling me???? Because if you're telling, that REALLY would be a LOL :1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:

golfing eagles 05-07-2020 12:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben Franklin (Post 1760555)
My question wasn't ridiculous. What is ludicrous, however, is when people think someone's question is ridiculous, or dumb.

Sorry, I have to side with Goodlife on this one. They used to say there are no dumb questions, but in reality, there are, and the jury is still out on this one:1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:

GoodLife 05-07-2020 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfing eagles (Post 1760563)
Of course Tony has to say that. I take a completely different approach when I'm the guy in charge and will be blamed for anything that goes wrong. And I agree with him, there will most likely be a second wave. The question is whether it will be larger than the first or an insignificant blip on the radar screen.

As far as epidemiologic studies go, are you asking me or telling me???? Because if you're telling, that REALLY would be a LOL :1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:

Tell you what, to further the discussion, can you show us any epidemiologists who say coronavirus will fade away completely soon and die off? The fat lady will sing? It's certainly possible, but I haven't seen any serious studies saying that.

Most I read say it may fade this summer, but will be back in winter unless vaccine or herd immunity.

I'd be glad to hear it. :)

GoodLife 05-07-2020 12:28 PM

It gets worse

Professor Lockdown statement to the Telegraph

Professor Ferguson said: “I acted in the belief that I was immune, having tested positive for coronavirus, and completely isolated myself for almost two weeks after developing symptoms.”

So he had his lover over after testing positive, symptoms etc and no immunity test.

Rules are for the little guys

golfing eagles 05-07-2020 12:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoodLife (Post 1760576)
Tell you what, to further the discussion, can you show us any epidemiologists who say coronavirus will fade away completely soon and die off? The fat lady will sing? It's certainly possible, but I haven't seen any serious studies saying that.

Most I read say it may fade this summer, but will be back in winter unless vaccine or herd immunity.

I'd be glad to hear it. :)

I'd be glad to hear it too. Unfortunately, no one knows.

Tom53 05-07-2020 12:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swoop (Post 1760513)
And you are misusing the numbers. You are using a death rate that is derived by taking the number of people who have tested positive divided by the number of people who were coded as Covid deaths. That is incorrect. You have to use all those infected divided by those who died. If up to 80% are asymptomatic, they would never have been tested. Two independent antibody studies show that more than 50 TIMES more people have the antibodies than have had positive test results.

Actually, the rate is derived by dividing the known deaths by the known positives, anything else is just an assumption. Naturally there are more out there that were never tested, and it's probably the same everywhere. But these total numbers are unknown at this time, and the only way to compare is with known numbers.

golfing eagles 05-07-2020 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom53 (Post 1760596)
Actually, the rate is derived by dividing the known deaths by the known positives, anything else is just an assumption. Naturally there are more out there that were never tested, and it's probably the same everywhere. But these total numbers are unknown at this time, and the only way to compare is with known numbers.

One thing is certain: Dead people don't care which number you use as a denominator

Two Bills 05-07-2020 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoodLife (Post 1760579)
It gets worse

Professor Lockdown statement to the Telegraph

Professor Ferguson said: “I acted in the belief that I was immune, having tested positive for coronavirus, and completely isolated myself for almost two weeks after developing symptoms.”

So he had his lover over after testing positive, symptoms etc and no immunity test.

Rules are for the little guys

I have heard of an antibody test, is this another test?

GoodLife 05-07-2020 01:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Two Bills (Post 1760611)
I have heard of an antibody test, is this another test?

Sorry, should have said antibody test.

Swoop 05-07-2020 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom53 (Post 1760596)
Actually, the rate is derived by dividing the known deaths by the known positives, anything else is just an assumption. Naturally there are more out there that were never tested, and it's probably the same everywhere. But these total numbers are unknown at this time, and the only way to compare is with known numbers.

So you are choosing to ignore the two independent studies that tested for antibodies? Those extrapolated numbers Show a mortality rate of less than 1/2 of 1%. Even the governor of NY is now acknowledging that there were most likely more than 2.7 million cases of the virus in his state alone.

Two Bills 05-07-2020 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoodLife (Post 1760614)
Sorry, should have said antibody test.

Thanks. Thought they had gone a step further!

Tom53 05-07-2020 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swoop (Post 1760615)
So you are choosing to ignore the two independent studies that tested for antibodies? Those extrapolated numbers Show a mortality rate of less than 1/2 of 1%. Even the governor of NY is now acknowledging that there were most likely more than 2.7 million cases of the virus in his state alone.

Personally, I'm tired of all the studies that come out with different results and contradict each other, so I look at numbers not estimates.

Debi-G 05-07-2020 01:30 PM

The affair
 
The affair was pointed out as being hypocritical by telling everyone else to socially distance themselves, yet he stepped outside his home to have an affair with someone he did not live with...


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