[Aloha1]

Originally Posted by Bucco

Problem is in October 2017 the country was told that this tax cut would give each family about $4000 per year and wage growth would occur instantly, and despite what economist said, we were told it was fake news that corporations were the only ones to gain.

An interesting spin that this post puts on it.

And you were told a lie. latest data out shows wages increased 4.2 % in 2018 and are up another 5% in 2019 to date. Recall the media stories of people who claimed the 2017 tax act cost them money because they didn't get as much back when they filed their tax return as they did before. Never occurred to them that they didn't pay as much in tax to begin with. The media is complicit in the dumbing down of America.

[ColdNoMore]

Originally Posted by Aloha1

And you were told a lie. latest data out shows wages increased 4.2 % in 2018 and are up another 5% in 2019 to date. Recall the media stories of people who claimed the 2017 tax act cost them money because they didn't get as much back when they filed their tax return as they did before. Never occurred to them that they didn't pay as much in tax to begin with. .

Source?

Here's mine.

BLS

For production and nonsupervisory employees, average hourly earnings increased 1.9 percent from June 2018 to June 2019. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a 0.6-percent decrease in the average workweek resulted in a 1.3-percent increase in real average weekly earnings over this period.

Originally Posted by Aloha1

The media is complicit in the dumbing down of America.

On that...we actually agree.

Of course, it all depends on what "media"...you choose to watch.

[Aloha1]

Originally Posted by Boomer

So much does not make sense to me. Children ripped from their parents, caged, and nobody seems to notice. Too many seem to feel because those little kids are a different color, they are invisible and do not count.

Boomer, I must respectfully take issue with this comment. You call an acquaintance "far right wing" simply because their choice of media is different than yours. You quote a talking point from what others would call "far left media" as truth. Were you as concerned about this in 2009, 2010, 2012, or even 2015 when thousands were detained and children separated from their parents or is it only because the party in power in Washington has changed? Are you not aware of the child trafficking happened within the groups trying to enter our country illegally? I make these points to show that the choice of media one makes can be detrimental to the actual truth.

[justjim]

Are we going into a recession or we just going into a so called slowdown was the original question and point of this Thread. Frankly I don’t have a clue if it’s one or the other. The so called “experts” are just about equally divided on this question. So.....take your pick. What I’m more concerned about is what economists in the past called a real depression. Even with some of the so called “safety nets” we have today, a depression would be something most of us only heard about from our parents or grandparents. Recently I read that 40% of Americans, if they were ask, could not come up with $400 in cash. Millions of Americans live from pay check to pay check and have no savings to fall back on should there be a sudden recession (loss of jobs) or worse a recession that lasts and becomes a real depression. Let’s hope if there is a slowdown that it doesn’t become a recession and the recession lasts long enough to turn into a depression. We Americans have a debt of not millions, not billions but trillions of dollars. Awful thought as we discuss the possibility of slowdown, recession or worse a depression. The deficit is a topic for another Thread but can be problematic if we enter into a serious downturn or recession.

[Nucky]

SLOWDOWN, Nothing more! Move Along!

[Love2Swim]

Originally Posted by Boomer

CNM, I agree. There is so much of a prevailing attitude of “I got mine. Too bad ya don’t got yours.”

I do not understand why there are those who cannot acknowledge that the system does not work like it once did for regular hardworking people.

Remember the old “3-legged stool” for retirement that so many of us are of an age to remember. As I recall, the 3 legs on the stool were Social Security. Pension. Individual investments and savings.

Some of us knew how to make the 401s and 403s work for us while we were still working. Many had the opportunity to tax defer more money because of not having to pay through the nose for health insurance premiums, deductibles, etc. which, now, even those with good jobs have to absorb more of.

Many of us did quite well when selling our houses, especially after the cap gains law changed in the late 90s where we did not have to reinvest primary residence profits in more expensive homes and could leave a closing table with the next house already paid for and a chunk of tax free change in our pockets. (I know that law is still in effect but I think the early Boomers and Beyond were the ones who reaped the most profits from real estate.)

We had a lot of advantages over what the next generation(s) can expect. (I wrote a dissertation about that yesterday, somewhere around here.)

Anyway, Cold, just wanted to say I, too, don’t get how people do not get it.

I agree with you and CNM...

[GrumpyOldMan]

Originally Posted by jeriteri

The recession talk is directed at the 2020 election.

The economic indicators being discussed have been defined and generally agreed upon for a long time prior to the current administration.

If they apply, they apply regardless of who is in office. As far as I have read, no one is prediction a recession tomorrow, they are saying the economic indicators that have traditionally preceded a recession are lining up.

Also, if you look at history, there is typically a recession about every ten years - so it is about time.

[Love2Swim]

Originally Posted by Boomer

No. No. No. There you go. (sigh)

Yes. I was a secondary ed public school teacher for a long time, 35 years. Had I not been wired like I am to see people as individuals and to care about them and treat them fairly, I would have been terrible at my job. —Well, I wasn't.

You do not know the whole picture of who I am. I never implied that big business was the devil incarnate. My father worked for big business, as did Mr. Boomer. I also invest in stocks. To make an assumption just because I was a teacher is broad brush painting. (sigh, double sigh)

Like I keep saying, some of the answers to our problems are somewhere in the middle with compromise and discussion. But as long as we parrot and spew without thinking through, the future of our nation is at risk.

So much does not make sense to me. Children ripped from their parents, caged, and nobody seems to notice. Too many seem to feel because those little kids are a different color, they are invisible and do not count.

As parents and educators we know how important those first 5 years of life are. Children need nurturing and love for development. What in the hell are we thinking — hell is the operative word there.

How can we love and protect and teach and nurture our own and dehumanize those children. I cannot make that compute. Maybe you know. As a pre-school teacher, you surely well understand the needs of little ones. I am not attacking you. I truly would like to hear the justification for destroying the lives of innocent, defenseless children.

I asked a far right wing person I know, who adores his children and grandchildren, what he thought about those neglected children, imprisoned by hatred and getting more behind and lost every day. He told me that he had heard nothing about it. He listens to and watches only the extreme right wing media which has changed him. I once respected him. He is now full of venom. (I am so glad he lives far away from us now.) And yet, he sits in a pew every Sunday and convinces himself he is a pillar of Christianity. WWJD, huh?

We have become tribal and/or caught in the mindset of an “Us vs. Them” team sport. Ugly stuff.

(Oh well, that was only the beginning of a tangent about all the things going on around me that I just don’t get. Guess I went rather off topic but it is all connected as we choose who to admire and respect. I assume this post will be deleted. Actually, I could say a whole lot more, but why bother.)

I'm so glad your post was not deleted. Many of us feel the same as you do, and it is sad if people don't realize what is going on. What is sadder still, is those who do see what is happening who turn a blind eye and still call themselves a Christian.

[GrumpyOldMan]

Originally Posted by Love2Swim

I'm so glad your post was not deleted. Many of us feel the same as you do, and it is sad if people don't realize what is going on. What is sadder still, is those who do see what is happening who turn a blind eye and still call themselves a Christian.

Sadly this is nothing new. You would think we would learn, but instead history keeps repeating itself - in the 1930's we split apart families, deported millions and many of them American citizens:

Mexican Repatriation - Wikipedia

[Moderator]

It's almost impossible to discuss economic conditions without bringing politics and parties into it. A few of the preceding posts have crossed the line ...if this trend continues, the thread will be closed.

Please focus on economic theories, conditions, and principles and leave politics and elections out of the discussion.

Moderator

[tophcfa]

The question is not will there be an economic slowdown, it is when and how bad will it be? The elephant in the room that no one wants to address is our unsustainable national debt, which has never grown either so large or faster. It is not political since both parties are responsible and no one from either side wants to address it. Pretty soon 100% or countries revenue wii be needed to service the interest on its debt! Just look at Greece or Puerto Rico as examples of what unstanable debt eventually leads to. The bigger the debt gets, the worse things will be when the bubble eventually bursts.

[Kenswing]

Originally Posted by Barefoot

I've thought for a while that the media is talking us into a recession.
And I'm not in the Bubble right now, I'm up north for six months.

There might be something to that.. Today's headline: 34% of economists in survey expect a US recession in 2021

Could have just as easily said 66 percent of economists not worried about a recession..

Recession coming? 34% of economists expect one in 2021: NABE survey

Then after all the doom and gloom they sneak this in as the last paragraph..

Still, for now, most economic signs appear solid. Employers are adding jobs at a steady pace, the unemployment rate remains near a 50-year low and consumers are optimistic. U.S. retail sales figures out last Thursday showed that they jumped in July by the most in four months.

[graciegirl]

Originally Posted by Kenswing

There might be something to that.. Today's headline: 34% of economists in survey expect a US recession in 2021

Could have just as easily said 66 percent of economists not worried about a recession..

Recession coming? 34% of economists expect one in 2021: NABE survey

Then after all the doom and gloom they sneak this in as the last paragraph..

Still, for now, most economic signs appear solid. Employers are adding jobs at a steady pace, the unemployment rate remains near a 50-year low and consumers are optimistic. U.S. retail sales figures out last Thursday showed that they jumped in July by the most in four months.

Opinion itself can sway the stock market. There are too many people in this country right now that would rather see a damaged economic situation than a good economic situation because of their attitude and mind set.

What a mess. What a disappointment.

[ColdNoMore]

Originally Posted by Kenswing

Snip...>Could have just as easily said 66 percent of economists not worried about a recession<..Snip

C'mon, you're smart enough to know...it doesn't work that way.

That's analogous to reading where 40% of people have a favorable view of blankety-blank, then making the huge assumption...that 60% have an 'unfavorable' view of blankety-blank.

When in fact, it might simply be that...30% of that assumed 60% are actually "undecided."

Without reading the choices of answers, at best that type of silly interpretation is deceiving, at worst it is....

And actually, there is a higher number (in one survey earlier), that believe...it may happen even sooner.

Recession Fears

Approximately one-third of economists predict the U.S. will enter a recession in 2020, according to a survey published Monday.

Thirty-eight percent of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics forecasted the world's largest economy will enter a recession next year, a 4 percentage point decline from a similar survey in February.

Thirty-four percent of economists predicted the next recession will begin in 2021, a 9-point uptick since February.

As for me personally, I have the fervent hope that if things do slow down (and history says it will happen)...it is slow and the least amount of Americans are harmed.

It's also my personal experience, that no sane person 'roots' for an economic downturn/disaster...especially after seeing the havoc & damage of the last one.

[DAVES]

Originally Posted by GrumpyOldMan

The last recession resulted in several trillions of dollars of lost wealth. Some recovered, some didn't I would say for those that didn't it was significant.

In my case, I lost my 401k, my credit rating, home and wife. 10 years later I have almost recovered most, but not all.

So, yes in most of YOUR lives it may not have been detectable. But for myself and MANY others lives it was very detectable. Politics had NOTHING to do with it, economics did.

"Several trillions of dollars in lost wealth.: If we dare to see truth we are being had. Nothing that is real can simply disappear. We've heard the term trillions so many times that we've a Goering said, you say something often enough and people believe it is truth. A trillion dollars-what is that? In trying to explain it some describe it a freight trains full of 100 dollar bills. I read the interest on the national debt is now 40 billion dollars. Then it hit me that I do not comprehend what one billion is let alone 40 of them.

As to detectable-I regularly quip I shoulda, coulda mighta or hindsight is always 2020. "Politics had noting to do with it."
We hear the FED wants 2% inflation. Another big lie. They have never in history been able to achieve and hold a given rate of inflation. That 2% is a rate of theft. The 10 year treasury last time I looked was paying 1.7%. If, your purchasing power is falling at 2% and the government is paying you 1.7% and charging you income tax on that 1.7% (free of sate and local not fed tax) our country is simply hoodwinking you while they steal from you.

We being normal demand more and more. Our government uses our own money in the form of adding to the debt to buy our votes.