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  #1  
Old 05-22-2020, 08:09 AM
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Default There's something happening here

What it is ain't exactly clear

This is a graph of Covid 19 deaths per million population of the USA and various countries in Europe. It shows that the pandemic has followed a similar curve in these countries, with deaths rising rapidly, and then slowly going down over a period of 60-80 days.

coronavirus-data-explorer-6-1-jpg

A recent study by an Israeli mathematician proposed that the virus follows a similar curve in most counties, rising up and then going down over a period of 70 days. He doesn't think lockdowns have much effect.

Top Israeli prof claims simple stats show virus plays itself out after 70 days | The Times of Israel

Two recent scientific papers have proposed that their may be some preexisting immunity to covid 19 through previous exposure to other coronaviruses like the common cold.

Using diverse assays for detection of antibodies reactive with the SARS-CoV-2 Spike (S) glycoprotein, we demonstrate the presence of pre-existing immunity in uninfected and unexposed humans to the new coronavirus.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...414v1.full.pdf

https://www.cell.com/action/showPdf?...2820%2930610-3
  #2  
Old 05-22-2020, 10:40 AM
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New York City, with more cases and deaths than anywhere, follows a similar curve.

From NYC Health: Daily deaths from 3/15 to 5/17 (dark blue is confirmed, light blue projected)

11-png

COVID-19: Data Summary - NYC Health

So some say these curves are caused by lockdowns, but some countries like Sweden never really locked down, and others that started opening up a month ago are not showing huge spikes in new cases and deaths.

We know that covid 19 is more infectious than common flu, about twice as much, even the H1N1 flu. But yearly influenza infections dwarf what covid 19 has done in terms of infections. On average, 30 million Americans get the flu each year, and we have partially effective vaccines for the flu. It's possible that there will be a second wave and covid 19 will rack up higher numbers, but nobody knows for sure. SARS, a similar coronavirus, was global and then just faded away, has not returned. They don't know exactly why.

• Number of flu cases U.S. 2010-2017 | Statista

So why is this virus, more infectious than even the most virulent strains of the flu, not infecting and making more people sick? A recent antibody test was done in New York which estimated 21% of New Yorkers had been infected, but never got sick, called their Doctor, and got a test confirming the disease. They were immune in some way.

So what does all this mean? Perhaps a large portion of the population does indeed have some kind of immunity, possibly from previous exposure to other coronaviruses like the common cold, and this immunity is stronger in younger, healthier individuals who rarely die if infected.

Last edited by GoodLife; 05-22-2020 at 10:48 AM.
  #3  
Old 05-22-2020, 10:51 AM
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I suspect the warming trend in the weather could be a factor of some significance that is a common denominator for most locations presented.
We won't know for sure until we have gone a full cycle.

We could also be witnessing the trends established during the pre shut down and post shut down implementation and effect(s).

Again the longer the cycle measured the more will be learned.
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  #4  
Old 05-22-2020, 11:54 AM
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Don't forget that the chart is logarithmic - the distance on the y-axis from 0 to 1 is the same as from 1 to 10
  #5  
Old 05-22-2020, 12:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by billethkid View Post
I suspect the warming trend in the weather could be a factor of some significance that is a common denominator for most locations presented.
We won't know for sure until we have gone a full cycle.

We could also be witnessing the trends established during the pre shut down and post shut down implementation and effect(s).

Again the longer the cycle measured the more will be learned.
I'm not sure about the warming trend thing. I recall a study that said chances of infection start to go down at 77 degrees or so. New York City has only reached that temperature once this year, on May 15. March and April had highs in 50s and 60s yet their daily death and case numbers started falling at the beginning of April. Miami area has the most cases in Florida and they've had highs in the 80s and 90s since March.

Sweden, which did not lockdown, has gone from a high of 98 daily
deaths in mid March to 53 yesterday. I'm not sure that's a lockdown effect.
  #6  
Old 05-22-2020, 12:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Arctic Fox View Post
Don't forget that the chart is logarithmic - the distance on the y-axis from 0 to 1 is the same as from 1 to 10
Yes, but it's the same for all countries plotted and they all show similar curves. Also, the chart of NYC daily deaths is not logarithmic and shows similar fast rise and then gradual decline.

Last edited by GoodLife; 05-22-2020 at 12:46 PM.
  #7  
Old 05-22-2020, 12:36 PM
Robbie0723 Robbie0723 is offline
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Facinating, hope it continues,

With the massive reopening experiment, we will likely find out sooner rather than later...
  #8  
Old 05-22-2020, 12:38 PM
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""""A recent study by an Israeli mathematician proposed that the virus follows a similar curve in most counties, rising up and then going down over a period of 70 days. He doesn't think lockdowns have much effect."""""

The curve may follow the same patern, but the countries that locked down hard and early, have certainly had a lot less cases and deaths than those that waited too long to shut up shop.
  #9  
Old 05-22-2020, 02:39 PM
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Originally Posted by Two Bills View Post
""""A recent study by an Israeli mathematician proposed that the virus follows a similar curve in most counties, rising up and then going down over a period of 70 days. He doesn't think lockdowns have much effect."""""

The curve may follow the same patern, but the countries that locked down hard and early, have certainly had a lot less cases and deaths than those that waited too long to shut up shop.
I agree that lockdowns slow things down. I also think the virus was circulating in places like New York long before they even thought about locking down.

Anyway, the similarity of curves in diverse places suggests something else is at work. The large numbers of asymptomatic cases estimated by various antibody studies seems to indicate the virus is more contagious and less deadly
and that a large percentage of people have some kind of preexisting immunity.
  #10  
Old 05-22-2020, 03:15 PM
OrangeBlossomBaby OrangeBlossomBaby is offline
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You won't know if this is all working as planned, until 2 weeks AFTER the "cases per day" level out at some kind of minimum (compared to how it was a month ago). Because it takes 2 weeks for the virus to incubate into sickness, and the sickness itself can last up to 2 weeks before someone dies from it. People don't just catch it and die the next day. It isn't that neat and tidy or convenient for number-crunchers.

The death rate reduction, in other words, is the culmination of efforts during the shut-down UP TO TWO WEEKS AGO. At that point, the state started re-opening and loosening restrictions. We will see how well that's working in the next two weeks. Not at the present time. If fewer people die in the next two weeks, than they did between 2 weeks ago and 1 month ago, then we'll know we're on to a positive trend.
  #11  
Old 05-22-2020, 04:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OrangeBlossomBaby View Post
You won't know if this is all working as planned, until 2 weeks AFTER the "cases per day" level out at some kind of minimum (compared to how it was a month ago). Because it takes 2 weeks for the virus to incubate into sickness, and the sickness itself can last up to 2 weeks before someone dies from it. People don't just catch it and die the next day. It isn't that neat and tidy or convenient for number-crunchers.

The death rate reduction, in other words, is the culmination of efforts during the shut-down UP TO TWO WEEKS AGO. At that point, the state started re-opening and loosening restrictions. We will see how well that's working in the next two weeks. Not at the present time. If fewer people die in the next two weeks, than they did between 2 weeks ago and 1 month ago, then we'll know we're on to a positive trend.
Yes, everybody knows that deaths lag cases by a few weeks, that's why I selected a graph with daily confirmed deaths. Some of the countries in Europe started opening a month ago, and Sweden never really closed. All show a similar curve going downward.
  #12  
Old 05-22-2020, 07:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OrangeBlossomBaby View Post
You won't know if this is all working as planned, until 2 weeks AFTER the "cases per day" level out at some kind of minimum
We won't know until well after that. Lockdown was only undertaken to flatten the curve so that hospitals could cope. Once lockdown restrictions are eased, cases will rise. That doesn't mean we need to go into lockdown again, as hospitals are generally much better equipped now than they were three months ago.

The big question (only answerable many months from now) will be whether countries such as Sweden (that treated its citizens as adults and didn't impose a harsh lockdown) will have a lower overall death rate and a quicker reduction to virtually no new infections than nanny states that over-reacted and are still reluctant to face the fact that hiding away is merely going to delay any recovery.
  #13  
Old 05-22-2020, 07:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GoodLife View Post
What it is ain't exactly clear

This is a graph of Covid 19 deaths per million population of the USA and various countries in Europe. It shows that the pandemic has followed a similar curve in these countries, with deaths rising rapidly, and then slowly going down over a period of 60-80 days.

Attachment 84221

A recent study by an Israeli mathematician proposed that the virus follows a similar curve in most counties, rising up and then going down over a period of 70 days. He doesn't think lockdowns have much effect.

Top Israeli prof claims simple stats show virus plays itself out after 70 days | The Times of Israel

Two recent scientific papers have proposed that their may be some preexisting immunity to covid 19 through previous exposure to other coronaviruses like the common cold.


Using diverse assays for detection of antibodies reactive with the SARS-CoV-2 Spike (S) glycoprotein, we demonstrate the presence of pre-existing immunity in uninfected and unexposed humans to the new coronavirus.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...414v1.full.pdf

https://www.cell.com/action/showPdf?...2820%2930610-3
I think common sense makes the statistics look worthless. In our home state, the spread is worse in factories, medical personnel and the elderly who have been contaminated by visitors and caretakers and fellow residents. It all speaks volumes to person to person spread. Isolation worked.
  #14  
Old 05-23-2020, 06:14 AM
DanBrew DanBrew is offline
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Was it "Take away my liberty and protect me from myself so that I won't have a very remote possibility of dying?" Wait, not sure that is what was said.
  #15  
Old 05-23-2020, 06:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by billethkid View Post
I suspect the warming trend in the weather could be a factor of some significance that is a common denominator for most locations presented.
We won't know for sure until we have gone a full cycle.

We could also be witnessing the trends established during the pre shut down and post shut down implementation and effect(s).

Again the longer the cycle measured the more will be learned.
Except the countries in the Southern Hemisphere are getting cooler, not warmer, this time of year.
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