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  #31  
Old 05-23-2020, 09:30 AM
fdpaq0580 fdpaq0580 is offline
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Default Falling on deaf ears?

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Originally Posted by Two Bills View Post
But their immediate neighbors did lock down, and had a lot less cases and deaths.
Germany, Austria, New Zealand, Australia etc. locked down early, and compared to many, had far lower instances of the virus, and minimal deaths per head of population.
Here in UK our 'experts' dithered over lockdown or herd immunity, and look what that did for us, and our hospitals were not overwhelmed either.
The curve may be nearly the same, but the numbers show that early lockdown reduced cases substancially.
Your response (first sentence) to the "Sweden never locked down" comment was correct. Unfortunately, those that keep making that statement don't want to acknowledge your sensible reply because it debunks their belief that the "lockdown" was useless or some political conspiracy. Just MHO.
  #32  
Old 05-23-2020, 11:05 AM
Don Ferguson Don Ferguson is offline
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I doubt anyone even still reading this thread, but gotta say it anyway. IT WAS THE ANNUAL FLU. It killed a lot of people and is a true tragedy for those families and friends. Let me make that point with a few examples: (1) Just two years ago the US lost 81,000 plus to the annual flu. (2) If not for the gross inflation of this year's deaths we would be under that! (2) Look up the on line CDC instructions for death certificates. They clearly state if it is even possible that the victim had corona virus, count it. No test or autopsy required! (3) Hospitals are struggling and will be paid $19,000 per Covid-19 classification admission. They are capped at $6,000 for other admissions....which code would you use? (4) Look at US numbers versus world-wide. Do you really believe we have 30% of all world wide deaths?
  #33  
Old 05-23-2020, 11:24 AM
Win1894 Win1894 is offline
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Originally Posted by fdpaq0580 View Post
Your response (first sentence) to the "Sweden never locked down" comment was correct. Unfortunately, those that keep making that statement don't want to acknowledge your sensible reply because it debunks their belief that the "lockdown" was useless or some political conspiracy. Just MHO.
Relative to total population the infection rate in Sweden (0.3%) was lower than in the US (0.5%). Also, relative to total population the death rate in Sweden (0.04%) was 33% higher than the US (0.03%). Interestingly, the death rate relative to those infected in Sweden (12.1%) was twice as high as in the US (5.9%).
  #34  
Old 05-23-2020, 11:46 AM
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Originally Posted by Win1894 View Post
Relative to total population the infection rate in Sweden (0.3%) was lower than in the US (0.5%). Also, relative to total population the death rate in Sweden (0.04%) was 33% higher than the US (0.03%). Interestingly, the death rate relative to those infected in Sweden (12.1%) was twice as high as in the US (5.9%).
I'm not going to even check your numbers because I doubt you figured asymptomatic cases into the equation. Sweden's chief epidemiologist said they were getting close to herd immunity last month, So their death rate is much lower, infection rate higher, and their daily death rate is going down. Without complete lockdown and wrecking their economy.
  #35  
Old 05-23-2020, 11:52 AM
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Default graph

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Originally Posted by GoodLife View Post
What it is ain't exactly clear

This is a graph of Covid 19 deaths per million population of the USA and various countries in Europe. It shows that the pandemic has followed a similar curve in these countries, with deaths rising rapidly, and then slowly going down over a period of 60-80 days.

Attachment 84221

A recent study by an Israeli mathematician proposed that the virus follows a similar curve in most counties, rising up and then going down over a period of 70 days. He doesn't think lockdowns have much effect.

Top Israeli prof claims simple stats show virus plays itself out after 70 days | The Times of Israel

Two recent scientific papers have proposed that their may be some preexisting immunity to covid 19 through previous exposure to other coronaviruses like the common cold.

Using diverse assays for detection of antibodies reactive with the SARS-CoV-2 Spike (S) glycoprotein, we demonstrate the presence of pre-existing immunity in uninfected and unexposed humans to the new coronavirus.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...414v1.full.pdf

https://www.cell.com/action/showPdf?...2820%2930610-3
This is a very strange graph. Two graph lines are not labeled. The legend does not correspond to the graph. What is Oceania on the graph? I'm not sure I would trust this graph.
  #36  
Old 05-23-2020, 12:17 PM
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The common cold is not a coronavirus.
  #37  
Old 05-23-2020, 12:20 PM
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This is a very strange graph. Two graph lines are not labeled. The legend does not correspond to the graph. What is Oceania on the graph? I'm not sure I would trust this graph.
Graph is from worldindata.com. They get their numbers from CDC equivalents in various countries. You can pick various countries to graph, including ones located in Oceania. Oceania is in a continental group consisting of numerous countries and includes Pacific islands and Australia.
  #38  
Old 05-23-2020, 12:22 PM
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The common cold is not a coronavirus.
Better let the CDC know

Common human coronaviruses, including types 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1, usually cause mild to moderate upper-respiratory tract illnesses, like the common cold

Common Human Coronaviruses | CDC
  #39  
Old 05-23-2020, 12:24 PM
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I'm not going to even check your numbers because I doubt you figured asymptomatic cases into the equation. Sweden's chief epidemiologist said they were getting close to herd immunity last month, So their death rate is much lower, infection rate higher, and their daily death rate is going down. Without complete lockdown and wrecking their economy.
I merely used the numbers that are reported and did the math making no effort to take into account any other factors. Yes, I fully realize there are myriad factors that will enter the picture that haven't yet been considered such as severity of the lockdown, face covering, reporting of asymptomatic cases, etc. In time the important contributing factors will need to be taken into account for a more accurate analysis and assessment regarding the effectiveness of each nation's response - what worked and what didn't work.
  #40  
Old 05-23-2020, 01:18 PM
The Mountaineer The Mountaineer is offline
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Default This face cannot be doubted

You cannot get the coronavirus if you stay in your home unless someone visit you. So, hibernation DOES work. Yes, there are people who may never get it no matter what they do. Are you willing to put your life on the line to prove that you're not afraid of COVID-19? Common sense will separate the herd. Title should be This FACT and not this face.

Last edited by The Mountaineer; 05-23-2020 at 01:19 PM. Reason: typo
  #41  
Old 05-23-2020, 01:49 PM
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You cannot get the coronavirus if you stay in your home unless someone visit you. So, hibernation DOES work. Yes, there are people who may never get it no matter what they do. Are you willing to put your life on the line to prove that you're not afraid of COVID-19? Common sense will separate the herd. Title should be This FACT and not this face.
Is there something about this statement I made in post # 30 that you do not understand?

This doesn't prevent me from considering that the whole worldwide lockdown was an error since 80% or more of deaths are from nursing homes and old people with pre existing health problems. A policy of just isolating seniors and strict rules, PPE for all nursing home staff etc would have saved more lives and allowed younger people to keep working with some precautions and not crash the economy.

I wish people would read entire threads before commenting so they won't waste their time arguing against straw men that don't exist.

Last edited by GoodLife; 05-23-2020 at 01:54 PM.
  #42  
Old 05-23-2020, 03:01 PM
Silver Streak Silver Streak is offline
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Originally Posted by GoodLife View Post
Is there something about this statement I made in post # 30 that you do not understand?

This doesn't prevent me from considering that the whole worldwide lockdown was an error since 80% or more of deaths are from nursing homes and old people with pre existing health problems. A policy of just isolating seniors and strict rules, PPE for all nursing home staff etc would have saved more lives and allowed younger people to keep working with some precautions and not crash the economy.

I wish people would read entire threads before commenting so they won't waste their time arguing against straw men that don't exist.
Hindsight is always 20/20. We still don't know nearly enough about this virus but we know a whole lot more than we did when the various types of lockdowns began. The longer people, especially vulnerable people, self-isolate, the better the chance that when/if they eventually DO get infected, enough will be known to allow for much more effective treatment. Seems worth the wait and inconvenience to me.
  #43  
Old 05-23-2020, 03:14 PM
fdpaq0580 fdpaq0580 is offline
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Default Again?

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Originally Posted by Win1894 View Post
Relative to total population the infection rate in Sweden (0.3%) was lower than in the US (0.5%). Also, relative to total population the death rate in Sweden (0.04%) was 33% higher than the US (0.03%). Interestingly, the death rate relative to those infected in Sweden (12.1%) was twice as high as in the US (5.9%).
The person I responded to had measured Sweden (no lockdown) against their immediate neighbors that did lockdown and fared much better. Compare like to like. Comparing Sweden to the USA is ,IMHO, like comparing NYC to some tiny town in the mid-west.
  #44  
Old 05-23-2020, 05:45 PM
Win1894 Win1894 is offline
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Originally Posted by fdpaq0580 View Post
The person I responded to had measured Sweden (no lockdown) against their immediate neighbors that did lockdown and fared much better. Compare like to like. Comparing Sweden to the USA is ,IMHO, like comparing NYC to some tiny town in the mid-west.
I was appropriately responding to someone else's comment. Secondly, your comparison is absurd, but you have every right to make it. Thirdly, here are the numbers you suggest regarding the effect of no lockdown in Sweden.
Death rate per 1 million in population:
Sweden - 3213
Denmark - 1939
Norway - 1554
Finland - 1188
  #45  
Old 05-23-2020, 06:30 PM
Mumbles Mumbles is offline
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Default Well . . . . .

Quote:
Originally Posted by GoodLife View Post
What it is ain't exactly clear

This is a graph of Covid 19 deaths per million population of the USA and various countries in Europe. It shows that the pandemic has followed a similar curve in these countries, with deaths rising rapidly, and then slowly going down over a period of 60-80 days.

Attachment 84221

A recent study by an Israeli mathematician proposed that the virus follows a similar curve in most counties, rising up and then going down over a period of 70 days. He doesn't think lockdowns have much effect.

Top Israeli prof claims simple stats show virus plays itself out after 70 days | The Times of Israel

Two recent scientific papers have proposed that their may be some preexisting immunity to covid 19 through previous exposure to other coronaviruses like the common cold.

Using diverse assays for detection of antibodies reactive with the SARS-CoV-2 Spike (S) glycoprotein, we demonstrate the presence of pre-existing immunity in uninfected and unexposed humans to the new coronavirus.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...414v1.full.pdf

https://www.cell.com/action/showPdf?...2820%2930610-3
All good and well for 70 days. HOWEVER! There are many more days to come.
"It ain't over till the portly lady warbles.
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