Talk of The Villages Florida - Rentals, Entertainment & More
Talk of The Villages Florida - Rentals, Entertainment & More
#46
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Ummm
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#47
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For instance, the five worst hit in terms of deaths per million European countries are Spain, Italy, France, UK, and Belgium are also some of the most visited countries in the world, except for Belgium, not sure why they got hit so hard. So they got seeded with lots of virus carrying travelers. Sweden gets 50% more visitors than Norway and 200% more visitors than Finland, so it's obvious they got more travelers with virus than those countries that so many people like to use to "debunk" Sweden's strategy. And comparing Sweden to countries halfway around the world like South Korea and New Zealand is insane, the virus mutated as it traveled and the most contagious strain developed in Europe, which then seeded New York City and then the rest of the USA. So if you want to compare "similar countries" in Europe to Sweden, you might pick Belgium and Ireland, which have similar travel levels to Sweden. Belgium has a little more, Ireland a little less. Belgium 794 deaths per million Sweden 388 deaths per million Ireland 322 deaths per million Also, if we do have a second wave, Sweden will have reached herd immunity while other countries in Europe that locked down will see their deaths go up. The only thing that stops a virus is herd immunity or a effective vaccine. |
#48
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Originally Posted by GoodLife
"Yes, but Sweden did not lockdown, did not overwhelm their hospitals, does not have vaccine and yet they show a similar rise and fall in deaths," Quote:
Population / Number of Covid deaths / Deaths per capita Norway - 5.32M / 235 / .000044 Sweden - 9.96M / 3871/ .00039 Finland - 5.52M / 306/ .000055 Denmark - 5.62M / 561/ .00001
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#49
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#50
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#51
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... Last edited by LiverpoolWalrus; 05-24-2020 at 08:27 AM. |
#52
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Thanks GoodLife. I'm sure your analysis has merit regarding travel. I saw it after I posted my Scandinavian death rates.
I remember from doing regressions in statistics class that you can never explain cause by one variable only (social distancing in this case). After I did my calculations, I wondered what other variables might be at play. Travel is certainly one of them. There are probably others, e.g., older population, a population with more co-morbidity, mass transport, population density, etc.
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#53
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#54
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I stand chastained and rebuked.
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My original post was in regard to the comparing Sweden against US covid numbers as a justification for "no lockdown". I was in support of the person comparing Sweden with its neighbors as being more appropriate and meaningful than than a comparison between Sweden and the US. The numbers shown above in your quote, I believe, show that the "lockdown" was successful in reducing the number of potential fatalities significantly. I stand by my opinion of comparing "like with like" in order to get a more realistic picture of current covid conditions. And, I sincerely thank you for pointing out to me that I don't always make myself clear. Hopefully I'll do better next time. |
#55
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Food for thought?
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I accept the comparing of Belgium, Sweden, Ireland as reasonable based on the points you made. In the middle of your post, remarking on high travelled European countries, you inserted the statement "don't know why they got hit so hard" in regard to Belgium. I don't think anyone does, yet. In the comparing the death rates, you said," Belgium a little more". Using the numbers you provided it was more than double. Personally I consider that substantial. More research required to find the reason. And Ireland a little less. Again, more research required to discover contributing and mitigating factors. Since we are all still in the learning phase, please forgive my poor communication skills. I, like most, are trying to learn while we do the best we can to protect ourselves and loved ones. |
#56
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#57
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I hate to put a damper on all those that know so much about curves and stat. But we are in an area that has older people who should just think about their health first and talk to their doctor. You only can die once.
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