Talk of The Villages Florida - He scares me too

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Posted by Guest (Post 219439)

Absolutely. We are where we are today because of the actions of this administration to stabalize the banking system in March. And they did so by rejecting both the far right's call to let the banks fail and the far left's call to nationalize the banks and have the government take them over entirely. The course taken already has led to the banks returning to profitablity and the beginning of repayment of the bailout money.

But hey, I don't care who gets the credit; I am just happy to have my portfolio back to within 10% of where it was last fall. In fact, I plan to take some money off the table at this point and wait for the inevitable correction because the market is seriously overbought at this point. The S&P 500 may end up at between 1050-1100 by year-end as Abbey Joseph Cohen predicts, but I'm more than satisfied with the run-up from 667 to 1010 since March. If I miss some small gains by mis-timing the market, so be it.

The upcoming recovery could be V shaped or W shaped. The problem of course being that the upward recovery leg of a V and the initial accent in a W recovery look identical. In order for this to be a V recovery, we now need the private sector to ramp up production rather than concentrating on reducing top line costs and expenditures.

But unlike the poster to whom I initially responded, I am more worried about the Republicans than the Democrats. If the right succeeds in turning off the money spigot too quickly, it could put the breaks on this recovery and send us into a deeper double-dip recession. Although the D word is no longer being uttered, we could still suffer a lost decade as Japan did in the 90s if the economy is handled incorrectly. There is a lot of talk about hyper-inflation on this board, but the real problem is avoiding deflation. Once that is accomplished, then we can address long-term inflation concerns.

V's,W's, all very interesting, but the government did nothing but transfer wealth (tax money) from the taxpayer to the banks. The banks stabilized the banks books with this tax money and still haven't loosened credit to the taxpayers that they got the money from. So, the taxpayers got screwed both ways.