Consistency
 

The only place I have been where the weather predictions were accurate was in Dubai, "Hot and sunny"

I am not siding with local weather people but I am sure it is very difficult when you live on a peninsula as we do here. I am sure they don’t forecast rain in order to discourage you from going to the square 😂

Weather forecasting involves some hard data, probability of wind speeds and directions at different elevations, knowledge of local patterns, computer model reliability for an area, etc. At times it may be more an art than a science. Best professional judgement erring on the side of safety.
Take a few classes or look at their training before you throw people away. The climate crisis is real and their job is getting more complicated.

Many moons ago when working in Ireland, our weather forecast went something like, "if you can't see the mountains, it's raining, if you can, it's going to rain!" :shrug:

Hahaha, it’s Florida!!! It can downpour at Lake Sumter Landing and not rain at all at Brownwood. The percentage is the coverage area, not a percentage of rain. If there’s a 70% chance that means it WILL rain in 70% of that area. Not there’s a 70% chance it will rain.

One thing you can count on for almost 100% accuracy here in TV.

If you follow Talk of The Villages there are more experts on every subject than anyplace on the planet earth.

If you listen carefully, particularly on the Television, it’s not 70% chance of rain. They say 70% coverage of rain in the area. Still not accurate though!

In general - the greater the time-frame, the greater the probability. At 6 AM the probability of sunshine is high, while at 6 PM the probability of sunshine is low.

There's always a 50% chance of rain. It's either going to rain or it isn't.

The Weather Channel app on my smart phone and tablet refers to it as the "chance of rain".

Note, that I understand that weather forecasts are often not accurate. But my observation is that earlier forecasts very often include a much higher chance of rain than the more recent forecasts. So, a 70 percent chance of rain for a specific hour, will usually decrease to 30 percent or lower as the day goes on. It seems to me that, if these forecasts were based on objective scientific data, the chance of rain would sometimes increase and sometimes decrease over time, based on the updated data.

Would have thought as computer models got better than forecasts would also.
Obviously not.

I always thought say a 75% chance of rain meant just that, a high probability. I read on one of the weather apps and also heard on one of the news channels what it really means is 75% of the viewing area will see rain. That’s why so many times I see 75%. Nance but areas such as Ocala, Bellevue, and Fruitland Park always seem to get so much rain but we in The Villages get left high and dry. Several weeks ago we had a 10% chance of rain but lo and behold got about a half inch. No where else within 150 miles got nothing. Made their comments correct. About 15% of the area got rain.

Just to clarify, the Villages of Pine Ridge and Pine Hills are located within Fruitland Park.

WeatherBug has stations scattered throughout the area. The closest one to me is at the southeast corner of the Historic Section, on Tarrson. The second closest is across the golf cart bridge on Chula Vista.

One thing I can accurately predict: IF it is going to rain in The Villages, it will always happen over the parking lot at Walmart on 441 harder than it happens on the golf cart path to/from Walmart, AND the lightning will always be more ominous between Walmart and the Boone Gate, than it is on Paradise or Griffin.

Villagers sport-betting on the weather. Car not bad. Golf cart? Bike or walking good to be drip dry.

It is not just The Villages it is people. Thanks to the internet, it is easy and wise to find several OPINIONS.

10 people will offer 11 opinions and 6 1/2 will be wrong according to my crystal ball

Accu Weather will tell you the rain will stop in 7 minutes but it didn't rain.

Well 7 minutes after they say it will start there will be no rain so they are right about that. Sort of.

I have five different weather apps on my phone, and they usually have five different forecasts. I haven't found any of them to be accurate. I look at all of them before heading out for a ride on my bike and have been caught in the rain several times despite none of them predicting rain.

They are all wrong because the weather (and climate) models are all wrong ... well at least they get the bigger picture a little better, but the small scale stuff is still way beyond today's model capabilities. The reason is the computer grid spacing is still too large to model individual cloud and storm elements, plus the time-steps within the models are still too large to track individual storms. This is all explained in The Weather Club (The Villages Weather Club) which has a complete presentation about this subject. In the meantime, I only use real-time weather radar know what's happening -- before I go out for walks or whatever ... here's the link ... Current Weather Conditions: Florida Radar Loop | South Florida Water Management District

You can't predict the weather in Central Florida unless a hurricane or a polar bomb is headed here.

"Weather forecast for tonight: dark. Continued dark overnight, with widely scattered light by morning." - George Carlin

Just give me an app with a good radar.

Same answer but 29% to 60% chance it won’t rain. One way there’s more of a chance it will rain & the other way there’s more of a chance it will rain. We could be like the govt. we could collect money like our govt. wants & pay Mother Nature to make it rain or not, just like they want to do now collect money to pay Mother Nature to have it get very cold so it doesn’t melt the ice on both poles! This is a bunch of BS!

Be like the professionals - get a crystal ball ... Amazon.com

Those stations only report not forecast.

Or just look out window for clouds if they are coming chance of rain. It they are going not so much.

Real Time Lightning Map :: LightningMaps.org

Polar bomb = old world cold front.

What a great job! Only job where you can be wrong most of the time and not be fired.

Weather forecasting can be challenging in any location, but Florida's unique geography and climate make it particularly difficult to predict the weather with accuracy. Here are some reasons why:

1. Complex weather patterns: Florida's location near the tropics and its proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean create a complex interplay of weather patterns. This can lead to sudden changes in temperature, humidity, and precipitation, making it difficult to accurately forecast the weather.
2. Hurricane season: Florida is located in the heart of hurricane country, and the state experiences an average of 5-6 hurricanes or tropical storms each year. These powerful storms can cause significant damage and disrupt weather patterns for days or even weeks, making it difficult to predict the weather during hurricane season (June to November).
3. Warm ocean waters: The Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean surrounding Florida are warm throughout the year, which can lead to rapid changes in temperature and humidity. This warm water also fuels intense tropical storms and hurricanes, further complicating weather forecasting.
4. Coastal geography: Florida's long coastline and numerous bays, inlets, and estuaries create a variety of microclimates that can affect the weather. For example, the Florida Keys have a different climate than the mainland, and the Gulf Coast has a different climate than the Atlantic Coast.
5. Diverse topography: Florida's landscape is diverse, with flat coastal areas, rolling hills, and elevated terrain in the central and northern parts of the state. This variation in topography can cause differences in temperature and humidity, making it harder to predict the weather.
6. Weak jet stream: The jet stream, a high-altitude wind current that plays a significant role in shaping weather patterns across North America, is typically weak or non-existent over Florida. This means that weather systems can stall or become stationary over the state, leading to prolonged periods of hot and humid weather or persistent rain and thunderstorms.
7. Urban heat island effect: The rapid development and urbanization of Florida's cities, particularly in southern Florida, can create heat islands that amplify temperatures and alter local microclimates. This can make it difficult to accurately predict the weather in these areas.
8. Limited observational data: While Florida has a network of weather observation stations and radar systems, there are still limited observations in certain areas, particularly in rural parts of the state. This can make it harder for meteorologists to gather accurate data and make informed predictions about the weather.

You’re exactly right!

Forecaster wants to golf.

I did just that - bought a crystal ball - and here's it's first message ...

Predicting the weather is like trying to predict what you wife is thinking. No use even trying it, because you are rarely right.

That is not true as I can be somewhat right about 27% of the time. Oops 25%.