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Consistency
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I am not siding with local weather people but I am sure it is very difficult when you live on a peninsula as we do here. I am sure they don’t forecast rain in order to discourage you from going to the square 😂
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Weather forecasting involves some hard data, probability of wind speeds and directions at different elevations, knowledge of local patterns, computer model reliability for an area, etc. At times it may be more an art than a science. Best professional judgement erring on the side of safety.
Take a few classes or look at their training before you throw people away. The climate crisis is real and their job is getting more complicated. |
Many moons ago when working in Ireland, our weather forecast went something like, "if you can't see the mountains, it's raining, if you can, it's going to rain!" :shrug:
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One thing you can count on for almost 100% accuracy here in TV.
If you follow Talk of The Villages there are more experts on every subject than anyplace on the planet earth. |
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There's always a 50% chance of rain. It's either going to rain or it isn't.
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Note, that I understand that weather forecasts are often not accurate. But my observation is that earlier forecasts very often include a much higher chance of rain than the more recent forecasts. So, a 70 percent chance of rain for a specific hour, will usually decrease to 30 percent or lower as the day goes on. It seems to me that, if these forecasts were based on objective scientific data, the chance of rain would sometimes increase and sometimes decrease over time, based on the updated data. |
Would have thought as computer models got better than forecasts would also.
Obviously not. |
I always thought say a 75% chance of rain meant just that, a high probability. I read on one of the weather apps and also heard on one of the news channels what it really means is 75% of the viewing area will see rain. That’s why so many times I see 75%. Nance but areas such as Ocala, Bellevue, and Fruitland Park always seem to get so much rain but we in The Villages get left high and dry. Several weeks ago we had a 10% chance of rain but lo and behold got about a half inch. No where else within 150 miles got nothing. Made their comments correct. About 15% of the area got rain.
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One thing I can accurately predict: IF it is going to rain in The Villages, it will always happen over the parking lot at Walmart on 441 harder than it happens on the golf cart path to/from Walmart, AND the lightning will always be more ominous between Walmart and the Boone Gate, than it is on Paradise or Griffin.
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You can't predict the weather in Central Florida unless a hurricane or a polar bomb is headed here.
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"Weather forecast for tonight: dark. Continued dark overnight, with widely scattered light by morning." - George Carlin
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Just give me an app with a good radar.
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Same answer but 29% to 60% chance it won’t rain. One way there’s more of a chance it will rain & the other way there’s more of a chance it will rain. We could be like the govt. we could collect money like our govt. wants & pay Mother Nature to make it rain or not, just like they want to do now collect money to pay Mother Nature to have it get very cold so it doesn’t melt the ice on both poles! This is a bunch of BS!
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Those stations only report not forecast. |
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Or just look out window for clouds if they are coming chance of rain. It they are going not so much. |
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Real Time Lightning Map :: LightningMaps.org |
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Polar bomb = old world cold front. |
What a great job! Only job where you can be wrong most of the time and not be fired.
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Weather forecasting can be challenging in any location, but Florida's unique geography and climate make it particularly difficult to predict the weather with accuracy. Here are some reasons why:
1. Complex weather patterns: Florida's location near the tropics and its proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean create a complex interplay of weather patterns. This can lead to sudden changes in temperature, humidity, and precipitation, making it difficult to accurately forecast the weather. 2. Hurricane season: Florida is located in the heart of hurricane country, and the state experiences an average of 5-6 hurricanes or tropical storms each year. These powerful storms can cause significant damage and disrupt weather patterns for days or even weeks, making it difficult to predict the weather during hurricane season (June to November). 3. Warm ocean waters: The Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean surrounding Florida are warm throughout the year, which can lead to rapid changes in temperature and humidity. This warm water also fuels intense tropical storms and hurricanes, further complicating weather forecasting. 4. Coastal geography: Florida's long coastline and numerous bays, inlets, and estuaries create a variety of microclimates that can affect the weather. For example, the Florida Keys have a different climate than the mainland, and the Gulf Coast has a different climate than the Atlantic Coast. 5. Diverse topography: Florida's landscape is diverse, with flat coastal areas, rolling hills, and elevated terrain in the central and northern parts of the state. This variation in topography can cause differences in temperature and humidity, making it harder to predict the weather. 6. Weak jet stream: The jet stream, a high-altitude wind current that plays a significant role in shaping weather patterns across North America, is typically weak or non-existent over Florida. This means that weather systems can stall or become stationary over the state, leading to prolonged periods of hot and humid weather or persistent rain and thunderstorms. 7. Urban heat island effect: The rapid development and urbanization of Florida's cities, particularly in southern Florida, can create heat islands that amplify temperatures and alter local microclimates. This can make it difficult to accurately predict the weather in these areas. 8. Limited observational data: While Florida has a network of weather observation stations and radar systems, there are still limited observations in certain areas, particularly in rural parts of the state. This can make it harder for meteorologists to gather accurate data and make informed predictions about the weather. |
You’re exactly right!
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Predicting the weather is like trying to predict what you wife is thinking. No use even trying it, because you are rarely right.
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