Talk of The Villages Florida
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Talk of The Villages Florida (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/)
-   Weather Talk (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/weather-talk-515/)
-   -   Bogus Weather Forecasts (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/weather-talk-515/bogus-weather-forecasts-344407/)

Wilson02852 09-28-2023 10:09 AM
One thing you can count on for almost 100% accuracy here in TV.

If you follow Talk of The Villages there are more experts on every subject than anyplace on the planet earth.

Anthonycoleen 09-28-2023 10:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by retiredguy123 (Post 2260749)
Every morning, I check the Weather Channel app to see if it is going to rain. Today, it said that there was a 71 percent chance for rain at 5 pm. But, now, at 3 pm, the chance for rain at 5 pm is only 40 percent. I understand that a forecast can change, but this pattern occurs almost every day. The chance for rain at 5 pm is very high in the early morning, but then it decreases as the time gets closer to 5 pm. It almost never increases. It happens so often that I believe that the forecasters are intentionally publishing a higher chance for rain in the morning than the data actually suggests. Has anyone else noticed this trend and is there a logical explanation?
If you listen carefully, particularly on the Television, it’s not 70% chance of rain. They say 70% coverage of rain in the area. Still not accurate though!

sounding 09-28-2023 10:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by retiredguy123 (Post 2260749)
Every morning, I check the Weather Channel app to see if it is going to rain. Today, it said that there was a 71 percent chance for rain at 5 pm. But, now, at 3 pm, the chance for rain at 5 pm is only 40 percent. I understand that a forecast can change, but this pattern occurs almost every day. The chance for rain at 5 pm is very high in the early morning, but then it decreases as the time gets closer to 5 pm. It almost never increases. It happens so often that I believe that the forecasters are intentionally publishing a higher chance for rain in the morning than the data actually suggests. Has anyone else noticed this trend and is there a logical explanation?
In general - the greater the time-frame, the greater the probability. At 6 AM the probability of sunshine is high, while at 6 PM the probability of sunshine is low.

TomSpasm 09-28-2023 10:29 AM
There's always a 50% chance of rain. It's either going to rain or it isn't.

retiredguy123 09-28-2023 10:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Anthonycoleen (Post 2260918)
If you listen carefully, particularly on the Television, it’s not 70% chance of rain. They say 70% coverage of rain in the area. Still not accurate though!
The Weather Channel app on my smart phone and tablet refers to it as the "chance of rain".

Note, that I understand that weather forecasts are often not accurate. But my observation is that earlier forecasts very often include a much higher chance of rain than the more recent forecasts. So, a 70 percent chance of rain for a specific hour, will usually decrease to 30 percent or lower as the day goes on. It seems to me that, if these forecasts were based on objective scientific data, the chance of rain would sometimes increase and sometimes decrease over time, based on the updated data.

Stu from NYC 09-28-2023 11:27 AM
Would have thought as computer models got better than forecasts would also.
Obviously not.

Camranhvet 09-28-2023 12:27 PM
I always thought say a 75% chance of rain meant just that, a high probability. I read on one of the weather apps and also heard on one of the news channels what it really means is 75% of the viewing area will see rain. That’s why so many times I see 75%. Nance but areas such as Ocala, Bellevue, and Fruitland Park always seem to get so much rain but we in The Villages get left high and dry. Several weeks ago we had a 10% chance of rain but lo and behold got about a half inch. No where else within 150 miles got nothing. Made their comments correct. About 15% of the area got rain.

retiredguy123 09-28-2023 12:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Camranhvet (Post 2260959)
I always thought say a 75% chance of rain meant just that, a high probability. I read on one of the weather apps and also heard on one of the news channels what it really means is 75% of the viewing area will see rain. That’s why so many times I see 75%. Nance but areas such as Ocala, Bellevue, and Fruitland Park always seem to get so much rain but we in The Villages get left high and dry. Several weeks ago we had a 10% chance of rain but lo and behold got about a half inch. No where else within 150 miles got nothing. Made their comments correct. About 15% of the area got rain.
Just to clarify, the Villages of Pine Ridge and Pine Hills are located within Fruitland Park.

OrangeBlossomBaby 09-28-2023 01:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Topspinmo (Post 2260803)
Forecast really are for Orlando and space coast. We don’t matter way up here.:icon_bored:
WeatherBug has stations scattered throughout the area. The closest one to me is at the southeast corner of the Historic Section, on Tarrson. The second closest is across the golf cart bridge on Chula Vista.

OrangeBlossomBaby 09-28-2023 02:01 PM
One thing I can accurately predict: IF it is going to rain in The Villages, it will always happen over the parking lot at Walmart on 441 harder than it happens on the golf cart path to/from Walmart, AND the lightning will always be more ominous between Walmart and the Boone Gate, than it is on Paradise or Griffin.

DAVES 09-28-2023 02:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by retiredguy123 (Post 2260749)
Every morning, I check the Weather Channel app to see if it is going to rain. Today, it said that there was a 71 percent chance for rain at 5 pm. But, now, at 3 pm, the chance for rain at 5 pm is only 40 percent. I understand that a forecast can change, but this pattern occurs almost every day. The chance for rain at 5 pm is very high in the early morning, but then it decreases as the time gets closer to 5 pm. It almost never increases. It happens so often that I believe that the forecasters are intentionally publishing a higher chance for rain in the morning than the data actually suggests. Has anyone else noticed this trend and is there a logical explanation?
Villagers sport-betting on the weather. Car not bad. Golf cart? Bike or walking good to be drip dry.

DAVES 09-28-2023 02:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wilson02852 (Post 2260913)
One thing you can count on for almost 100% accuracy here in TV.

If you follow Talk of The Villages there are more experts on every subject than anyplace on the planet earth.
It is not just The Villages it is people. Thanks to the internet, it is easy and wise to find several OPINIONS.

Stu from NYC 09-28-2023 03:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DAVES (Post 2260998)
It is not just The Villages it is people. Thanks to the internet, it is easy and wise to find several OPINIONS.
10 people will offer 11 opinions and 6 1/2 will be wrong according to my crystal ball

Shimpy 09-28-2023 04:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pugchief (Post 2260792)
Soooo, is there another app that has more reliable forecasts? From what I can see, they are all wrong randomly, but not necessarily at the same time.
Accu Weather will tell you the rain will stop in 7 minutes but it didn't rain.

Stu from NYC 09-28-2023 05:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shimpy (Post 2261036)
Accu Weather will tell you the rain will stop in 7 minutes but it didn't rain.
Well 7 minutes after they say it will start there will be no rain so they are right about that. Sort of.


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