Originally Posted by ThirdOfFive
(Post 2148914)
Actually that would be four decades: the 1980s, the 1990s, the 2000s, and the 2010s. which would mean, if the research quoted was accurate, that hurricanes in 1980 were 32% less severe than hurricanes in 2020.
I did quite a bit of clicking around this morning to see if I could find evidence to support or refute the theory that there was that much variation in hurricane severity over the years, but the data I could find was all over the map. Interestingly enough the "severity" of hurricanes are measured in one of two ways; wind speed or barometric pressure, and depending on the method the list of "severe" storms can be quite different. Some people attempt to categorize hurricanes according to damage and/or deaths, but that is sophistic. For instance, the deadliest Atlantic hurricane on record was the "Great Hurricane" (Huracán San Calixto) killed over 22,000 people (some estimates of close to 30,000) but that was back in 1780! No data about wind speed of that storm is available, only estimates, though it is believed to have been a category 5. It should be noted as well that Huracán San Calixto struck the Antilles (Hispaniola, St. Kitts, Nevis, several other islands) which were agrarian cultures, growing mainly sugar cane, and as I assume slaves were counted as property, not people, the toll could have been far higher than reported.
Interestingly enough, 1780 is still the deadliest hurricane year on record, though I'll bet the farm that many people believe it was actually 2005 and Katrina.
Another fly in this particular ointment is that the old data records probably only the hurricanes that made landfall, and many don't, so it is quite possible that in years like 1780 there were quite a few more storms than were reported. Today we track every tropical depression using a variety of methods and get hour-by-hour updates, but 200 years ago those methods didn't exist.
Bottom line: we can choose whatever we want to believe and can find statistics to support it. But, as Mark Twain once observed, there are three kinds of untruths, "lies, damned lies, and statistics".
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