[sounding]

Even though Hurricane season is half over, I'll be giving talk called "Hurricane Outlooks (the secrets of hurricane projections revealed)" on Monday, Sep 27. It's for the Villages' Science & Technology Club, at the Bridgeport Recreation Center, at 1 PM. I'll discuss how NOAA and other agencies create seasonal hurricane outlooks.

[YankeesFan]

Originally Posted by sounding

Even though Hurricane season is half over, I'll be giving talk called "Hurricane Outlooks (the secrets of hurricane projections revealed)" on Monday, Sep 27. It's for the Villages' Science & Technology Club, at the Bridgeport Recreation Center, at 1 PM. I'll discuss how NOAA and other agencies create seasonal hurricane outlooks.

I thought the models would be better nowadays then they are

[sounding]

I agree. While the models are very, very slowly getting better, the big problem, which is rarely mentioned, is the lack of data. Satellites can see more that we did years ago, but they can't tell us the storm's central pressure or maximum wind speeds -- which are critical for model input. And there are more factors too, which are discussed at the Villages Weather Club meetings. Interestingly, those annual hurricane seasonal outlooks, which I'll talk about on Monday, are not based on weather or climate models at all -- but purely statistical analyses.

[Dana1963]

Originally Posted by sounding

I agree. While the models are very, very slowly getting better, the big problem, which is rarely mentioned, is the lack of data. Satellites can see more that we did years ago, but they can't tell us the storm's central pressure or maximum wind speeds -- which are critical for model input. And there are more factors too, which are discussed at the Villages Weather Club meetings. Interestingly, those annual hurricane seasonal outlooks, which I'll talk about on Monday, are not based on weather or climate models at all -- but purely statistical analyses.

Weather people either are half right or half wrong and still get to keep their jobs and always have excuses.

[sounding]

Just like no one can predict the stock market -- the same holds true for weather. Any fool can make a prediction -- and you should only trust those with a track record of being right more than wrong. Always remember what Niels Bohr said, "Prediction is very difficult, especially it it's about the future."