Talk of The Villages Florida - More accurate rain forecast needed

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Well I've lived here for five years. I've learned: this is the rainy season, and it started a month ago. It starts with rain in the mornings or early afternoons, thus completely ruining your day. It progresses abruptly to mid or late afternoons into evening, completely ruining your night. So for a couple of months every year, count on it being too hot or wet to do anything outdoors at night, or too hot or wet to do anything in the day, with scattered "both" throughout the two-month period.

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Originally Posted by Girlcopper (Post 2351516)

Who cares?? Just carry an umbrella. Simple

Last study said 87% of the population over 21 cared about the weather and wished they would get it right more often. Interestingly females cared more than males.

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Originally Posted by Nana2Teddy (Post 2351552)

Last night’s thunderstorm with the insane non-stop lightning was the worst we’ve experienced since moving here to DeLuna in December 2022. I was seriously terrified! We had planned to take a golf cart ride to Brownwood for the last hour of Rocky and the Rollers, but it was starting to look kinda iffy weather-wise by 8 so we decided to stay home at the last minute. By 8:40 the storm had hit with a vengeance and lasted at least two hours. We were so thankful we hadn’t gone out. The Weather Bug app had said 65% chance of rain, but it rarely happens here in our village as predicted.

You're right, yesterday at one point I saw a 30% chance of rain, so I thought - no rain today 70% good odds. Holy moly! It took a while to get here, but when it did...hang on.

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Originally Posted by Dusty_Star (Post 2351676)

You're right, yesterday at one point I saw a 30% chance of rain, so I thought - no rain today 70% good odds. Holy moly! It took a while to get here, but when it did...hang on.

POP (probability of precipitation) forecasts are very misleading -- plus they can't be verified because there are no rain gauges in most places on earth. For example ... a 100% POP forecasts can verify if only 0.01" fell on one house - within the designated forecast area ... and if there was no rain gauge at that house it won't be recorded as a hit. Plus ... POP forecasts DO NOT infer rain Intensity or Duration -- but only a Yes/No event. Learn more tomorrow, July 22 at 1 PM at the Bridgeport Rec Ctr ... and learn about the 2 houses that caught fire from last night's lightning storms.

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Originally Posted by sounding (Post 2351251)

1. The answer as to why the rain forecasts stink is reviewed in the weather club's talk called "why the european weather model is best" ... Which is next given august 19 at 10 am at everglades for the science & tech club - south.

2. Even though the euro model is better, we are still far from accurate daily rain forecasts due to (1) lack of sufficient data and (2) lack of knowledge of how clouds work.

3. With a few trillion dollars injected into improving weather data & science, we could be much closer to better forecasts, but we instead spend it on the fake climate crisis.

cmafb

Cheyenne Mountain Air Force Base ... never been there, but thanks for the reference.

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Originally Posted by Arctic Fox (Post 2351191)

I have been using the weather.com website for years and, at this time of year, they always start off by predicting a high chance of rain in the afternoon which, quite often, drops away dramatically

For example, at 3pm this afternoon (2pm in brackets) they showed the following chance of rain:

5pm - 41% (76%)
6pm - 71% (98%)
7pm - 79% (98%)
8pm - 71% (68%)

so, in the space of an hour, their prediction for rain at 6pm and 7pm dropped from a confident "almost certain" 98% to considerably less.

To put it another way, their prediction of "no rain" at 6pm has soared from 2% to 29%!

I know weather forecasting is an inaccurate science, but they can see what's coming from hundreds of miles away so why can't they be a little more accurate for what's going to happen in just a few hours?

Their percentages for rain do this almost every day - go on-line in the morning and they will predict a very high chance of rain, yet a few hours later it will most likely have plummeted

It's almost as if they start off with exactly the same figures every day, ignoring all of their instruments, then crank them down as time goes on, just to give themselves something to do

Anyway, what sites do you use for weather in the next 24 hours?

Thank you

Unlike other states (or up north) where we all came from which has weather fronts move through (and pretty predictable), here in Central Florida, the weather is predicated on the winds from the Atlantic meeting in the middle of the state (us) with winds from the Gulf of Mexico. If you watch the radar on Weather Channel (or other app). you will see storms pop up like popcorn. The % for a time is for a larger area and usually overstated. The Villages can often get rain in one village by not the next

Example PWS Rainfall within a 3mi radius this evening.