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-   -   NAO Suggests 2024 Landfall Hurricanes Less Likely (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/weather-talk-515/nao-suggests-2024-landfall-hurricanes-less-likely-350792/)

sounding 06-17-2024 06:27 AM

1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by rsmurano (Post 2341687)
If we have been getting cooler air here, I would hate to see it when it gets hot!
I wouldn’t say that May and June were cool.

As Einstein said, everything is relative. Beyond that, it's best to look at data for comparison purposes, which shows no significant change over many years. I picked Ocala as it does not suffer for UHI (Urban Heat Island) effect which is unfortunately contaminating many thermometers -- producing inflated temperatures.

justjim 06-17-2024 06:39 AM

Nobody knows for sure what “Mother Nature” is going to do period. Almost 3/4 of the earth is covered with water and 96% of the water is salt water.

Rodneysblue 06-17-2024 07:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThirdOfFive (Post 2341463)
We won't have any hurricanes.

Until we do.

Just like last week when we were supposed to get get all sorts of rain. We got one little blip one day and finally got 3/4” Sunday. I know this for a fact, I checked my weather rock and it was dry most of the week.

Girlcopper 06-17-2024 07:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Keefelane66 (Post 2341589)
And again it could be 50% right or 50% wrong.

Always is. . If it comes it comes. And all other predictions said there would be a busy season. Soooo. Which do you believe??? So why bother worrying about it. House blows away? Oh well.

Battlebasset 06-17-2024 09:16 AM

So if the season is predicted to be worse than average, what would you do different?

1. Get the basement storage up on pallets? I don't have a basement.
2. Buy sandbags? The Villages has a great water management system, and again, I don't have a basement or even a crawlspace.
3. Buy a generator? Don't need it for a well, don't need it for heat. If the power is off too long I'll go to a rec center that has power and hang out in the AC there. Unless the power is off 24 hours or more, leave your fridge closed. Or have a huge BBQ if things thaw.
4. Leave? I suppose if it's going to hit us dead center. But we live in central Florida vs the coasts for a reason. Not much better place to be if in Florida.

“I've had a lot of worries in my life, most of which never happened.”
― Mark Twain

sounding 06-17-2024 09:29 AM

1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by Battlebasset (Post 2341794)
So if the season is predicted to be worse than average, what would you do different?

1. Get the basement storage up on pallets? I don't have a basement.
2. Buy sandbags? The Villages has a great water management system, and again, I don't have a basement or even a crawlspace.
3. Buy a generator? Don't need it for a well, don't need it for heat. If the power is off too long I'll go to a rec center that has power and hang out in the AC there. Unless the power is off 24 hours or more, leave your fridge closed. Or have a huge BBQ if things thaw.
4. Leave? I suppose if it's going to hit us dead center. But we live in central Florida vs the coasts for a reason. Not much better place to be if in Florida.

“I've had a lot of worries in my life, most of which never happened.”
― Mark Twain

Here are the direct hits over the last 175 years ... nothing more than a Cat 1 hurricane. Notice the dates.

Andyb 06-18-2024 06:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sounding (Post 2341444)
The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is a fair predictor regarding landfalling hurricanes. We are currently in a Negative NAO phase, which generally produces cooler air over the eastern U.S., which in turn inhibits hurricane landfalls.

MSM loves gloom and doom News, it’s all about making opinions and money and not reporting truthful news.

sounding 06-18-2024 06:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andyb (Post 2341996)
MSM loves gloom and doom News, it’s all about making opinions and money and not reporting truthful news.

And they still won't admit Tonga is increasing current warming ... even though NASA said it would 2 years ago.

Sandy and Ed 06-18-2024 07:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pballer (Post 2341607)
It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.

That’s why I always watch the weather report the following day telling me what did happen. The weatherman is always 100% accurate!!

cherylncliff 06-18-2024 09:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blueash (Post 2341605)
Why do you think everything is a conspiracy and that the real truth is being hidden. Right there is the post you are responding to is the actual verification data on the forecasts made. Nobody is hiding anything. There is not some vast cabal of meteorologists or climate experts who are removing data on how many hurricanes developed each year.

For something that is "Not publicized" there sure are a lot of google hits on exactly the issue you claim is being hidden.

Looks like the forecasters did well.

Tavernierlady 06-18-2024 04:21 PM

Only takes one
 
If I remember correctly in 1992 hurricane Andrew (a Category 5) was the only Atlantic hurricane to make landfall that year. That said it only takes1 hurricane to have a devastating hurricane season.

sounding 06-18-2024 07:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tavernierlady (Post 2342207)
If I remember correctly in 1992 hurricane Andrew (a Category 5) was the only Atlantic hurricane to make landfall that year. That said it only takes1 hurricane to have a devastating hurricane season.

Devastating hurricanes occur every year around the world, and for probably for many millions of years. The 1992 hurricane season had only 1 major hurricane - Andrew. Fortunately, the trend for major hurricanes is not only decreasing, but there were none at all in 2013.

MorTech 06-18-2024 11:06 PM

NWS says there are going to be many this year...so there will be more like none.

I look forward to more hurricane parties where we drink tequila and sacrifice virgins to the hurricane god. This keeps seasonal hurricane activity low. Just follow the science.


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