Everyday 50 / 50 chance of rain. Either it will or it won’t. Just my opinion & usually I’m prepared for whatever

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I typically look at "weather.com" when I am in a hurry. When I have time there are other sources of raw data that only a meteorologist would find interesting.

The hourly forecasts on weather.com are worth looking at in the very short term - a few hours before you are going outside. Also, I tend to look at the weather radar in Jacksonville to see how precipitation areas are moving.

In the warm season there is significant variability with precipitation. With a morning forecast of 50% showers and thunderstorms for The Villages, it can be raining in Sumter Landing but not raining in Brownwood. You can consider that a "correct forecast". There are limits to what the science can do. There is less variability in precipitation during the cold season so the forecasts are more spatially precise further out in time.

At one time I was paid as a research scientist for the National Weather Service. I am now retired. If we have another significant weather event I will again post my thoughts. Here's hoping that I don't post very often.

Be careful with weatherbug, it's full of spam.

Me too. "My Radar" by Acme Aconometrics for Windows 10. You can see where it's raining anywhere in the U.S. Not a tool for long-term forecasting but it shows where the rain is and how big an area it covers and whether there is convection.

You Service to our Community should not be Overlooked. As a Newbie For Irma and the Non-Named Big Storm the year before it was your matter of fact Updates that calmed us the most and then at one point let us know it was time to bail out. I'm comfortable with our decision with your assist.

I've heard there are 4400 Manufactured Home in The Historic Section. Let's overestimate that half are Snowbirds. Where would the other 2200 households with one or two residents and all the other people who live in Manufactured/Mobile/Park Models in other local communities evacuate to? Where do people with animals evacuate to?

My point, there is a high probability that we will be sitting tight in our own home if there ever is another event unless its a whopper. We are as prepared as we can be. There are 18 people in the little gang that we hang with here. 14 of them who are long-time residents stayed during Irma and laughed at us for taking off into Georgia into a town near Tifton Georgia. At that time I figured better safe than sorry. My thinking really hasn't changed it's just the weather doesn't shake us up at all anymore. It concerns us sometimes but that a big improvement over the way it was two years ago.

Thank You :super: Tuccillo, You Are The Best!

Thanks for the warning - much appreciated. :thumbup:

Oh, sorry Tuccillo, I just read this post. When people said you were the best forecaster ever I thought it was because of your arthritis. My dad had a type of arthritis that could forecast rain very very accurately.

My parents lived in the historic section from 1995 to 2011 and only once did they had to fix the roof during that time, that I remember.

I don’t have arthritis yet - just some occasional aches and pains that come from forgetting that I am not 22 anymore ;-)