It appears that Donald Trump has about 33% of the primary votes in his pocket. Not enough to win the nomination.

Considering Jeb's relationship with Rubio and both being from Florida, I would suspect most of his supporters to go to Rubio. This will put Rubio somewhere around 29%

Kasich and Carson have about 15% between them. Even if they all went to Trump, it wouldn't be enough to secure the nomination. So where do these votes go?

If they are split evenly, and I think that is highly unlikely, we'd have Trump at 38%, Rubio at 34% and Cruz at 27%. Does Cruz drop out if that's the case? If he does, his people are not going to support Trump. Rubio would almost certainly become the nominee. If he picks Kasich as his running mate, I believe the republicans win the White House easily over any democratic candidate.

If Cruz decides to stay in we'll have a brokered convention. If it does, then Trump is certainly gone as the party will not support him.

Trump's big problem is his negatives which are far higher than any candidate on either side. As the other's drop out, his share of the vote is not going to increase.

Just my thoughts on what I'm witnessing.