Several people have referenced an article in the WSJ regarding the coming surge of Covid-19 cases in the villages, so I decided to post a daily update on the surge. Since there is no separate reporting for the Villages specifically, I decided to combine the numbers from the 3 counties that include portions of the villages, as reported by the Daily Sun. It's not perfect, but its a pretty good representation of the overall trends in our part of central Florida.
As of today, we have 507 reported cases in Lake, Marion and Sumter county. Dividing by total deaths of 21 gives us a case fatality rate of 4.1%. That is higher that the state average of 3%, I assume in part due to the fact that Sumter county has the highest average age of any county in Florida, so a higher percentage of the population is at risk. On the other hand, it appears that the case fatality rate of new infections is much lower, possibly due to more widespread testing and better treatment.
Update 4/24/20
Tri county area:
New cases: 1 an increase of 0.19%
New fatalities: 0
Total cases: 507
Sumter county:
New cases: 1, an increase of 0.6% of total cases, and a decrease of 90% in the growth rate, although the numbers were likely skewed (see below)
New fatalities: 0
Total cases: 164
Someone mentioned on the last thread that most of the new cases likely came from the correctional facility in Bushnell, and looking into the numbers that seems to be true.
A good source for current numbers by state and country, as well as a series of charts showing projected numbers can be found on the IHME website:
COVID-19
It shows the total projected deaths in the United States from C-19 during this pandemic to be 67,641. As a point of reference, the CDC estimates that the US had 61,000 fatalities during the seasonal flu season of 2018.
Stay safe and be reasonable