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Originally Posted by golfing eagles
Not at all. It is an interesting retrospective review of previous pandemics. They don't give a single opinion, they list 3 scenarios, and yes, we still need to be prepared for all 3. But it doesn't mean any of those nicely graphed scenarios will come to pass. What about scenario #4---the pandemic fizzles out and is not heard from again? I find that unlikely given that international travel will resume sooner or later and there are some mutations that may occur. I guess it depends on how you define "the fat lady singing". If it means there are zero cases for 5 years, then she is still singing. If it means the worst is over in 3-4 months, then she might still be whimpering, but all the major arias have been sung.
Most people don't know the difference in various scientific studies, but the best designed ones are multiple university sited, double blinded, placebo controlled prospective studies with at least 2500 patients. This type of retrospective comparison does not lend itself to such rigorous criteria. So take it for what it is worth and what it intended to show, but less so as a predictive indicator.
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Dr Fauci says second wave of coronavirus is 'inevitable' The nation’s top epidemiologist said Tuesday the United States could be in for “a bad fall and a bad winter,” if it's not prepared for a second wave of the virus.
And LOL. Epidemiologists don't conduct double blinded placebo controlled clinical trials to predict the course of pandemics, especially with a new virus. They study past outbreaks that are have similar person to person spread, R factor etc