Quote:
Originally Posted by Arctic Fox
An assessment that any recovery in the economy will take until "2025 or 2030" seems incredibly pessimistic to me. People sitting at home unable to work is bound to cause unemployment numbers to rise and production to fall, yet the media is announcing these things as if they were unexpected.
Once people get back to work, which most of them will have done before the end of 2020, these numbers will be back to close to pre-covid levels. Add in the pent up demand from consumers (not just products, but services, too) and the likelihood that, having been caught out by "just in time" stocking, companies will adopt "just in case" levels of stock and you have a recipe for a quick recovery in the economy.
As already pointed out, the stock market is evaluating the future not the present and, in my opinion, that future is 2021, not 2025 or 2030.
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Although a valid opinion, the supply chains coming from around the world might have different or less solvable issues that will constrain the US re-stocking. The urban exodus with the work from home movement may require a different distribution system. Houses in suburbia are selling fast. A close friends daughter mid 20's came out of a Friday meeting where it was determined that everyone will WFH for now, maybe office visit 1-2 a quarter, and she bought a house the next Monday 3 hours from the city, prior to the house being on the market, from the builder at list price, with a one hour time limit on the offer, with a real estate agent who had an idea for that type of person's requirements.
Another example, company's discussing return to office plans are seeing huge elevator restrictions, so high rise offices will be out of favor for a while. Both mine and coachk's have these restrictions.
So retail supply and distribution systems will be changed, and that won't be without pain of deflation in real estate in some areas and abrupt inflation in another, and debt repayment issues, will hopefully be avoided.
Workforce turnover with age discrimination will be another, where older white collar workers who aren't ready or able to retire early will be forced to accept lower wages, which will cause a drag on disposable income sales, and older toy sales, ie deflation.
So, the stock market is not the economy, WFH relocation may cause more unintended consequences than are currently expected. Debt issues have been deferred, not solved, and so while the news is good, its just for today, as the future is uncertain, with some days more than others.
So glad that the TV house is fully WFH secure with high speed internet available with hard wired outlets in every room for a secure environment. Multiple monitor space available at the desks. So good we are driving down to WFH in TV for the rest of june!