[vermonster]

Originally Posted by Joelack99

Yes, this is the middle of the first wave.

What has become apparent is that transmission rates are different depending on how people act. If we continue to act as we have been, the virus will be totally out of control, much like a forest fire, and will eventually burn out (assuming immunity you get from surviving it lasts for awhile, NOT proven,) but do terrible damage (read many will die) in the process. Not paranoia, math.

The “reproductive rate” of the virus is between 2.5 and 6 if you do nothing, meaning each infected person will infect that many more people. At R0=1, the epidemic doesn’t grow or shrink, so we have to do whatever it takes to reduce that number. Cloth masks are ~60% effective, essential but not good enough by itself. (2.5 times .6 is still >1)

Social distancing improves this, so if most people wear masks, the R0 rate can be brought below 1, according to those pesky scientists who spend their entire lives studying these things. This is the only way we get our epidemic in control. The math is simple and clear.

Wear the mask. Socially distance. Be patient. If the outbreak is bad enough, stay home, no matter how much you hate it.

The alternative is really, really, ugly.

Your comments are logical, factual, and sensible. It is nice to read a reasoned factual analysis on this site.