Quote:
Originally Posted by Tblue
Does anyone recall the number of %65-%70 to achieve herd immunity? I recall prior to the vaccine the only way out was herd immunity. It would seem we are well over the %70 number with vaccines and those who have had COVID. Where we lied to about herd immunity or has the goal changed?
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The 65% - 70% number was a guess based on the understanding of the virus at the time. Since then, more has been more learned about the virus and the virus has changed making the original guess moot.
According to information I can find, about 62% of those in the US have taken the vaccine. There have been something like 54M cases or about 16% of the population. Even if you simply added 62%+16%=78% the number is not "well over %70." But you can't simply add that way - many of the 16% are part of the 62% that are vaccinated, some number of the 16% had mild cases and did not acquire immunity, some number of the 16% were false-positives, and some number of the 16% died from their infection.
The 70% guess was probably low at the start and the virus has now changed to where the number needed is much higher. We are probably close to only 70% today which means we aren't close to where we need to be. With the anti-vaxers or vaccine-hesitant or those who choose to be misinformed, there is a long way to go.