Quote:
Originally Posted by JMintzer
Estonia is part of NATO and the citizens LOATHE Russia...
If Putin tries to take Estonia back, we're talking WW III
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True. Along with Latvia and Lithuania. That is guaranteed by treaty; All three Balkan countries are members of NATO (have been for nearly 20 years) and any aggression against any of the 30 NATO member countries guarantees retaliation in kind by the other 29. In addition Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania all maintain robust multi-national forces stationed on their soil. Putin may be ruthless to a fault but I doubt he is a fool. He’ll not in effect declare war simultaneously on 30 European, Eurasian and Western Hemisphere nations (31 now, with Finland) by attacking any one of them.
Ukraine is different. Aside from Russia and Ukraine sharing the same culture, customs (and corruption), Ukraine happens to employ the unenviable geographic position of superhighway for whatever land force decides to foray into Russia from Western Europe. It’s wide, flat plains have seen invasions of Russia by numerous countries to the west, the major ones beginning with the Polish-Muscovite War of 1610 (The Poles actually got as far as Moscow), then of course Napoleon’s ill-fated attempt, repeated by Hitler in 1941. Numerous smaller forays were also undertaken, through this route and others, throughout medieval and early modern European history. But today Russia’s zone of buffer states (the former “Iron Curtain” countries) are new either NATO members or are cozying up to NATO. If Ukraine defects to NATO Russia, with the exception of their satellite Belarus, lies completely exposed, and with Germany now sporting the largest and most effective non-nuclear land military force in Europe—well, Russians know history as well as anyone and better than most. Thirty MILLION of them died the last time an invasion came from the West.
Putin will do whatever it takes to keep Ukraine out of the hands of NATO. He knows history too.