[ThirdOfFive]

What can be said about NYC can most likely be said, to a greater or lesser extent, about most major metropolitan centers in America.

To quote Mark Twain, there are three kinds of untruths: "Lies, damned lies, and statistics". Of the three, I think that statistics are the worse; they can be fudged or manipulated to way whatever the manipulator wants them to say.

Several posts have mentioned how some cities and areas play with the statistics. Post #55 for example mentions changing rape to assault, burglary to larceny, etc. Unfortunately in many areas it goes deeper than that. In many cases it is all in how the words of the presenter are strung together. I remember reading an article a few months back (can't remember where) that stated (in paraphrase) "Minneapolis has seen a significant increase in property crime these last few years, but that is slowly starting to decline". One had to read a bit further down in the article to realize that what was meant, was that the rate of INCREASE has begun to decline--such crimes are still on the increase, just not as fast.

Another example: shoplifting in Minnesota is a crime: any property taken up to the value of $500 is a misdemeanor. $500 - $1,000 a gross misdemeanor. Anything over $1,000 in value can be prosecuted as a felony. A recent report in The Minnesota Reformer (Dec. 1, 2023) indicates that "Reported cases of shoplifting in Minneapolis and St. Paul have fallen considerably since the pre-pandemic period, according to the latest data from the Council on Criminal Justice, a nonprofit tracking crime figures". Well and good...except that it has become the unwritten practice in many areas in Minnesota, not just Minneapolis, to not even report shoplifting below the $1,000 level, and even when reported shoplifting is not commonly prosecuted to the point of a conviction. In other words, what the "numbers" say is becoming more and more divorced from reality as time passes. Contrast that to the reality here, in Sumter County, where arrests for shoplifting are common, even for amounts that would get you a belly laugh if reported to law enforcement in the MSP Metro. For instance, I read not too long ago in The Online Paper That Shall Not Be Named that a shoplifter at a local Wal-Mart had been identified and tracked down by the local law--for taking things total value around $60.00! It doesn't take any great perceptual skill to realize that comparing shoplifting statistics between Minneapolis (Hennepin County) vs. those of The Villages (Sumter County) is going to give the reader a completely erroneous picture of the frequency of actual crimes being committed.

A good rule of thumb (IMO anyway): if you're trying to judge how safe a certain metro area might be, check how strongly the police are supported and empowered by the local population of that area. That should tell you what you need to know.