Quote:
Originally Posted by biker1
People want black and white in a gray world and linear in a non-linear world. There are limits to the predictability of warm season convection with very weak flow. It can rain on one side of The Villages and not the other. Large spatial variabilities exist. Cool season predictability is much higher. We generate unsteady solutions to non-linear PDEs where chaos theory applies. There are limits.
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Bingo - exactly right. Humans by default, think linearly. Our atmosphere is complex and reacts in a non-linear fashion, both in space and time -- and this is especially true for climate models. As such, they are unable to replicate some of earth's basic air/ocean wind & thermal patterns, such as ENSO and QBO. If you can't replicate the past, you can't forecast the future. As for hurricane outlooks, they only got it right 3 times during the past 28 years of April outlooks.