Quote:
Originally Posted by Normal
Inflation is down and lowering both here and globally. . .
Interest rates will be cut at least a couple times this year.
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way too confident in the data pointing the certain future results . .
First, the federal reserve just prioritized labor markets over inflation.
Second the labor market is showing more weakening. . however, the weekly labor stats are very noisy when there is a holiday in the data. . so the interest rates may be lowered for the labor market, and the inflation may run higher than historical targets. .
Looking under the data for CPI, there are some very large increases, which should be concerning. .
1) Unrounded core is +0.346% so *barely* avoided rounding up
2) Between CPI and PPI it seems that retailers are eating a decent chunk of tariffs for the moment, to avoid big price swings on every whimsical change of tariff rates, and the potential refunds based upon the SC decision on who owns the tariff rate policy. Big refunds could look like price gouging to retailers or retail suppliers.
3) food and energy the major rises, which are cash living expenses as compared to owners equivalent rent (OER)
4) Getting closer to the SS cost of living increase calculation, and if they increase closer to core or PCE, and food/energy going up much faster, our disposable income will go down, slowing growth, not easing labor issues.
5)
https://x.com/ISABELNET_SA/status/1960626144056881179
🇺🇸 Inflation
The US ISM Services Prices Paid Index typically leads US CPI inflation by three months, indicating that changes in the index can help predict future CPI trends.
US ISM services prices paid is going up . . not looking good for the disinflation scenario. .
good luck to us!
former finance guy