Talk of The Villages Florida - View Single Post - Time to get out of stocks?
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Old 02-06-2013, 10:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by buzzy View Post
>>If the S&P falls by 10% (last 60 day high) I will move 25% of stocks to cash. Falls 20% I will move 50% to cash. I will buy again when it rises by 10% from last 60 day low and again when it rises by 20% from the low. <<

This is a form of market timing. These rules are an algorithm for what is referred to as mechanical timing.
I agree it is a mechanical timing but rarely executed. Think 2008. I hit the 10% once in 2011, but it happened fast and recovered above it before I sold. I put this in place in about 2002. So far 2008 is the only time I had to implement it. Did both in 2008, the 25% and 50% move from equities to cash. Kept 50% of the equities in place through it all. However also bought back in based on the 10% and 20% rise so was totally recovered by the end of 2009 where most people it took until mid 2012. It works only as a safe guard against huge negative swings in the market. Look at it as a stop loss order on stocks that I self manage using index mutual funds. It is a small part of a total investment strategy where I will sustain only a 15% portfolio loss of income with up to a 50% market decline. I also have a pre-defined bond strategy based on interest rates, but a little harder to explain.
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