I am not a mathematician, but I think that the factoring would go something like this.
Odds on a hole in one by any player.
Odds of a player making three holes in one in a life time.
Odds of a player making three holes in one on the same hole in a lifetime.
Odds of a player making three holes in one on the same numbered hole on different golf courses in a life time.
If the first one is 1:12,000, you can only imagine what the number is for the last one.
There are also statistic for making a hole in one depending on the length of the hole. There is a much greater chance of a hole in one being made on a hole that is 100 yards compared to a hole that it 250 yards. Most players cannot reach a 250 yard par 3. Almost all can reach a 100 yard hole so there will be many more chances of a hole in one on a shorter hole.
Then there are the odds of any of these by players age, players gender and players skill level.
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