Got Cash????

[dewilson58]

It's been a great time to drive into the market.

Massive emotional sell-off...................came back nicely, now is it going to run???

Wait until June, might be too late for the easy gains.

:mmmm:

[MrLonzo]

It's been a great time to drive into the market.

Massive emotional sell-off...................came back nicely, now is it going to run???

Wait until June, might be too late for the easy gains.

:mmmm:

Just 2 weeks ago, I was pounding the table telling anyone that would listen that this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to get into the stock market. It's a time when many future millionaires are made. Already coming back, and will continue -- but if there is another pullback, that's just another opportunity!

[jimhoward]

If you have significant cash, then you haven't been fully invested in the market. If you cashed out more than a year ago, then the recent dip did not even reach your prior exit point.

Market timing is tough.

Now if somebody has some sort of new found cash windfall then its a different story. I guess that is what you are taking about.

[It's Hot There]

I've kept the emotion and hype out of the last 60 days and the purchases have been quite rewarding.

Never seen a dip which did not come back, profitably.

NOT market timing.................just not "cash" holding.

[justjim]

IRA’S have been in mutual funds since retirement. 60/40 has worked for me. My few personal stocks are in long term value dividend and a couple of growth ones. Not a trader since retirement. No worries. But each to their own.

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

I'm in 25% cash waiting on DJIA 30K

[CoachKandSportsguy]

It's been a great time to drive into the market.
Massive emotional sell-off...................came back nicely, now is it going to run???
Wait until June, might be too late for the easy gains.
:mmmm:

the future is uncertain, be nibble

Emotional NO!, earnings forecasts are coming down. Companies are not giving forecast guidance this quarter's calls. Easy scenario: zero earnings growth, average growth multiple, you have 4,000 SPX very easily.

GDP down, equities down, dollar down, oil down, bonds down, 10 year term premium rising, Fed playing the data waiting game -> -> this combo never an optimistic scenario. Technicals have a good couple of days and everyone is bullish?

Foreigners have stopped investing in the USA, but have yet to start selling. 401K month end salary systemic buying still happening, until employment falls, then emergency usage will cause 401K selling.

Other Bear Market not a good time to buy actual bear market rallies:

2022: 3/15/2022 - 3/29-2022 11% rally, by 5/12/2022 15+% percent selloff
2020: 7/31/2020 - 9/2/2020 10% rally by 9/23/2020 12+% selloff
2007-2008: had similar 8%+ rallies with 10% selloffs soon after
2000: 9/1/2000 -> 12/20/2000 20+% sell off, 8.6%% rally, by 3/22/2001 20% sell off
so the always recovered is true, but maybe not from the current levels

The only "good news" at the moment, is that Walmart, Target and Home Depot have resumed shipments from China after the WH meeting. In the latest week ships leaving China were 40% full, which means product scarcities will happen for a period of time. **Then expect a 10-15% price increase to absorb the tariffs and pass it along. ** info sourced from consumer goods P/E firm concerning tariff strategy

Tariff vs tax source comparison:
< $36,000 family 0% income tax earners: tariffs crushing, no relief even with tax relief
< 72,000 family 12% income tax earnings: tariffs crushing until tax relief given, then neutral, no change in spending, assuming tax free income
< 125,,000 family 22% income tax threshold: tariffs doable, but eats more than half of discretionary vacation / enjoyment surplus with tax relief
> $210,000 family, >22% income tax threshold, irritated beyond belief, but can easily survive

Project 2025 in full execution mode. . . will it work or tank the economy?

:censored::censored::censored:

[RICH1]

But why is a Older Retiree taking a High Risk by investing in the market..This is "nuts"

[Aces4]

IRA’S have been in mutual funds since retirement. 60/40 has worked for me. My few personal stocks are in long term value dividend and a couple of growth ones. Not a trader since retirement. No worries. But each to their own.

Exactly!

[Aces4]

But why is a Older Retiree taking a High Risk by investing in the market..This is "nuts"

I consider it as if the oldsters are sitting in the casino and putting their cash on the table. Hard to feel sorry for them, they wanted to play the game. Much of it's greed.

[Topspinmo]

I consider it as if the oldsters are sitting in the casino and putting their cash on the table. Hard to feel sorry for them, they wanted to play the game. Much of it's greed.

I was in casino once walked right pass all the pre-programmed games to auditorium, then walked right back out when event was over. IMO anybody that plays video slots are the biggest suckers walking face of earth. :faint:

[bopat]

Buy low sell high

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

But why is a Older Retiree taking a High Risk by investing in the market..This is "nuts"

Because they'll be dead soon and therefore it doesn't matter how much or little they have in the end? The Lord doesn't impose tariffs on imported souls to Heaven. Either you get in free, or you don't get in.

[dewilson58]

But why is a Older Retiree taking a High Risk by investing in the market..This is "nuts"

"High Risk" is a degree and an opinion.

"nuts" is also an opinion.

:ho:

[mrf6969]

So, who has a great stockbroker here in the TV area that has a great proven track record in the ups and downs?

[dewilson58]

So, who has a great stockbroker here in the TV area that has a great proven track record in the ups and downs?

May want to start a new thread with an appropriate title to get responses.

Most don't use a stockbroker............but you have a better chance of more answers in a new thread.

:beer3:

[jimhoward]

But why is a Older Retiree taking a High Risk by investing in the market..This is "nuts"

Perhaps because they still think long term and don't make the timeline for their portfolio ending when they die. Stocks are not risky in the long term. Stocks will for sure be higher in the future and so will be your portfolio even if its owned by your heirs and you aren't around to see it.

The only reason to go hyper conservative is if you are worried you may run out of money and need to tap into your equities during a down period.

[dewilson58]

Sooooooooo glad I didn't panic and sit in cash.

:coolsmiley:

[Michael G.]

But why is a Older Retiree taking a High Risk by investing in the market..This is "nuts"

According to my financial adviser up north, old age doesn't have anything to do
with investing heavy stocks.
Being to conservative in retirement is worse.

[manaboutown]

Until I sold off some RE in 2022 and 2023 stocks were never a significant portion of my assets and I paid them little attention. My stocks are doing well enough. I keep rolling over the T-bills, so I am now about 70-30 stocks to cash after initially being maybe 55-45 as a guess . Most of my assets remain in commercial real estate, though. Just bought some STZ a couple days ago that went up 4% overnight. Now that rarely happens for me but it was an enjoyable experience. Salud!

[Aces4]

According to my financial adviser up north, old age doesn't have anything to do
with investing heavy stocks.
Being to conservative in retirement is worse.

Did it occur to you that your financial adviser up north makes a fat living off old people invested heavily in stocks? What a joke! If one planned poorly or life really went awry, being in the stock market in retirement is a ridiculous risk.

[Snowbirdtobe]

Bought NVDA for $100 in April 2025 (I was at a meeting in late March and I said I had a buy order and someone laughed). Sold July 16 for $171.00. Now investing in AI picks and shovels POET & ACMR. Not many $ but it's fun.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

From my daily financial readings, and I don't have data to back it up, the current market gain was more due to retail investment than professional investment.. . . ok, well done retail investors!

yes, I moved some money from investments to cash as the account was weighted too heavily to equities for our ages and risk tolerances. Fidelity advisor agreed, even though we disagreed on the annual outlook. .

For the 60e/40b folks, remember that the bonds gained for 40 years from the highs @1982, to the lows @2022, so the portfolio gain was both equity (e) plus bonds(b) . . that era is now gone for bonds, so the recommendation might be for more equity, but that just raises your portfolio risk, and in retirement, that might not be the best. .

Other equity bond like investments are:
1) Utility stock ETFs
2) Low beta good dividend large cap ETFs
3) Preferred shares with interest/dividend ETFs
4) Reits with good dividends and a good track record. .
avoiding commercial properties, focusing on a particular sector with quality recurring earnings.


The problem with equity risk is that many times the event is unpredictable and different each time, such that people aren't watching for that event in the financial world. Many times, risk also happens very fast, and not everyone can exit timely, especially retail. This time, I would be watching governmental bonds, US exchange rates, and international relations. the rise of nationalism may produce some unexpected results, particularly in unexpected areas, as well as the rise in socialism, which results in much worse conditions. . example South Africa. .

good luck we all need it in retirement

[manaboutown]

VOO stock: Retail investors are piling into S&P 500 at historic rate | Investorsobserver (https://investorsobserver.com/news/stock-update/voo-stock-retail-investors-are-piling-into-s-p-500-at-historic-rate/)

[JoelJohnson]

IRA’S have been in mutual funds since retirement. 60/40 has worked for me. My few personal stocks are in long term value dividend and a couple of growth ones. Not a trader since retirement. No worries. But each to their own.

Don't forget you have a partner with that IRA ... his name is Uncle Sam. Once you hit RMD age (73) you will have to withdraw funds from the IRA and pay taxes on it. If you plan on passing it along to kids, they will have to take 10% each year and add it to their taxable income.

[dewilson58]

VOO stock: Retail investors are piling into S&P 500 at historic rate | Investorsobserver (https://investorsobserver.com/news/stock-update/voo-stock-retail-investors-are-piling-into-s-p-500-at-historic-rate/)

All The Villagers dropping their advisors and indexing on their own.

:beer3:

[tophcfa]

All The Villagers dropping their advisors and indexing on their own.

:beer3:

Why not, asset allocation is by far the most important decision. Select your allocation mix and buy low cost index funds through Vanguard and/or Fidelity to achieve your allocation objectives and you’re good to go golfing.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Why not, asset allocation is by far the most important decision. Select your allocation mix and buy low cost index funds through Vanguard and/or Fidelity to achieve your allocation objectives and you’re good to go golfing.

because your retirement portfolio asset allocation shouldn't be 100% equities. .
and VOO is just 100% beta (the market).

The answer to my question now is, and i have been searching, albeit distracted with my parent's 60 year old house sale:

Given the following three different tax scenarios:
* IRA,
* ROTH,
* Non Qualified, taxable account

What's the best portfolio attributes and proportion for each account to minimize future taxes and maximize gains, given all taxable implications?

I know one can create a monte carlo linear optimization model with random shocks, both income and spending random hiccups, just haven't had time to set it up and run the various scenarios. . and I am assuming that most investment mgmt houses won't publish that secret, but you have to pay for it with managed funds. .

good luck to us. .

[Topspinmo]

Because they'll be dead soon and therefore it doesn't matter how much or little they have in the end? The Lord doesn't impose tariffs on imported souls to Heaven. Either you get in free, or you don't get in.

And how do we know that?