Thank you!! Cost of transportation, etc. All driven by fuel for the machine

You got an 8.7% cost of living allowance from Social Security last winter to cover that.

The OP is trying to find ways to justify a terrible economy, which still has elevated inflation, high energy costs, high food costs, high labor costs, etc… If we are in such good shape, why is the stock market still low? Why are 30 year loans close to 7%? Why is Powell projected to raise rates 2 more times this year and will be keeping the rates high for a longer period?
Trying to justify a good job at bringing gas prices down to $3+ a gallon when it was over a $1 cheaper in 2020 and never should be over $2 if we were still the dominant oil producer in the world. Selling our reserves to keep gas prices low is not a good strategy for the country.

But here is the PCE, which is more of what we buy, and is what the Fed, J Pow and the board look at to make interest rate decisions. Note that it isn't quite as low as the CPI with all the other crap thrown in, like owners equivalent rent. . . the rate is about 5% on a year over year basis. The sh!tty feeling about inflation is that income changes about once a year, and lags these changes so it messes with fixed budgets in the worst way

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Release: Personal Income and Outlays
Units: Index 2012=100, Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency: Monthly

BEA Account Code: DPCERG

The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index is a measure of the prices that people living in the United States, or those buying on their behalf, pay for goods and services. The change in the PCE price index is known for capturing inflation (or deflation) across a wide range of consumer expenses and reflecting changes in consumer behavior. For example, if the price of beef rises, shoppers may buy less beef and more chicken.

The PCE Price Index is produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), which revises previously published PCE data to reflect updated information or new methodology, providing consistency across decades of data that's valuable for researchers. They also offer the series as a Chain-Type index, as above. The PCE price index is used primarily for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting.

The PCE Price index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. The PCE Price Index is similar to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' consumer price index for urban consumers. The two indexes, which have their own purposes and uses, are constructed differently, resulting in different inflation rates.

I am still comparing gas and food prices to 2020. Everything is still very high from then. They may be a little better than a year ago, but in my opinion, still off the charts high.

If you’re going to directly mention a user name at least get it right. It was Michael G, not Michael61 you were responding to.

Totally incorrect.
Worldwide economics ties seemingly unrelated events together. Here's the timeline of cause and effects that triggered this inflation.

Energy companies lost a huge amount of money when Biden terminated land leases for oil and natural gas wells on federal land. The billions they invested in constructing those wells was instantly lost. Plus they lost the income from the raw product those wells would have produced.

Then Biden said no more leases.
The energy companies decided to hold on to (stop spending) their well investment dollars rather than risking it being lost on the whim of the president. They did not invest budgeted money into building new wells because they were worried about the the performance of new wells on existing unused leases that had a poor potential for being productive (that's why they were unused - junk geography after analysis), and fearing a repeat of Biden's previous financial hit.
That is where the record profits came from. Holding money instead of investing it. The future energy production is also now crippled.

So Biden said, ok, we will lease some land. It was the lousy areas. And there was no promise that leases wouldn't get pulled away again. A non-solution, but it sounded good in the press. Solved nothing.

That all had a cascading effect. Now there is not enough energy for the needs of the country. So the USA suddenly became an net importer of energy. No longer energy independent as more is being imported into the country than being exported. Foreign countries (Venezuela, Arabs, etc.. think OPEC) were happy to sell us energy, but at much higher prices than previously. The USA had no choice except to buy at those inflated prices. There is the reason for higher gasoline prices. (inflation)

With no new wells coming online, the future production will drop as wells dry up. Lower supply will drive prices up even more as time passes. (inflation)

And related, Biden restricted use of coal. A plentiful, low cost, energy resource within the USA. We all need electricity - even when it's cloudy or at night, or when the wind is not blowing. What do power plants use for generating power now? Oil and natural gas. That caused demand for oil and natural to go up substantially. That drove the USA into importing even more oil and natural gas. The spiral grows bigger. (inflation)

We see gasoline has gone from $1.90 to $2.92 (or more)
What you may not notice is diesel has more than doubled. Diesel moves trucks and trains. As a result, shipping costs have gone way up. That drives up the cost of everything we buy. (inflation)
Manufacturers also have to pay more to get the raw materials. That drives prices up again, this time at the source. (inflation)
Farmers costs for fuel for their tractors, buying seeds or feed, are all up too. Their costs for providing our food are way up, so that hits everybody. (inflation)

Having every step of the process to get goods into our homes suddenly become more expensive is a direct result of Biden's energy policy. That triggered the start of record inflation. What will stop inflation? Reversing the cause would be a great start.

The 3% inflation rate year-over-year (YOY) through June 2023 (i.e., July 2022 to June 2023) is welcome overall compared to recent higher inflation. But that’s not a complete picture. The devil is in the details.

The main drivers of the slowing trend according to USA government Bureau of Labor Statistics data include much lower YOY prices of energy (includes gasoline) down 17% and used car prices down 5%.

Other prices went up much more than the headline 3%. Year-over-year, food is up 6%, housing costs up 8%, and transportation costs up 8%.

This matters depending on what items a person buys. One who is not buying used cars and lots of gasoline but is buying food, renting a home, flying and cruising may be seeing YOY price increases over the headline inflation rate of 3%.

From the BLS Access Denied

Core inflation last month was 4.8% in June. Core inflation excludes food and energy prices. This was the lowest since October 2021.

Well said, and correct, but probably too much for some non-deep thinkers to grasp. To make it simple, folks should just remember that everything starts with, and hinges upon, the cost of energy. It wasn't that long ago, think 5 years, that our country was energy independent, and a net exporter of oil. Everyone benefited during those times.

But gasoline prices fell overall 27% from July 2022 through June 2023 according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. How do you explain that? The evil managers of capitalist oil companies decided to cut their profits to help society?

Access Denied

I guess we can all cherry pick an item to prove our point. For me, I am very happy that the price of eggs are back down to where they were & that the stock market is doing well.

And I do see that many prices are lower outside of The Villages. Free enterprise at work.

The inflation can be attributed directly to Uncle Joe, this economy is fossil fuel based, his green cronies and handlers had him destroy our energy independence by destroying the coal and oil business to force his green unworkable energy program.

According to this website, gasoline is cheaper now than it was in 1976.


Gas price inflation, 1935→2023

This is OBB economics and makes no sense to me

What goes up must come down

If they don't its price gouging, like the gas companies did last year.

Read all the previous replies correcting me, and my response acknowledging that I was incorrect. There's around 1.5 pages of this. I mean unless you just want to jump on the "OB Is Wrong" bandwagon, in which case - go ahead and get your rocks off.

The drop in inflation can be attributed to uncle Joe, it seems his Inflation Reduction Act is doing just that!

1. Your thumbnail didn't show up for me so no idea what it is.
2. I haven't ever seen PCE until this post so it'll take me a couple weeks to learn what it means, its significance, and what various "people who get paid to know this stuff" have to say about it.
3. I don't know what a Chain-Type index is.
4. I don't know what DPCERG is. Sounds like the model number of a sci-fi fantasy movie robot. "Oi Dipkerg, over here!" "Bleep bloop blip bleep."
5. I'm really not interested enough in finances to bother learning. Y'know, learning the same way real students learn about accounting and finances when they're in actual school taking actual classes. Not just googling a few websites.

I saw a thing about the inflation rate dropping significantly since last year, which was pretty bad last year. And now it's more in line with the "usual" rate of inflation, historically. Not quite there yet but pretty close. I expect inflation to always exist. When we have zero inflation, it's a happy surprise for a short time - but it invariably goes back up again. The fact that it's 3% instead of 9% is a great thing. People should be happy about that, and hopeful that we can continue the trend and get it closer to 0.

As for who can afford what (the true impact of inflation): I just got my first Social Security check 2 days ago. I can afford everything I want now. The past couple of years has required a somewhat tight budget - not frugal, but not easy-going either. And now, I can afford to set aside some savings for a new (used) car next year, without having to give up dinner and drinks out at the country club every couple of months.

Sorry but I can't believe any numbers the Government puts out If you like the jobs numbers check them in 2 weeks they always go way down with their adjustment.
If the inflation numbers are real we should see the result in 2 months after supplies in stock are replaced.

Last week we were at our home and had use of a car for the week. We noticed gas prices in the bubble ( The Villages) were .40 or more higher than gas stations outside our area. Hmmm
I was thinking, maybe these stations have a captured audience of many, many golf carts and the abundance of landscapers needing fuel for their equipment who don’t want to lose time driving further away to refuel?

Inflation
 

That’s not how inflation is calculated. If prices were up 9% last year and now are up 3%, that’s up more than 12% this year over 2 years ago. Elections have consequences.

The price of labor has went way up, and it affects everything, and it’s not coming down.

Could be. Maybe a landlord charges the station higher rent. Maybe the Local Option Tax on fuel differs. Maybe the station’s convenience store doesn’t make as much profit on beer, snacks, etc. so they make it up on gasoline. Maybe…

I suppose that if the gasoline stations in TV were making a ton of profit, we would see more gas stations. How many gas stations are south of the Turnpike?

If widgets were $9.00 last year, they are $9.27 now. Where in the world of math would you get $3.00?

I'll just re-post this every so often with an update on how many "pages of this" it's up to.

It appears that your original statement that Biden cancelled existing gas and oil leases isn't true.

Access Denied

If so, your conclusion that the oil companies lost billions on existing assets is wrong.

Can you tell me when he cancelled existing leases?

Then how do you explain that it was $1.87 before COVID hit?

What? Is this that "new math" I keep hearing about? If the annual inflation rate is 3% that widget is going to cost you $9 x 1.03 = $9.27, correct?

A timeline article that may be of interest:

Access Denied

I see a different story than you!
Nationwide, prices went up in June; no info yet for July, so where did you get this info that prices are down?

This Dumbass administration has to STOP SPENDING. NO administration has ever done as much damage to America as this one. Plain and simple ............

LOLOLOL Gas averages $3.50 in my NJ area! That's up 20 cents in a month!

Don’t feel bad. Even the “expert” financial reporter on NBC nightly news said last night that costs have gone down. Most of the audience they aim at just accept it. You are correct in that there is almost always a certain level of inflation each year. Otherwise we would still be paying 12 cents for a loaf of bread.

How can you say it is not true when the link you sent talks about when Biden was working on allowing additional land leases to happen on worthless land. The first line says: "The Biden administration is delaying decisions on new oil and gas leases"

Harvard Law School has a lot of information about Biden's actions to cancel and then block land leases for oil and natural gas wells. Simple legal facts without any political spin. Here is one example.

h-t-t-p-s://eelp.law.harvard.edu/2021/12/leasing-pause-and-review/
Federal Onshore and Offshore Oil and Gas Leasing Pause and Review - Harvard Law School

Fuel around where we live 466a is around $3.40 gal Circle K 3 miles north circle K is $2.96 along with BJ’s and Sam’s. Yes we’ll drive that far to save $.44 a gallon or almost $9.00 on a fill up.
Many businesses grocery stores, gas stations, restaurants are over charging. One example is Publix’s sales for the three months ended April 1, 2023 were $14.3 billion, an 8.2% increase from $13.2 billion in 2022. Comparable store sales for the three months ended April 1, 2023 increased 6.4%.

Gas prices show an 8% difference in 3 miles it’s called price gouging!

You might want to ask the moderator to close the thread.

Salaries and SS payments up too...you want them lowered?

Prices ALWAYS go up, just a matter of how much. In any case the slower the increase the better. Remember the Feds goal is to limit annual price increases to 2%.