Originally Posted by manaboutown (Post 2386402)

The Shiller CAPE has hit 38.18, more than double its mean (17.17) and median (16). That seems like a very scary high to me so I have for the most part moved to defensive holdings and the largest proportion of cash I have ever maintained

Shiller PE Ratio - Multpl

Originally Posted by jimjamuser (Post 2399766)

I think that we will have a recession by about June.

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 2393232)

from Jurrien Timmer, macro strategist at Fidelity:

from today on Twitter:
https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1867264853913522303

pasted words without charts

My sense is that we are in the 7th inning of a secular bull market which began in 2009. I know many technicians (including my esteemed colleagues) use a later start date (2013), and they may well be right. But I like my method in that it uses multiple approaches that yield the same conclusion.🧵

Per the chart below, I use the deviation from the 150-year trendline as the guide to start the clock. On that basis the current regime began in 2009 (and was confirmed in 2013), and the previous three started in 1982, 1949, and 1920. /2

This approach is further supported by the CAPE model, which also pegs the start in 2009. The CAPE model states that the 10-year trailing P/E ratio (or in the case below the 5-year price/cash ratio) is strongly predictive of the forward 10-year return (CAGR). The CAPE model bottomed in 2009 and peaked in 2019. /3

Finally, if we consider the slope of the market’s ascent off the secular low (top panel below), and add a 2nd derivative in the form of the 10-year CAGR (bottom panel), we see that a 2009 start date lines up nicely with both the 1982-2000 and 1949-1968 super-cycles. The market rockets higher in the first 10 years and then peaks in 2019 on a rate-of-change basis (but not level). From that point on, the market continues to advance, but a slowing rate of change. /4

When and how will this secular bull eventually end? My guess is either a reversal of the Mag 7 (leading to lower valuations), or higher inflation and interest rates (also leading to lower valuations). Valuation is the key to secular regimes. /END

Note: the 3 major valuation calculations are
* Price / Book
* Price / Next years earnings
* Equity Risk Premium : Next 5 years earnings growth' plus cash dividend plus buybacks, less the 10 year Treasury interest rate,

Current price to book is near all time highs
Current Price to Next year's earnings is near all time highs on huge CY25 growth
Equity Risk premium low to negative

So yes, we are nearer the end than to the beginning. .

good luck to us!

Originally Posted by Boomer (Post 2399842)

I tune in to CNBC once in a while. I am not one to obsess. I have noticed recently though that some of their reporters are starting to get that deer caught in the headlights look.

Boomer

Originally Posted by Boomer (Post 2399842)

I tune in to CNBC once in a while. I am not one to obsess. I have noticed recently though that some of their reporters are starting to get that deer caught in the headlights look.

Boomer

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 2399930)

Bloomberg is a much better alternative for market news.
CNBC has too much nepotism for me, and Kernan has to go!
He just talks his opinions over everyone else, including guests.
Bloomberg asks questions and lets the guest give their opinions,
plus each has to have a CFA to be on the show

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 2399930)

Bloomberg is a much better alternative for market news.
CNBC has too much nepotism for me, and Kernan has to go!
He just talks his opinions over everyone else, including guests.
Bloomberg asks questions and lets the guest give their opinions,
plus each has to have a CFA to be on the show

Originally Posted by Boomer (Post 2400034)

Thanks. I had never bothered to know the name of that arrogant windbag who is on in the morning on CNBC. When I read your post, I looked him up. Yep. It's Joe Kernen.

You are right. He needs to go. Joe Kernen not only talks too much, he is especially into talking over top of women. He was so incredibly rude to a woman who was a guest one day recently that I composed a complaint to CNBC -- but like a lot of those things I compose in my head, it remains there. He interrupted her constantly and just kept on blathering his opinions. He is old enough to remember that 70s term "Male Chauvinist Pig" and whether he realizes it or not, he comes across as a perfect example of one when he is sharing the screen with a smart woman. Maybe that's his schtick. I am sure it flies just fine with like-minded dinosaurs in the viewing audience.

Joe Kernen is the reason I turn CNBC OFF when he is on. . .

Anyway, thanks for the Bloomberg suggestion. I will see if I can find it.

Boomer

Originally Posted by Boomer (Post 2400034)

Thanks. I had never bothered to know the name of that arrogant windbag who is on in the morning on CNBC. When I read your post, I looked him up. Yep. It's Joe Kernen.

You are right. He needs to go. Joe Kernen not only talks too much, he is especially into talking over top of women. He was so incredibly rude to a woman who was a guest one day recently that I composed a complaint to CNBC -- but like a lot of those things I compose in my head, it remains there. He interrupted her constantly and just kept on blathering his opinions. He is old enough to remember that 70s term "Male Chauvinist Pig" and whether he realizes it or not, he comes across as a perfect example of one when he is sharing the screen with a smart woman. Maybe that's his schtick. I am sure it flies just fine with like-minded dinosaurs in the viewing audience.

Joe Kernen is the reason I turn CNBC OFF when he is on. . .

Anyway, thanks for the Bloomberg suggestion. I will see if I can find it.

Boomer

Originally Posted by Caymus (Post 2400104)

Kernen is one of the few reasons to watch it. I turn it off when Sorkin is on without a counterbalance.

Originally Posted by Boomer (Post 2400034)

Thanks. I had never bothered to know the name of that arrogant windbag who is on in the morning on CNBC. When I read your post, I looked him up. Yep. It's Joe Kernen.....
Boomer

Originally Posted by ithos (Post 2400369)

My biggest issue was his non stop shilling for Bitcoin. Yes it has taken off after Trump committed to spending taxpay money for some "Strategic Reserve" but many who took his advice were wiped out when it went from 64k to 14k. And he ignored that fact that 90% of transactions are in Tether, a fraudulent stablecoin that has never been audited and also that the only real use case for BTC was for facilitating illicit activity.

There really shouldn't be any editorializing on a business program unless both sides are presented. But there is (or used to be) and he does help balance it out. I like his cynical sense of humor but must admit he lacks the eloquence of the other hosts on CNBC.

Originally Posted by Boomer (Post 2400371)

I'm baaaaack. Yes, I know what you mean. Now that I have looked up his pedigree, I have to think he has fallen into what is basically schtick. He knows where his appeal lies and has chosen to join the circus.

I don't like Cramer either. He affects me like fingernails on a blackboard. He’s another loudmouth ego boy, so I don't hang around when he comes on. I just don't like clowns in general. Maybe I have coulrophobia, but I don' think it's that. I just know one when I see one.

Conseulo Mack on PBS WealthTrack is more my style. She interviews some big deal people from the world of finance each week and lets them talk and then ends the show with a question asking for a word of advice for now. Her shows can be found at wealthtrack.com, most recent title was "Fears of a Great Investor" with some guy from T. Rowe Price. Before that were two parts with Jason Zweig. She has Christine Benz on from time to time. In the half hour show, you can pick up information without the clown effect.

Boomer