Talk of The Villages Florida - Anyone else preparing for a big selloff?

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- - Anyone else preparing for a big selloff? (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/investment-talk-158/anyone-else-preparing-big-selloff-354511/)

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Originally Posted by Stu from NYC (Post 2422108)

Will you remember what to do if you catch her?

Catch her? I never even thought about that :)

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Originally Posted by Babubhat (Post 2426166)

So why are people not firing their financial advisors? Their job is to make you money every day. No excuses. They are too much like overpaid, underproducing players

Most of them probably just throw your money into SPY and QQQ and then go golfing for the rest of the year :)

Great job if you can get it.

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Originally Posted by Babubhat (Post 2426166)

So why are people not firing their financial advisors? Their job is to make you money every day. No excuses. They are too much like overpaid, underproducing players

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Originally Posted by Rainger99 (Post 2426246)

I’m not defending financial advisors and I don’t use one, but their job isn’t picking individual companies to invest in. That’s what portfolio managers of actively managed funds, that attempt to beat their market benchmark, do (not index funds). A Financial Advisors job is to evaluate their clients goals and constraints and recommend the appropriate asset allocation and best investment vehicles to achieve that mix of investments.

I tried timing the market without success. Unless your are on top of it 24/7/365 I doubt i would be able to make the call in time to catch the swing.

For the past 40 years I employed DCA, diversification both by sectors, products and split between Debt/Equity. Not very exciting, however steady performance over the decades and consistent with my risk tolerance and time horizon.

During the current decumulation phase I am employing a ‘flooring’ approach which funds fixed recurring expenses using ‘entitlements’ (SS, annuities, pensions) based on my individual risk capacity. I then look to portfolio for discretionary spending with some consideration given to market performance. In this way I am able to manage sequence of returns and market risk to achieve overall goals.

For most of the accumulation phase I was a self directed investor. However, I now employ a leading fee only professional firm to handle the day-to-day investment oversight with only periodic check-ins.

I don’t see any way to offer credible recommendations without a full understanding of that individuals risk tolerance, time horizon, risk capacity, individual resilience and goals are, so blogs are simply for general information and entertainment.

The comments above are simply my personal observations not recommendations or financial advice. When making important financial decisions consult legal, tax and other professionals.

Don't know if it means anything. Warren Buffett’s favorite valuation indicator flashes buy signal

Shiller PE ratio closed at 34.72 on 5/1/25..

As of today, the S&P is on its longest winning streak in 20 years. I wonder if people are still "jumping out of windows"?:jester:

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Originally Posted by manaboutown (Post 2428928)

Don't know if it means anything. Warren Buffett’s favorite valuation indicator flashes buy signal

Shiller PE ratio closed at 34.72 on 5/1/25..

It use to be a 34 would be a panic sell signal for some.

:censored:

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Originally Posted by goneil2024 (Post 2426285)

I tried timing the market without success. Unless your are on top of it 24/7/365 I doubt i would be able to make the call in time to catch the swing.

Don’t feel bad. There isn’t anyone who can consistently time the market, even if you follow it 24/7. Markets can be over or under priced for years. Timing the market is a losing strategy.

Ok so now that I bought some low, thinking about selling some high. Then rinse and repeat.

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Originally Posted by bopat (Post 2431168)

Ok so now that I bought some low, thinking about selling some high. Then rinse and repeat.

I don't think this is high yet.

I think I'll just sit tight from here on out, I'm out of cash anyhow. I feel good about this year's gain, I got all my spare cash in about about a month ago and it's looking pretty good now.

Just let it average 8 or 10 percent a year and spend the gains on good whiskey and fun cars.

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Originally Posted by LeRoySmith (Post 2431184)

What about fast women?:posting:

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Originally Posted by Rainger99 (Post 2426246)

How many people have financial advisors? The ones that take a % of your money?

The ones who they do better when you do better and they do much better when you lose money?

Are they giving you any helpful advice? If they knew what they were doing, they should have been buying the following stocks. Guy

Comments after part quote: If everyone bought the same hot stocks their prices would rise very high, higher than their real value. It is supply and demand. If everyone buys the same hot stocks their price rises. Of course, many people do that now, but could you imagine what would happen if Vanguard and Fidelity piled their billions in their portfolios into a few hot stocks? Anyway what ever happened to that big selloff this thread was talking about? I am retired now and I am happy with a conservative portfolio that grows nicely each year and even with yearly RMD’s taken out the total amount continues to grow larger each year. I remember 2008 when I stayed up nights selling all my growth funds and putting it all into the Pimco bond funds. Then two weeks later I reversed that and bought back into stocks. This went back and forth for months. I remember losing sleep and getting up at 3AM and making major changes in my portfolio. I am surprised Fidelity never stopped me. Luckily as a former economics major in college I was smart enough to finally put the money back into stock funds. I think I maybe made or lost less than 1% than if I had done nothing. I had a friend who panicked with his mothers inheritance and pulled all his money out of stocks and never bought back in. He lost 50% of his portfolio. He still will not own stocks.

1. CVS Health (CVS): Up 49.9% YTD, making it the top performer in the S&P 500.

2. H&E Equipment Services (HEES): Up 93.6% YTD.

3. IHS Holding (IHS): Up 78.7% YTD.

4. Philip Morris International (PM): Up 31.9% in Q1 2025.

Chasing hot stocks is a job for people who love stress and excitement. I am retired. I want to sleep at night.

Part of my comments appeared inside the quote. I messed up. That is why I gave up day trading!

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Originally Posted by Stu from NYC (Post 2431196)

What about fast women?:posting:

Fast women cost me 50%, I think I'll steer clear of that....