Predictions are flowing in...............

BMO Capital set next year’s S&P 500 target at 6,700, or a 14% gain from here. UBS sees S&P rising to 6,400 in 2025, about 9% from here. Goldman’s 2025 stock market forecast calls for the S&P 500 to gain 11%. Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) Investment Institute has raised its year-end 2025 target for the S&P 500 index to 6500-6700, reflecting expectations for stronger economic growth and supportive policy changes.

Earnings growth is expected to go up entering into 2025 with first two quarters likely to produce 11.2% and 12.5% growth rate, respectively, on 5% higher revenues each quarter. Also, note that on a calendar-year basis, the 7.9% expected earnings growth this year (2024) will be followed by double-digit gains in 2025 and 2026.

SELL!!!!...................oh wait, maybe not.

:popcorn:

:bigbow:

My cup is 1/2 full.

As the Dow reached an all-time high (yes I know it is the most manipulated index).

Maybe it will sell off next week or next month or next year or next decade. Whenever it does some people (or model) will claim they predicted it.

^ I agree with this. I also believe (with zero evidence whatsoever) that there isn't so much as a pound of gold in Ft Knox. I don't believe our currency is supported in that manner at all.

We will no longer need an archaic asset like gold to support the value of our currency once the government accumulates enough BTC.

Well, I am not selling. It was fun to watch the valuation of the equity portion of my portfolio increase last week. Predictions of market movement have little value. Many are given by those in the financial industry set to profit from them. Anything can happen at any time. As Charlie Munger advised, never interrupt the compounding unnecessarily.

"so I have for the most part moved to defensive holdings and the largest proportion of cash I have ever maintained"

Sounds like you already sold.

Nope, at least not securities. I sold some multi partnered commercial real estate in 2022 and 2023 priced at historically low cap rates which provided me with a significant amount of cash. Some I put into equities but most of it I retained as cash in T-bills, money market funds and such which have brought in almost 5% interest. I have sold only a few small positions in securities. However, most of my equities are on the defensive side as I am 82 years of age. I did take a flyer on NVDA at $153 on the old shares before they split 10 for one. Just got lucky on that. My largest equity position remains in BRK which I bought back in the 1980s and just left alone. BRK has well over $300B in cash last I checked. I am not a trader but I do adjust my holdings on occasion so over the years I have gradually moved into more defensive stocks although I enjoy having a few trendy stocks to see what happens to them.

Don't look 82.

Lol, archaic. You mean archaic because it has been the ultimate standard since nearly the dawn of human currency, bartering, and trade? Archaic because it has been here long before you, and will continue to be valued for millenia after we all fade away?

However Bitcoin (BTC) is brand spanking new, backed by nothing, made up by an anonymous person, totally ephemeral, and may as well be called Vapor Coin, because that is all it is. Vapor.

Yeah - You put your money in that, and I'll stick with gold. Ya know, I'll keep that archaic stuff that's been proven for more centuries than years you've been alive.

I was being sarcastic because there actually are prominent corporate executives who advocate that nonsense.
Why Bitcoin? Michael Saylor breaks down BTC’s edge over gold, stocks! - AMBCrypto

They both the same, except one can be made into jewelry. They are both backed by a belief system, nothing more. Gold just has a longer history of a belief system than bitcoin.

I think your reasoning is overly simplistic. Gold has several unique tangible values and properties that are not present in most other metals. Yes the attraction due to its visual properties may be called superficial. However, the quantity of metals that are malleable, visually pleasing and which do not tarnish or corrode are very limited. This made it a perfect candidate for currency in the days before reserve banks and electricity.

Unlike Bitcoin, Gold is not virtual can not be replicated. Bitcoin only makes up 50% of the total market cap of crypto. But now that the new administration has decided to spend tax payers money to acquire it as a reserve, that percentage will go significantly higher. However, another administration could be elected and decide to sell it, in which case the price would collapse. This would not be the case of with gold.

I'm sitting on it all & just watching. the market goes up & down with these events in between. i did consider buying more since the prices were lower, but I'm super cautious about these things-i'm sitting it out :popcorn:

Based on the campaign messages of the new administration, the global warming agenda will probably be thrown out the window.

There will obviously be losers and winners. Does anyone have opinions on which publicly traded companies will be affected the most?

:shrug:

Nope, your history just proved a belief system of value, 90% of which was in the agrarian age without anything from the industrial nor technology age. Because of its color and easily malleability, people believed it was valuable. Silver has very similar properties in the agrarian age, but was never given any such valuation by humans as a collective. color maybe? especially in the agrarian age where lighting was fire or solar only

There was a short lived belief system in tulips as well. What back it? just a belief system in being wealthy

So the belief from an old, completely different age, which people today can't relate, continues, and is being challenged in a completely different age by a new belief.

BTC is now a new belief system in something of value from a different age, the technological age. One can buy and sell gold with a belief system in technology and storage. Luddites I think that one of the Bills call those don't believe in any change, like some religions.

Still the same with bitcoin. . you can buy and sell it with a belief in technology system.

You as a human, judge and value everything from your individual belief system. No different, especially when the concept of wealth is conceptually linked with monetary amounts.

The equity part of my portfolio is growing measurably and I am enjoying the ride but keeping my seatbelt fastened. The Shiller CAPE hit 38.20 today. The cash portion is paying between 4% and 5%. I am sleeping very well these days.

Just curious, but at your age why are you still so heavily invested in equities? If I make it to your age, I would probably be 60 to 70% cash/equivalents. Maybe I would trade a little "for entertainment".

If you have been a buy and hold investor for the past 45 years, selling your stocks now will cost a huge amount in capital gains taxes. And, for about 10 years, cash paid almost nothing in interest.

Oh I do trade for entertainment and lucked into NVDA. A few days ago I checked and my cash position is now down to 35% of my stock/bond/T-bill/money market portfolio due to the remarkably ascending market in equities (thank you NVDA!). 75% of my invested assets remain in real estate, most of which generates rental income. I keep enough cash on hand to see me (frugally) through several years if necessary. I use a "sleep at night" test. In 2022 I started taking a serious interest in the stock market as I had to sell a large property, then another in 2023. Before that my stock market holding were frankly inconsequential in the whole scope of things.

True that! And, drum roll, welcome to IRMAA, NIIT and AMT.

Market will get stronger yet
 

One would be crazy to sell anytime soon with the current forecasts getting much brighter for the market.

Ahhh. I couldn't see your tongue-in-cheek from the keyboard. Gold, despite being shiny and rare, is also a space-aged conductor. Another valuable use for it.

There is a lot of cash flowing into USA equities from Europe since the place is being rapidly destroyed.

How much gold dust do you need to scape off your bar in order to purchase a Jersey Mike sub? Bitcoin is indestructible and divisible digital capital with no counterparty and is limited to 21M coins. It literally is perfect money...The FIRST perfect money. It cannot be stolen or counterfeited.

This is a presentation from "Bitcoin Bank" MSTR. Watch it multiple times to comprehend.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4LqpGrWGNqE

You make a compelling argument. Therefore I believe the US Government should sell all of its gold and use the proceeds to purchase Bitcoin. This will save the taxpayer so much money by eliminating the tremendous cost of storing and protecting our Gold stockpiles.

Now that the US government will start purchasing BTC, it will cause the price to jump assuming it can get Congressional approval.
There are several securities to invest in BTC without having to mess with those pesky keys and passwords and risk losing it all.

The symbols are YBIT, BITO, GBTC, IBIT, HODL AND BTC. Robinhood is by far the best platform for trading crypto. Some are derivatives so read the prospectus.

It has been a very good year. Don't forget to rebalance your portfolio.

Holy smokes! Wells Fargo issues Wall Street's most bullish forecast yet for the stock market in 2025

Well, my cash position has shrunk to less than 35% due to the rising market and I am mostly in conservative stocks. The hi-tech equities and ETFs in my portfolio such as NVDA and VGT have jumped as have some conservative securities such as C, WMT, ET, MPLX and PAA.

Another set of opinions.................
The fourth-quarter AICPA & CIMA Economic Outlook Survey reveals that business leaders have shown an increase in optimism regarding the US economy following the recent presidential election.

The survey, which targeted CEOs, CFOs, controllers, and other senior accounting roles, revealed a shift in sentiment.

Two-thirds of business executives expressed optimism about the economy's prospects over the next year, marking a 41% point increase from the previous quarter.

This is claimed to the highest level of optimism recorded since early 2020, when it was at 74% before declining due to pandemic-related disruptions.

The outlook on the global economy also improved, with optimism rising from 19% to 41% quarter over quarter.

Inflation has emerged as the top concern for businesses, while domestic political leadership, previously a significant worry, has fallen out of the top ten concerns.

Revenue growth expectations have more than doubled to 3.3%, while profit projections increased to 2.2% from 0.2% last quarter.

Optimism about individual organisations also rose, with 53% of executives expressing a positive outlook, up from 41%.

Additionally, 57% of respondents anticipate business expansion in the next year, compared to 44% previously.

The percentage of executives reporting insufficient staffing increased from 29% to 38%, with one in five ready to hire immediately.

:mmmm:

Continue to be 100% in the market.

Drive, Drive, Drive.

:icon_hungry:

Nothing improves sentiment faster than higher prices.

GOOG, META, AMZN, APPLE held up well today. GOOG had big news about a super chip they have designed. Are there any naysayers?

Why Alphabet Stock Is Jumping Today

Good to see as I have some Alphabet. HSY which I have owned a little of for many years took a nice little jump yesterday, too. Yum, yum!

Go for it! Shooting craps never interested me.

It does amaze me that the number of people who live in The Villages can't make ends meet without being in the oversold pyramid scheme at this age. Oops, that should read stock market...

US Household Wealth Climbs to a Record on Higher Stock Values

While... marketwatch.com

from Jurrien Timmer, macro strategist at Fidelity:

from today on Twitter:
https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1867264853913522303

pasted words without charts

My sense is that we are in the 7th inning of a secular bull market which began in 2009. I know many technicians (including my esteemed colleagues) use a later start date (2013), and they may well be right. But I like my method in that it uses multiple approaches that yield the same conclusion.🧵

Per the chart below, I use the deviation from the 150-year trendline as the guide to start the clock. On that basis the current regime began in 2009 (and was confirmed in 2013), and the previous three started in 1982, 1949, and 1920. /2

This approach is further supported by the CAPE model, which also pegs the start in 2009. The CAPE model states that the 10-year trailing P/E ratio (or in the case below the 5-year price/cash ratio) is strongly predictive of the forward 10-year return (CAGR). The CAPE model bottomed in 2009 and peaked in 2019. /3

Finally, if we consider the slope of the market’s ascent off the secular low (top panel below), and add a 2nd derivative in the form of the 10-year CAGR (bottom panel), we see that a 2009 start date lines up nicely with both the 1982-2000 and 1949-1968 super-cycles. The market rockets higher in the first 10 years and then peaks in 2019 on a rate-of-change basis (but not level). From that point on, the market continues to advance, but a slowing rate of change. /4

When and how will this secular bull eventually end? My guess is either a reversal of the Mag 7 (leading to lower valuations), or higher inflation and interest rates (also leading to lower valuations). Valuation is the key to secular regimes. /END

Note: the 3 major valuation calculations are
* Price / Book
* Price / Next years earnings
* Equity Risk Premium : Next 5 years earnings growth' plus cash dividend plus buybacks, less the 10 year Treasury interest rate,

Current price to book is near all time highs
Current Price to Next year's earnings is near all time highs on huge CY25 growth
Equity Risk premium low to negative

So yes, we are nearer the end than to the beginning. .

good luck to us!

NVIDIA can't produce enough blackwell GPUs to meet demand so the AI hyper scalers are starting to design and procure alternatives from other companies like Broadcom which jumped 25% the last two sessions.

Josh Brown who makes frequent appearances on CNBC breaks it down and talks about the other companies that are picking up the slack. NVIDIA was considered the sole source but no more as the stock starts to stall out.
Is Nvidia Under Siege in 2025? | WAYT?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--l_QgqxRNA

edit:
This was Josh Brown on NVIDIA three years ago.
Josh Brown really does believe Nvidia could hit $1 trillion market cap this decade
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=po2Tfie2R-0&t=15s