Caymus, your response does not surprise me, but c'mon, he should not be talking over top of people. He can be particularly obnoxious about doing that to women. You might find it ironic to know that the only one I have seen to be equally obnoxious and as enthralled with the sound of his own voice is Scarborough. I do not tune in to too much tv alleged news, so I am sure I could find more of that type. I don't think those two huge egos know how to read a room. Delivery of an opinion matters and can lend credibility. But they do not seem to get that. Oh well, their boorish style obviously works for enough of the people enough of the time.

It looks like Kernen is no slouch when it comes to raw brain power. He started as a scientist. His undergrad is in Molecular, Cellular, and Developmental Biology and he holds a master's degree from MIT and was involved in cancer research. I can respect that ability, but what I have no respect for is his lack of just plain manners, and from what I have seen, his condescending, disrespectful attitude toward some women. The guy comes off like a big blowhard. Not sure how he made the leap from serious science into what he is doing now, but I guess it pays a helluva lot more and he can do the math.

Anyway, I seem to have too much time on my hands today and here I find myself typing away about how obnoxious I find Kernen to be. I just flip it on in the morning to hear a little business news not to see his big head -- and mouth. But all I have to do is turn him off.

Boomer

My biggest issue was his non stop shilling for Bitcoin. Yes it has taken off after Trump committed to spending taxpay money for some "Strategic Reserve" but many who took his advice were wiped out when it went from 64k to 14k. And he ignored that fact that 90% of transactions are in Tether, a fraudulent stablecoin that has never been audited and also that the only real use case for BTC was for facilitating illicit activity.

There really shouldn't be any editorializing on a business program unless both sides are presented. But there is (or used to be) and he does help balance it out. I like his cynical sense of humor but must admit he lacks the eloquence of the other hosts on CNBC.

I'm baaaaack. Yes, I know what you mean. Shilling for Bitcoin is pathetic. Actually, Bitcoin gives me the creeps, always has — and getting even creepier by the day.

Now that I have looked up Kernen’s pedigree, I have to think he has fallen into what is basically schtick. He knows where his appeal lies and has chosen to join the circus.

I don't like Cramer either. He affects me like fingernails on a blackboard. He’s another loudmouth ego boy, so I don't hang around when he comes on. I just don't like clowns in general. Maybe I have coulrophobia, but I don't think it's that. I just know one when I see one.

Conseulo Mack on PBS WealthTrack is more my style. She interviews some big deal people from the world of finance each week and lets them talk and then ends the show with a question asking for a word of advice for now. Her shows can be found at wealthtrack.com, most recent title was "Fears of a Great Investor" with some guy from T. Rowe Price. Before that were two parts with Jason Zweig. She has Christine Benz on from time to time. In the half hour show, you can pick up information without the clown effect.

Boomer

On Cramer I couldn't agree more. I don't know why CNBC keeps him around. Apparently he alot of neophytes find his schtick appealing. But back in 1999 I liked him and was a subscriber to TheStreet.com. He wasn't as obnoxious and rambling as he is today. I also have some fond memories when I made 6k in a day by flipping the IPO shares allotted to me in their lottery.

Conseulo Mack was very professional and pleasant to listen to. My favorites on CNBC now are The Judge(Scott Wapner) and Josh Brown.

Uh, oh, I just turned on CNBC. Looks like we are having a Blood, Bath, and Beyond Day.

Boomer

December jobs reports has Wall Street starting to talk about rate hikes in 2025

The 10 year treasury interest rate also hit a high from a a long period of time, and inflation is showing signs of stickiness, making the fed's focus on the labor market, which has been leveling off, more risky for the bond vigilantes. So the spread widening between that and the 3mo/1yr rate is the term premium rising. Search on term premium rising

Yellen has been funding the government deficit with short term notes, and the new admin is expected to move the funding out to longer duration, increasing longer term interest rates and bond holders are getting out ahead of the expected issuances. . so treasury bond holders are losing and markets are losing. . .

in bull markets you buy on the rumor, and sell on the news
in bear markets you sell on the rumor, and buy on the news

Watch TLT and IEF . .

if the past market cycles work, the current sell off bottom is around 5575 +/- 10/20 points on the SP500. . . depending of course on the tariff scenario. . only 4% from here. . 5% or so from the last high, pretty standard bull market correction . . . assuming a bull market. .

good luck out there
we all need it. .

Short-term emotional response.

Wait a week, new news, new emotion.

Feels like ToTV has talking heads just like cable news.

:thumbup:

And. . .looks like you’re in here with us. Kind of fun, isn’t it? Welcome. :)


Btw, we are pretty much all old enough to have seen decades of the market — and we also have sense enough to know we are just into the conversation when the topic shows up on TOTV.

It’s all conversation. That’s it.

Boomer

FEARS OF A GREAT INVESTOR

Great investor David Giroux has cut way back on stocks and increased bonds in his top performing T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Fund. He explains why stock prices are scary and bonds look better than most stocks in 2025.

From: FEARS OF A GREAT INVESTOR – WealthTrack

:loco:

There are securities for hedging and bear markets too:

SQQQ ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ
UVIX 2x Long VIX Futures ETF
QID ProShares UltraShort QQQ
SPXU ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500
and more

Inverse/Short ETF List
Just a moment...

But I doubt anyone will be tempted.

Yes, Joe Kernan is pretty full of himself. Jim Cramer made me want to strangle myself and he was not even good at picking stocks. I could more relate to Guy Adami.

I always turn the channel when Jim Cramer is on.

With respect to "tax rate adjustments", the one that i would be interested in is where the upper 1% have to pay income taxes at a 90% rate. I am NOT holding my breath.

When did they ever pay that rate? Oh, that's right... Never...

Stock market today: Nasdaq, S&P 500 sink amid cratered hopes for 2025 rate cuts

S&P 500 hit an all-time high midday. The sell off will have to wait for another day or week or month;)

Seems like even the Bear-boys have pushed the sell-off off to 2026.

:sigh:

Nvidia passes Apple again to become world’s most valuable company
Access Denied

Tim Cook needs to get on the ball. AI is king in this market.

Cuts aren’t happening
 

The inflation rate was 2.9 percent last month. There isn’t a chance rates will be cut. That said, the market can and does move without Fed action.

"One of Berkshire Hathaway chairman Warren Buffett’s favorite market metrics is flashing a warning sign.

The Buffett Indicator, which calculates the ratio of market cap of all U.S. publicly traded stocks to the country’s gross domestic product, is at the highest level in several decades, according to research from Kailash Capital Research. As of November 2024, the figure reached 230%, the highest on record, according to Kailash’s data. That type of market dynamic hasn’t been seen since March 2000 around the time the dot-com bubble burst. Back then, the market-to-GDP ratio had reached a record level of 175%."

From: The stock market gauge named after Warren Buffett just hit an all-time high, sending a warning worse than before the dot-com bubble burst

I try to NOT be on the wrong side of Mr. Buffet's advice.

Not after today's AI meltdown. Apple was up. If the Chinese are being honest, Apple may have access to much less expensive technology.

You are correct. I did not expect the Chinese to announce a revolutionary new AI model which requires far less power and hardware. But based on the sell off I wasn't the only one.

Apple was lucky or Tim Cook had some good inside information. Either way it should be great news for Apple if all the hype turns out to be valid.

TAX REALITY. The TAXMAN DROOLITH over YOUR MONEY. If, you go into cash, You not only pay capital gains, might be payin the lower longterm rate on the gains. As CASH the interest is taxed at the higher short term rate.

I'm not a tax advisor. Must be done properly. If, you have a retirement plan-IRA and are dealing with RMD, forced withdrawals, you can give all you are forced to withdraw or some of it to a 5013c charity and you pay no tax on what you donate.

SOMEONE pays for all that stuff when people think, the government should pay for it. Government for the people, by the people etc. The people is WE.

:mademyday:
back to within 3 points of the all time high close. .

Q4 earnings are positive overall, with the SP500 up over 10% year over year.
Interest rates are holding fairly steady, wiggling up and down. . .
January economic numbers reported in February are always a bit erratic, as there are annual restatements and have funky seasonal adjustments, making February all in all a bit more volatile and not very directional.

Valuations are high, but its a positive seasonal time of year.
AAII bullish sentiment has fallen fairly quickly, indicating fear of loss has overtaken the joy of gains. however, that's mostly a contrary indicator, so good for the moment.

Since January, we have had a political regime change, and its a bit early to figure out the market impact, and likely people won't have a good handle on it until the first quarter earnings which will reflect any tariff and operational impacts. .

So, holding current long positions is the best course until the future becomes less uncertain. It will never be certain, but the future can become less uncertain.

good luck, we need it. .

short term machine learning is forecasting some higher highs on the SP500 over the next two weeks. . then :shrug:

Looks like will finally find out if tariffs are as evil as we were taught in school growing up right before most of factories and steel mills were shut down.

The Day the U.S. TV Industry Died - IEEE Spectrum.

S&P up almost 3% since this thread started.


:icon_hungry:

Will the sell off continue Monday?

Not much of a sell-off...............average volumes.

:icon_bored:

It wasn't boring Friday.

Was wondering if the threat of 25% tariffs could be a factor. if they are implemented I hope they are phased in.

Preparing for a big selloff?

I'm sensing an above average chance of a correction coming up.

What's the average investor to do?

As Dorothy Parker said each time her doorbell or phone rang, “What fresh hell is this?”

I quote Dorothy on a regular basis these days as we are now in seriously uncharted waters, getting farther from the shore.

I am a buy and holder of stocks but also have been parking cash in a government money market fund and have been glad to see some sideline interest on that. (Yes. I know it is taxed differently from cap gains and dividends, but even so, a little return on cash has been better than nothing.)

But I gotta tellya, I now am beginning to have concerns because I do not want to look in someday to check accounts and find my MM account with its treasuries, etc., has been magically turned into Bitcoin or its ilk…….

Hyperbole? Maybe. Maybe not.

Those of us who were little kids in the days of the original “Mickey Mouse Club” on television should remember how each day of the week had a different theme. Well, my fellow boomers, every day is now “Anything Can Happen Day.”

Boomer

One of the key indicators of the current mania, is Microsoft's CEO pulling back on future CAPEX developing AGI, (Artificial General Intelligence) and cancelling some future data center contracts.

So just a warning about the frothiness of the current market at ATHs.

Just a seasonality warning:
https://x.com/WayneWhaley1136/status...18664772182070

A NEGATIVE FIRST THREE WEEKS OF FEBRUARY

The "First 3 Weeks of February" were down 0.45%. Since 1950, if the First 3 Weeks of February were negative, the following year (Feb21-Feb21) was a very normal 21-12 for an avg gain of 6.21%. But there is an interesting story behind those statistics.

In search of Bear Market Warning signals, I once requested of my computer that he scan every time span in search of those that had a statistically significant track record of forecasting a double digit down following year. It provided me with a handful worth following, one of which was the occurrence of a "Negative First 3 Weeks of February".

It turns out that all eight of the S&P, post 1950, double digit down, Feb21-Feb21 years were preceded by a Negative First 3 Weeks of February. Note, that a "Negative 1st 3 Weeks of Feb", preceded most of the three 50% Bear Markets of my lifetime, 1973-74, 2000-02 & 2008.

Billy Bull points out that in 12 of those 33, 'Negative First 3 Weeks of Feb' cases, the following year was double digit positive. So, if you are of a bullish persuasion, feel free to blow this study off as simply an aberrational product of an overly, ambitious, data mining exercise.

But if you are of the opinion that conditions are in place to give the S&P some problems in the next 12 months, the fact that all eight of the prior, post 1950, double digit down, Feb21-Feb21, years were each preceded by a "Negative First 3 Weeks of February", might give you additional reason to pause.

One of a dozen Toy (Turn Of the Year) Stories shared with my commentary subscribers this year,
waynewhaley.witterlester@gmail.com

Can anyone recall a similar monetary and political situation in our lives? The stuff going on currently is certainly uncharted, if the waste is real and can be stopped I'd expect another big jump in the market v over the next 6-9 months. I'm staying put but also hording up 3 or 400k in cash so I can buy when it corrects.

To answer your question, of course, nobody can recall a similar monetary situation in our lives. There is nothing thoughtfully surgical about the cuts. It's random hacking and slashing.

Hoarded cash? Where? I just read an article that I found chilling. Sounds like the FDIC is under siege. Then what? Nowhere to run. Nowhere to hide.

Boomer

Well, I am waiting to see if all of the gold supposed to be stored in Ft. Knox is actually physically there. If it is I will continue to sleep well. Meanwhile I am not keeping all my eggs in one basket and my current source of them secret.

Vanguard cash Plus account. I'm not concerned about the random slashing and hacking, in fact I think it needs done.

To much waste needed to be more efficient