And this was before the 2nd bad day 4/4. My very conservative stock broker
plainly stated that this drop had nothing to do with the market.

Hope so, but doubt it

If only that was true...

Many people think that most rich people do not pay their fair share in taxes. They ignore that they generally invest in businesses supplying jobs to the rest of us.

The fact that the govt manages to spend inefficiently does not seem to matter

Bewildering
 

It is bewildering to hear people who pay almost nothing in taxes or may even get returns, telling the rest of us to pay more in taxes. Hearing neighbors speak of their returns and how they are going on a cruise kind of seems off when your standing right next to them knowing you have to write a big check to your tax attorney guy.

"In 2021, taxpayers filed 153.6 million tax returns, reported earning more than $14.7 trillion in adjusted gross income (AGI), and paid nearly $2.2 trillion in individual income taxes.
The average income tax rate in 2021 was 14.9 percent. The top 1 percent of taxpayers paid a 25.9 percent average rate, nearly eight times higher than the 3.3 percent average rate paid by the bottom half of taxpayers.
The top 1 percent’s income share rose from 22.2 percent in 2020 to 26.3 percent in 2021 and its share of federal income taxes paid rose from 42.3 percent to 45.8 percent.
The top 50 percent of all taxpayers paid 97.7 percent of all federal individual income taxes, while the bottom 50 percent paid the remaining 2.3 percent.
The 2021 figures include pandemic-related tax items from the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA), such as the non-refundable part of the third round of Recovery Rebates and the expanded child tax credit (CTC) and earned income tax credit (EITC).
Capital gains realizations exceeded $2 trillion to reach a 40-year high, driving income growth and taxes paid for high-income groups."

From: Who Pays Federal Income Taxes? Latest Federal Income Tax Data

Right there is the problem, and it's not just on this topic. Ignorance and media gaslighting are hard to fix.


That's also pretty universal, on every topic, but unfortunately, it really does matter.

:wave:

Looking back, can not find a time when the market has not come back from a dip.

:popcorn::popcorn:

Best time for Roth conversions, right now.

Not sure I agree with that statement.

The amount of taxes paid on any conversion is dependent upon your incremental tax bracket. So whether the market is up or down doesn't change that incremental tax bracket.

The potential for tax free social security in the future means than the current incremental tax bracket will start lower for any Roth conversions, so waiting for any changes in the current tax rates will help make the conversion cheaper.

The incremental tax rate determines the payback period, or the time to recoup the taxes paid to get back to same level of wealth as prior to the conversion. The required minimum IRA balance for anyone / everyone is their spending lifestyle requirements. So everyone's individual situation tax and IRA balance should determine the best time to make any conversions.

Finally, the assumption that the markets always go up LONG TERM appears historically true. However, there's not any guarantee, and in retirement or prior to retirement, with an average life expectancy is 78, or 11 years, there is no longer a long term recovery period. There is no guarantee that the market won't continue down, there is no guarantee that after going down, the market will return to anything close to growth of the recent years. And there is no guarantee that any medical procedures will be covered with insurance, and so IRA withdrawals to cover can currently be made tax free or a low tax rate.

Likewise, there is no guarantee that you will be paying taxes on your IRA distributions. My mom's IRA distributions were all tax free for the last 3 years, and would continue to be if she had more, at age 98. Likewise there is no guarantee that Roth IRA distributions will continue to be tax free. What the Congress can give, the Congress can take away. . Congress will more likely be revoke ROTH tax free status if the ROTH becomes a status symbols of the rich, and there is a huge need to more tax dollars, because the treasury can't finance the spending through treasury bonds. .

The only reason that statements like this are being made is that the percentage of the total IRA conversion can be higher, which may or may not be the best balanced investment approach to retirement financial planning. Diversification in income streams is also a valid retirement approach.

good luck to us retirees.

Not a Roth conversion fan, so I agree with your "Not sure I agree".

But, FYI, once you reach 65.......life expectancy is ~17 to 20 years.

Roth conversions don't make sense. Didn't you hear that in the future nobody who earns less than $150,000/year will have to pay income taxes anymore.

Agreed, silly to see all the people who are already panicking

whew! If I make 85, I will be very happy. Most in my family make 90, if accompanied with good health care.

Diversification of income streams is a good idea, but under certain conditions, a ROTH is not much different than a regular taxable account, depending upon the investments made/held/traded. At times, a ROTH may be inferior to a standard taxable accounts, due to the inability of a ROTH to write off losses, as they do happen from time to time.

There is no free lunch with investing. You pay the entrance fee and hope that your positive expectancy comes true. And when selling at the top and buying at the bottom, the act is a counter intuitive action for many reasons, due to human brain's evolution over thousands of years of fear over happiness for avoidance of risk for survival.

good luck out there, we need it.

Getting rid of IRS agents allows the super rich to get richer. The many tariffs weakens America. And it FORCES corporations and other Counties to come "hat in hand" to BEG for special tariff reductions.

A very true statement.

"The single best benchmark for all market analysis is the years from 1929 to 1954. This is the period when the Dow Jones Industrial Average peaked at 381.10 in 1929 and fell to the astoundingly low level of 41.20, a decrease of 89.19% in a period less than three years. 1954 was the year when the Dow Jones Industrial Average finally went above the 381.10 level and never looked back."

Proof ! :read:

Just picked up a new book, "Buffett & Munger Unscripted" written by Alex W. Morris. The writer collected investing wisdom from an archive comprising years of BRK shareholder meetings via gathering statements and quips from the two men and organized them into chapters. Although I have only read a few pages I am finding it beneficial and thought provoking. As I have, some may find it an especially rewarding and even soothing read during the tumultuous times we are currently experiencing.

The magnitude of moves across equities, rates, and many commodities is resulting in hedge funds being hit with some of their largest margin calls since the Covid pandemic.
Futures, Global Markets Tumble In Panic Selloff As VIX Hits 60 | ZeroHedge

This is why some call it a casino. Excessive leverage will greatly amplify moves to the downside as well as the upside.

I am going to die at 97 years old chasing a candy striper down the hall of the nursing home...Jesus said so.

I have planned accordingly.

Yeah we're gonna have flying cars and hoverboards too ;)

Just love my Roth, no RMDs ever.

:coolsmiley:

Jus make sure you have seatbelts in your cart....................you'll be fine.

:icon_wink:

Will you remember what to do if you catch her?

How much lower will it go? Any guesses?

Shiller index was at 32.66 after the close 4/17/25.

End up in the 37,000s?
 

It’s a sell day. It could make it down to the upper to middle 37ks?

Follow the chart master

Charts Show The S&P 500 At Risk Of Falling To 4,200

The good news is that stocks won't be overvalued, oversold anymore while at that level.:icon_wink:

I hope it's done going low.... I went all in on April 7th. 300 in voog and 100 on Tesla.

Now I hope it all comes back before I die.

Use options. Define your risk. In the long run we are all dead

Am a 100% invested with the SP500 under 3800. .
Currently overhedged with puts, so net short making a 1-1/2% up day today so far.

Tomorrow could be turn around Tuesday, so selling put gains at the close. . or not. . already at 100%
depends upon the market recovery today. or not. .

most all accounts 80% + in cash. .

The Fed was setup to be independent. And Tariffs are inflationary. Not a surprise the market is “way” down.

So why are people not firing their financial advisors? Their job is to make you money every day. No excuses. They are too much like overpaid, underproducing players

Yes. Absolutely correct. The Fed is being scapegoated.

The Fed is not where the accountability for this mess should land.

The Fed has to function independently -- or further chaos will ensue.

We are trapped in the throes of that tantrum of tariffs.

Buying opportunities boil down to whistling in the dark.

Today is what that threat to the Fed has brought on. Imagine what would happen if that would actually happen.

This is well beyond a normal market fluctuation. This is a self-inflicted wound, infection spreading fast, teetering on the brink of sepsis.

I admit that I have never been this worried about the economy. And I have a very long memory.

Boomer

Shiller finished at 31.86 today, slightly less than double its historic median and mean. I put my toe in the stock market water a few times over the last couple months but am now standing aside. Many serious issues currently confront the world and I have no idea how any of them will turn out.

S&P - 3500

The Federal Reserve is going to start printing huge in May. I think a lot of that liquidity/counterfeit/fiat will go into Russell 2K as smaller companies come alive to compete. Gold and Bitcoin will also do well. The next 2 weeks are going to be, um, interesting.

Catch her? I never even thought about that :)

Most of them probably just throw your money into SPY and QQQ and then go golfing for the rest of the year :)

Great job if you can get it.

How many people have financial advisors? The ones that take a % of your money?

The ones who they do better when you do better and they do much better when you lose money?

Are they giving you any helpful advice? If they knew what they were doing, they should have been buying the following stocks.


1. CVS Health (CVS): Up 49.9% YTD, making it the top performer in the S&P 500.

2. H&E Equipment Services (HEES): Up 93.6% YTD.

3. IHS Holding (IHS): Up 78.7% YTD.

4. Philip Morris International (PM): Up 31.9% in Q1 2025.

I’m not defending financial advisors and I don’t use one, but their job isn’t picking individual companies to invest in. That’s what portfolio managers of actively managed funds, that attempt to beat their market benchmark, do (not index funds). A Financial Advisors job is to evaluate their clients goals and constraints and recommend the appropriate asset allocation and best investment vehicles to achieve that mix of investments.

I tried timing the market without success. Unless your are on top of it 24/7/365 I doubt i would be able to make the call in time to catch the swing.

For the past 40 years I employed DCA, diversification both by sectors, products and split between Debt/Equity. Not very exciting, however steady performance over the decades and consistent with my risk tolerance and time horizon.

During the current decumulation phase I am employing a ‘flooring’ approach which funds fixed recurring expenses using ‘entitlements’ (SS, annuities, pensions) based on my individual risk capacity. I then look to portfolio for discretionary spending with some consideration given to market performance. In this way I am able to manage sequence of returns and market risk to achieve overall goals.

For most of the accumulation phase I was a self directed investor. However, I now employ a leading fee only professional firm to handle the day-to-day investment oversight with only periodic check-ins.

I don’t see any way to offer credible recommendations without a full understanding of that individuals risk tolerance, time horizon, risk capacity, individual resilience and goals are, so blogs are simply for general information and entertainment.

The comments above are simply my personal observations not recommendations or financial advice. When making important financial decisions consult legal, tax and other professionals.