Not today....................when will the next prediction be??

April 1st

Works pretty good, if you're not thick headed or greedy.

When you're shooting for a big change you've got to take some chances and make mistakes. "Break things and fix em fast".

I think the big waste, and fraud, will be medicare, medicare and DOD. My guess is DOD is the biggest and most shocking.

I don't think it matters what the percentages of the budget are, the people in the federal government are facilitating the waste, got to get rid of most of them.

I predict that DOD will be cut a minimum amount. The top 1% have a lot of $ in the military.

Yes but, by NOT making our our manufactured goods, that benefits the upper 1% and hurts the rest of us.We need the technology in case of a war.

At the lowest point.

The stock market disagrees.

Who needs charts! Remember the USFL. Six times bankrupt including a casino. Which direction you think were going?

Anyone who takes risks in business will have bankruptcies... It's not unusual at all.

Of course becoming as billionaire, several times over IS quite rare...

Anyone else enjoying the ride? Up and down, up and down...

The new tariff policy is already being successful in lowering prices - stock prices.

How is everyone's 401/ROTH doing?

The top 10% of Americans held 93% of all stocks, the highest level ever recorded.
Meanwhile, the bottom 50% of Americans held just 1% of all stocks in the third quarter of 2023.
The wealthiest 10% of Americans own 93% of stocks even with market participation at a record high
Something has to be done about the massive trade and goverment budget deficits. Do you have a better idea?

Jan 19 DJI close 43487
Apr 3 DJI close 40545
delta - 6.7%
My Money Market account same period +1.1%
Can anyone hear the fat lady singing yet ? I better check the batteries in my hearing aides.

I just hope my stockbroker has a clear head in this incredible mess.

The Shiller PE Index for the S&P 500 is now at 33.32, about double its median of 16.04 and mean of 17.02 so it could still have a long way to further descend. In December of 1999 it hit 44.19 before it dropped to 14ish over the next few years. Who knows what it will do?

As I learned in the BSA, be prepared!

Yep, ditch and redo the US tax code. All monies made by a corporation, no matter where are taxed, no more write offs for corporate R&D, no more deductions for mortgage interest, no more fixing by attorneys for not paying your taxes and hedgefund managers pay full tax on compensation even if it is stock. Simpler tax returns and limit cheating .

If only something was going to be done about the government budget deficits. Congress is passing budget resolutions that cut taxes by trillions more than they plan on cutting spending. This will lead to multi-trillion dollar deficits in the future. Nobody knows how much DOGE is actually cutting spending; they are not providing transparency to independently verify the amount that they say they are reducing spending; they have already been found to have made billions of dollars of errors in stating spending reductions. If you are interested in reducing budget deficits, firing thousands of IRS employees is the dumbest thing you could do. This will cost this country hundreds of billions of dollars in lost revenue each year because wealthy individuals and businesses that push the tax avoidance envelope will no longer be audited. Who is more likely to be audited - it is not Joe Middle Class whose sole sources of income is documented through W2s and 1099s. In the end, DOGE could quite possibly cost more than it is saving.

The tariff plan is going to reduce economic growth throughout the world and increase prices here. The way the tariff rates were calculated is just plain bonkers. Only 10% of our economy is now manufacturing jobs - service jobs pay better than manufacturing jobs on average; it is foolish to think that we can return to a 1950s or early 1900s economy. Maybe the plan is to have a national sales tax; since Congress will never go for that, taxing middle class Americans hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs is the next best thing; this will help pay for the tax cut plan that is skewed to the wealthy. The markets are acting rationally by plunging - the tariffs will cause reduced economic growth throughout the world and higher inflation here.

IMF imposed austerity plans have generally resulted in poverty in the countries affected.

I recall traveling with my supervising attorney and a fellow U of MN Student Director in the Legal Assistance to Minnesota Prisoners LAMP to a small town in Southeastern Minnesota where our recently released client was being sued by various small town investors for fraud in the stock options he had sold them. He had made up the company and created the various stocks. The underwriter connected to him had hired one of the best law firms in the Twin Cities to represent him. The Ivy League lawyer had convinced the judge that made up stocks in a non-existent company were not covered by the Securities Laws. The Judge then scolded the small town investors for not doing their homework and being gullible. Our client was not held accountable. I had trouble with representing some of the clients of LAMP but did my job to the best of my ability.


It did kind of solidify my interest in helping survivors/victims of crimes who are unwilling pulled into the legal system by getting them access to the most practical information. I did push that real hard around 1992 and 1993. Starting writing 10-50 listings in each US State to see what they would like to see in libraries in their States or Territories. These were listings in the Directory of Victim Assistance Programs and Resources. I received a pretty good number of responses. And shared these responses with a wide range of people. The Directory is put out by the National Organization for Victim Assistance.

I do think people really need to do their homework.

Bloomberg strategist this afternoon, heard while driving

Earnings decline 10%
Average P/E 18 which is a high for the earnings decline

SP500 target 4450

(28% from all time high)

still a long ways away and will depend upon this quarter's earnings reports and company outlooks

be patient for buying, and any changes in current status with respect to more clarity of the impacts from tariffs

It all is very worrisome and probably very hard for the majority of Villagers to listen to the financial news.

What is the title of this thread ? Tomorrow's headline - the greatest buying opportunity since ? Same people who told me last week not to bail. I wish my occupational performance was rated on the same scale.

Monday - 1987 or dead cat bounce ? Did your adviser call you today ?

There might be life in the dead cat yet. Time will tell. Even though it seems to have been run over by a Chinese tank.

Here is one to ponder - the best days on the market happens within 15 days off the worst days. Want to play poker ?

I do not gamble. Attitude that I picked up after living in Nevada from 1970 through 1984. Just a few days in 1984 though as I was getting a MA in Librarianship at the U of Denver most of 1983-1984 and then moved to Scottsdale in early Summer of 1984. And started working at Information Access Company in the Fall of 1984. It was in Belmont, CA back then.

Shiller Index closed at 31.31 today, a shade less than double its median and mean.

Speaking of take cheats, you know ones that pay less taxes than their secretary. :pepper2:

Just following the tax rules set by our congress. Change the tax laws just as he has said for a long time.

The problem is for a fairly small amount of money you can buy a congressman who will bury something in exchange that will allow a huge tax saving.

Bought mine at ....?!&@$^*

OMG! What dummies.. both of us.
🤨😬🤐😵😵*💫😡🤬

Pulling my pension early I’ve decided.

If you did not see this coming with the tariffs then you should not be in the stock market. This was done deliberately to push people from equities into treasuries to lower the yield. Many trillions of dollars of debt refinancing is coming due. It is all about the bond market...They don't care about the stock market.

For most of us this is not our first rodeo. I bought common stock shares while in high school and have since then owned some although stocks had until 2022 - 2023 not been a significant portion of my net worth. I have to admit I enjoyed the ride from 2022 -2023 until the reciprocal tariffs were initiated.

As I see it the market is still priced at about double its inherent value so I am sticking with what I know and continuing to hold income producing real estate assets as the majority of my investment portfolio.

And who makes those laws? Lawyers. Not going happen.

IMO Funny thing all you stock holders had to do was sell when it was high. like the billionaire’s selling millions of shares when high on threat, rumor, or quart of oil split somewhere. Then market takes dump. Then they buy back at lower rate. This has repeated every few months/years since they figured out they can manipulate the market in their favor. It’s win win for them. it don’t take much hearsay to trigger it cause the greed and manipulation kicks in.

14% drop
 

Dow was hit at about a 14% decline off its high. Time to stop those withdrawals and chill for a bit. The market will go back up eventually.

You can get a discount when purchasing 3.