Talk of The Villages Florida
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Talk of The Villages Florida (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/)
-   Investment Talk (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/investment-talk-158/)
-   -   GDP First Release - Stagflation (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/investment-talk-158/gdp-first-release-stagflation-358423/)

Aces4 04-30-2025 07:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill14564 (Post 2428581)
Great, you found the same data I did though I prefer the table view found on other pages.

What I don’t see there is your point. Yes, inflation was high in 2022. Today is not 2022 and today inflation is not high. Comparisons to 2020 are as valid as comparisons to 2009 and 2015 - there is a reason why inflation was low and it is not something we should desire to repeat.
Good, you can see how high inflation has injured people's income and standard of living and that we not "just 2.4%" above 2020 cost of living. We are at a very high level of inflation and I'm happy you can see it.

Bill14564 04-30-2025 07:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aces4 (Post 2428584)
Good, you can see how high inflation has injured people's income and standard of living and that we not "just 2.4%" above 2020 cost of living. We are at a very high level of inflation and I'm happy you can see it.
How can you not see that we are NOT/NOT at a high level of inflation?! You yourself stated inflation is running at 2.4% now (though you conveniently neglected to mention 2.5% in 2024).

And no, nothing you presented spoke to people’s income and standard of living. Income has gone up, standard of living is more difficult to capture.

Aces4 04-30-2025 07:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill14564 (Post 2428587)
How can you not see that we are NOT/NOT at a high level of inflation?! You yourself stated inflation is running at 2.4% now (though you conveniently neglected to mention 2.5% in 2024).

And no, nothing you presented spoke to people’s income and standard of living. Income has gone up, standard of living is more difficult to capture.
Value of $1 from 2020 to 2025
$1 in 2020 is equivalent in purchasing power to about $1.24 today, an increase of $0.24 over 5 years.

The dollar had an average inflation rate of 4.32% per year between 2020 and today, producing a cumulative price increase of 23.56%.

I don't see how people are living in an area where they don't see this increase. You're just one of the lucky ones I guess.

Dahabs 05-01-2025 05:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill14564 (Post 2428581)
Great, you found the same data I did though I prefer the table view found on other pages.

What I don’t see there is your point. Yes, inflation was high in 2022. Today is not 2022 and today inflation is not high. Comparisons to 2020 are as valid as comparisons to 2009 and 2015 - there is a reason why inflation was low and it is not something we should desire to repeat.
Stay tuned. Impact of tariffs has not worked its way through yet.

rsmurano 05-01-2025 05:42 AM
Unbelievable what people say. Highest inflation occurring today?? Is this April 1st again?
Prices are down compared to last year and way down compared to 2022. How much was gas in 2022 compared to today?
Market is down, no big deal! It’s not because of inflation. We will see a huge jump in equities later sometime this year. To make things right, it’s going to take some time. If you would have bought some stocks in the last month (I have bought 6 battered stocks in the tech area a month ago), there have been big gains. It’s still too early to get all the way back in IMO.

SaucyJim 05-01-2025 05:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aces4 (Post 2428530)
Good to hear prices you're paying stabilized and nothing has gone up in the past few years and continuing. We see constant increases in pricing, constant.. taxes, repairs, food, medical, insurance, utilities, phone bills, internet services, the list is endless. But good on you.
Good to hear your hearing is so good that you heard something not stated in the post to which you replied.

Inflation is not worse than ever. Fact. The post is accurate. Prices do not come down when inflation drops. Pricing rise more slowly. Increased prices are a result of inflation in the past few years - not inflation today.

SaucyJim 05-01-2025 06:03 AM
Congrats on disputing your own post with facts. Higher prices are not a result of today’s inflation rate. Thanks for clarifying.

SaucyJim 05-01-2025 06:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aces4 (Post 2428584)
Good, you can see how high inflation has injured people's income and standard of living and that we not "just 2.4%" above 2020 cost of living. We are at a very high level of inflation and I'm happy you can see it.
You really don’t know the difference between inflation and prices, huh? Today’s higher prices are a result of yesterday’s higher inflation rate - not today’s inflation rate.

Come on, man!

G.R.I.T.S. 05-01-2025 06:08 AM
Hard to turn a 48-month economy around in 100 days.

Federspiel 05-01-2025 06:09 AM
If we returned to golf standard and got rid of fiat money, no Fed required nor would there be inflation discussions. Both parties suckered Americans. No politics intended.

Ski Bum 05-01-2025 07:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 2428403)
This release does not include the effects of actual tariffs, but more reflects the chaos and confusion /uncertainty around the size, purpose and impact of impending tariffs.

Inflation deflator higher than expected, so next step is recession, barring no changes in policies. Most trade policies take quarters to come to an executable agreement.

So backward accounting looks are a deteriorating economy, and the Fed will not try to save the economy right away, and treasury bonds may become more risky to hold, so interest rates may rise more than expected.

Holding Treasuries, the question for why the bonds will move:
1 - inflation higher? = bonds down/rates up
2 - recession? = bonds up/rates down
3 - US Dollar down? = bonds down / rates up

good luck to us!
Core GDP is +3%, look it up. Gross domestic investment is up 22%. Exports are up 1.8%. Parroting what's in the headlines is not financial talk. There are zero events in history where we have had a recession with rising core GDP.

Cliff Fr 05-01-2025 07:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 2428403)
This release does not include the effects of actual tariffs, but more reflects the chaos and confusion /uncertainty around the size, purpose and impact of impending tariffs.

Inflation deflator higher than expected, so next step is recession, barring no changes in policies. Most trade policies take quarters to come to an executable agreement.

So backward accounting looks are a deteriorating economy, and the Fed will not try to save the economy right away, and treasury bonds may become more risky to hold, so interest rates may rise more than expected.

Holding Treasuries, the question for why the bonds will move:
1 - inflation higher? = bonds down/rates up
2 - recession? = bonds up/rates down
3 - US Dollar down? = bonds down / rates up

good luck to us!
Your ignoring the size of the National debt and the possible effect on solvency and the use of the dollar as a reserve currency. The growth in GDP has also been overstated in the previous years due to large government spending and hiring. In most cases government jobs do not equate to more "product" being produced.

Whatnext 05-01-2025 07:12 AM
Egg prices are down 83% and gas is $1.99 gal. Heard it yesterday.

gighilton 05-01-2025 07:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 2428403)
This release does not include the effects of actual tariffs, but more reflects the chaos and confusion /uncertainty around the size, purpose and impact of impending tariffs.

Inflation deflator higher than expected, so next step is recession, barring no changes in policies. Most trade policies take quarters to come to an executable agreement.

So backward accounting looks are a deteriorating economy, and the Fed will not try to save the economy right away, and treasury bonds may become more risky to hold, so interest rates may rise more than expected.

Holding Treasuries, the question for why the bonds will move:
1 - inflation higher? = bonds down/rates up
2 - recession? = bonds up/rates down
3 - US Dollar down? = bonds down / rates up

good luck to us!
Lot of Assumptions in there, and obviously with a biased point of view. Economists aren't so smart, are you one of them?

airstreamingypsy 05-01-2025 07:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by G.R.I.T.S. (Post 2428635)
Hard to turn a 48-month economy around in 100 days.
In the 48 months you are referring to, the U.S. had added 16 million jobs, unemployment was at its lowest rate in 50 years, real wages for the bottom 80% of Americans were increasing, and inflation levels had come down almost to the Federal Reserve’s target from their highs during the post-shutdown shocks.


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