Originally Posted by Ski Bum (Post 2428660)

Core GDP is +3%, look it up. Gross domestic investment is up 22%. Exports are up 1.8%. Parroting what's in the headlines is not financial talk. There are zero events in history where we have had a recession with rising core GDP.

Originally Posted by rsmurano (Post 2428706)

In the 48 months that somebody was referring too, it was all fake. Every month for the last year they had to correct their o er reaching jobs stats because they wanted to make things look better for November. Also, most job creation was in government which is wasted jobs not productive jobs. Remember the 80k irs workers that the government was hiring? I would make them all ice agents or fire them.

As for wage growth, it was all due to the foolishness of raising the minimum wage to $20 hr, so now your McDonald’s happy meal is $20 in California instead of the old $5. Everybody had to raise their cost of living and the cost of goods because of this so the $20 hr employee is still making poverty wages. Everything went up to coincide with the salary increases. The only people that suffered are the old folks on social security/fixed income. If I was still working making hundreds of thousands $$$, I would ask for an equivalent wage increase too, cost of goods was going up for me too. It’s a never ending spiral that people don’t understand. People that demand high minimum wages will pay more for all the goods so the financial situation will not change. They need to get a better job!

Originally Posted by Boilerman (Post 2428724)

The Govt always revises the economic stats when new data is incorporated.
Job creation was NOT due to Govt hiring.
Additional IRS auditors bring in more Govt revenue than they cost.
Wage growth is NOT just because of a $20 minimum wage. In Florida the minimum wage is $14 and it’s less in most states. Less than 2% of American workers make minimum wage.

Originally Posted by Boilerman (Post 2428755)

And here’s a study that shows otherwise:

The paper, “A Welfare Analysis of Tax Audits Across the Income Distributed,” published in June, is based on an analysis of about 710,000 in-person audits of individuals from 2010 to 2014. The researchers found that an additional $1 spent on audits of top earners (taxpayers above the 90th income percentile) brings in over $12 in revenue.

In addition, there is increased revenue that comes indirectly, as higher income taxpayers are less aggressive with their tax returns when they know they’ll likely be audited. This is harder to measure.

Originally Posted by Boilerman (Post 2428764)

Sure! From a Harvard study in 2023:

It turns out auditing is one government investment that pays off. A new working paper, co-authored by Hendren and published last month by the National Bureau of Economic Research, shows that audits, particularly of higher-income taxpayers, raise significantly more money than they cost.

Specifically, the paper concludes that audits cost more than previously estimated, owing to everything from training to computers and the office space needed for in-person meetings. But the revenue raised more than makes up for these expenses, mostly because audits act as a powerful deterrent to tax evasion for years to come.

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 2428403)

This release does not include the effects of actual tariffs, but more reflects the chaos and confusion /uncertainty around the size, purpose and impact of impending tariffs.

Inflation deflator higher than expected, so next step is recession, barring no changes in policies. Most trade policies take quarters to come to an executable agreement.

So backward accounting looks are a deteriorating economy, and the Fed will not try to save the economy right away, and treasury bonds may become more risky to hold, so interest rates may rise more than expected.

Holding Treasuries, the question for why the bonds will move:
1 - inflation higher? = bonds down/rates up
2 - recession? = bonds up/rates down
3 - US Dollar down? = bonds down / rates up

good luck to us!

Originally Posted by jimjamuser (Post 2428790)

I tend to agree. It is only logical that MORE IRS agents are better for the country. They are economic heroes. They act like referees in a basketball game. Some people will not like a particular call, but without referees you have a lower class game, a mere pick-up game.

Originally Posted by Bill14564 (Post 2428472)

Where did you read that inflation is worse than ever? The last report I saw said it was a little below expectations at 2.4%. Sure, 2.0% would be nice and it might go up in the next report but by no means is 2.4% "worse than ever."