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-   -   Global markets, your investment thoughts (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/investment-talk-158/global-markets-your-investment-thoughts-359330/)

DaveZ 06-12-2025 07:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by retiredguy123 (Post 2438464)
Sounds good, but the IRS doesn't agree.

From AI and Smartasset:

"The IRS taxes capital gains on gold the same way it does any other investment assets. But if you have bought physical gold, you'll likely owe a higher tax rate of 28% as a collectible. Mar 28, 2025."

From Bankrate:

"Capital gains on physical gold are taxed as collectibles and can be higher than the standard long-term capital gains tax rate. The maximum capital gains tax rate on collectibles, including physical gold, is 28%. This means that if you hold gold for more than a year and sell it for a profit, you may owe 28% of that profit in taxes, according to Bankrate."

As I understand it, gold ETF’s like IAU also incur the 28% capital gains hit on profit taken on sale. News articles out there about many retirees buying gold ETF’s without realizing this.

retiredguy123 06-12-2025 07:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaveZ (Post 2438467)
As I understand it, gold ETF’s like IAU also incur the 28% capital gains hit on profit taken on sale. News articles out there about many retirees buying gold ETF’s without realizing this.

Correct. Here is why the IRS treats gold ETFs as a collectible:

"Gold ETFs that hold physical gold are treated as collectibles for tax purposes by the IRS because they are considered to represent direct ownership of the underlying metal. This classification leads to a higher long-term capital gains tax rate of 28%, compared to the 15% or 20% rate that typically applies to other assets."

opinionist 06-12-2025 07:43 AM

Physical gold/silver has no counterparty risk, unlike every other asset.
It serves as a means to protect wealth and appears unattractive to those who want a net positive real asset growth.
The global financial system is headed for collapse due to fiscal insanity anywhere and everywhere.
Tangible assets may be the only thing of value after the quadrillions in derivative products cause a cascade failure.
My current allocation is 20% physical gold/silver, 50% real estate, and 30% mining and other foreign stocks/bonds.

kingofbeer 06-12-2025 08:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HappyTraveler (Post 2438301)
Pretty much the same thing. Six of one; half a dozen of the other.

It is important to know these factors before you invest.
"Generally, ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) have lower costs than mutual funds. ETFs typically have lower expense ratios, which are the fees charged by the fund to manage the investment. For example, the median expense ratio for ETFs is 0.52%, while the median for mutual funds is 0.91%. While some mutual funds can have lower expense ratios, on average, ETFs are the more cost-effective option. "

kingofbeer 06-12-2025 08:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by retiredguy123 (Post 2438309)
Impossible to do with the built-in capital gains taxes. But, with Vanguard, there really isn't much difference between their Admiral Index mutual funds and their ETFs. The expense ratios are so small that the cost difference is negligible.

I will follow the advice of the experts who prefer etf's over mutual funds.

kingofbeer 06-12-2025 08:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pugchief (Post 2438369)
Because?....

If you're going to make a recommendation like this, you might want to explain your reasoning.

Personally, I have owned index funds in both formats and prefer mutual funds assuming the expense ratios are comparable. And I will explain why: If you need to sell in a volatile market, it is preferable, IMO, to have end of day pricing regardless of volume.

"Generally, ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) have lower costs than mutual funds. ETFs typically have lower expense ratios, which are the fees charged by the fund to manage the investment. For example, the median expense ratio for ETFs is 0.52%, while the median for mutual funds is 0.91%. While some mutual funds can have lower expense ratios, on average, ETFs are the more cost-effective option. "

kingofbeer 06-12-2025 08:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by retiredguy123 (Post 2438309)
Impossible to do with the built-in capital gains taxes. But, with Vanguard, there really isn't much difference between their Admiral Index mutual funds and their ETFs. The expense ratios are so small that the cost difference is negligible.

You are referring to your specific circumstances. I am not a Vanguard customer for example.

kingofbeer 06-12-2025 08:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Normal (Post 2438326)
Amen… 1970 is long gone. Gold hasn’t nearly improved as well as stocks. We have about 20 % in cash and CDs of various banks. The stocks keep rolling it in.

Now we have a trade deal with China brilliantly crafted to our advantage. I say steady as she goes and enjoy your life.

How is the China trade deal good for us? We are charging 55% tariff on imports for China. The US consumer is paying for this.

retiredguy123 06-12-2025 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingofbeer (Post 2438498)
You are referring to your specific circumstances. I am not a Vanguard customer for example.

Yes, I only invest in index funds with Vanguard. If you read post no. 13, you will see that the expense raios are extremely low and the difference in cost between a Vanguard mutual fund and a Vanguard ETF is very small.

GATORBILL66 06-12-2025 08:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaveZ (Post 2438219)
A large portion of the US government's debt, approximately $9.2 trillion, will mature in the first half of 2025 with August being the key month and refinancing probably at a higher interest rate. Treasuries demand is low. Gold and other scarce assets are very high if not record high as investors eye uncertainty. BRICS countries are also snapping up metals like gold perhaps seeing sustained weakness in the dollar.

Sorry if redundant news but frames my question; what is your strategy?

(Serious and thoughtful replies if you don’t mind please.).

If the government would quit giving billions of taxpayers money to all these colleges the nation debt would come down in a hurry!

kingofbeer 06-12-2025 09:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rsmurano (Post 2438461)
I look at what’s going on in the economy, WH, and global events to try and figure out if it’s wise to be in the market, or to be in all money market funds. My days of holding thru recessions like in 2022 are over, I’m capitalizing on the downturns to make money, sell into money market funds then start getting back in when sentiment is at its lowest. It worked in 2022 and last December when I sold everything. This year I got back into the market the 1st week in April and in these last 2 months have had my biggest rebound gains since the 2020 ‘V’ shape recovery.

When somebody makes a claim to jump into etfs over anything else is not an investor. There are thousands of mutual funds, index funds and etfs. I have heard people say they are getting into etfs like they are all have magical values to them. No fund group has any magical traits, you still have to know which fund you want to get into because some will make money and many many others will not. You can make a small fortune right now depending on how you invest.
I never have nor ever will buy bonds. I want to make money, if I want to be safe, I’ll put it in money markets, which I still have 25% of our portfolio in money market making over 4%, was making over 5.25% a few months ago. So my portfolio is 75% stocks/funds and 25% mm. All of my funds are indexed based with expense ratios of .02-.04%, low risk, high return, low turnover, and I have had most of these for over a decade when I’m fully invested. Most if not all earn over 25% with a couple over 40% a year.
Normally I only invest in stocks that I know like Apple, meta, Tesla and a few others. In 2023, I got back into the market with stocks like the above and made 100’s % gains then got out of all of them last December. Easy money since they were all way down, some of them below $100 a share.

I did the same thing in April 2025, got into 7 AI/high tech/and other class of stocks and made very good money. I normally don’t share my picks but since I’m out of 3 of them now, I can share: APP, ZIM, and HIMS, with HIMS making 100% gains in a couple months while the others were around 50% gains. Sold these and put the monies into other beat up high tech stocks that are making the same type of gains as those 3. Eventually when these stocks start leveling off I’ll be back into my go to index funds.

Your strategy is good. You share 3 winners. Do you have any losers to share? Regarding the 3 winners, it is hard to predict when to buy those and when to sell those. I suspect you just got lucky timing with the 3 winners.

kingofbeer 06-12-2025 09:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaveZ (Post 2438467)
As I understand it, gold ETF’s like IAU also incur the 28% capital gains hit on profit taken on sale. News articles out there about many retirees buying gold ETF’s without realizing this.

I suspect that most retirees money is in non-taxable accounts. The capital gains would not apply there.

Peachbelle 06-12-2025 09:16 AM

My problem with buying gold is you buy it at "spot" prices plus fees but when you sell it it is only bought at "scrap" prices plus fees. There's about a 25% difference between spot and scrap prices. So unless you can buy at "scrap" prices you are not getting a good deal. If anyone knows a way to buy at "scrap" let me know.

DaveZ 06-12-2025 09:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingofbeer (Post 2438512)
I suspect that most retirees money is in non-taxable accounts. The capital gains would not apply there.

Got it, thanks!!

Stu from NYC 06-12-2025 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingofbeer (Post 2438512)
I suspect that most retirees money is in non-taxable accounts. The capital gains would not apply there.

I will disagree. Unless you have your funds in a roth many of us have IRA or 401 that is taxable.

retiredguy123 06-12-2025 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC (Post 2438530)
I will disagree. Unless you have your funds in a roth many of us have IRA or 401 that is taxable.

Any income that you remove from an IRA or 401K will be taxed at your ordinary income tax rate. You can never take advantage of the lower capital gains rate.

kingofbeer 06-12-2025 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC (Post 2438530)
I will disagree. Unless you have your funds in a roth many of us have IRA or 401 that is taxable.

IRA and 401k accounts are not taxed

kingofbeer 06-12-2025 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by retiredguy123 (Post 2438538)
Any income that you remove from an IRA or 401K will be taxed at your ordinary income tax rate. You can never take advantage of the lower capital gains rate.

Income from these accounts are not subject to tax. The withdrawals are subject to tax.

kingofbeer 06-12-2025 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RoboVil (Post 2438448)
I have had some pretty nasty tax surprises with mutual funds. You don't get tax surprises with ETFs

Agreed. Mutual funds in taxable accounts will create taxable events. In some cases, the funds have lost you money, but do report capital gains and distributions which will create taxable event.

retiredguy123 06-12-2025 12:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingofbeer (Post 2438549)
Income from these accounts are not subject to tax. The withdrawals are subject to tax.

I may not have been clear. What I said was that income that is "removed" from an IRA is taxed. If you have money in an IRA that was funded with after-tax money, it is not taxed when you remove it. You do not pay tax on IRA income until you remove it from the IRA.

Pugchief 06-12-2025 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MandoMan (Post 2438437)
What’s good for the country is those who have a lot paying more taxes and lowering the deficit and the national debt.

No, what's good for the country would be to cut spending and eliminate fraud, waste and abuse.

Good luck with that.

Pugchief 06-12-2025 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RoboVil (Post 2438446)
tech stocks in general, with a focus on AI stocks (NVDA, DELL, SMCI) and an eye on quantum computing stocks (waiting for a big pullback after the hype fades). Tech is the future (Always).

Ah yes. QQQ did great in 2000-2002...


Quote:

With a sizeable portion in high-yield, safe investments.
What "high yield" investments are also safe? Usually mutually exclusive....

Pugchief 06-12-2025 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RoboVil (Post 2438448)
I have had some pretty nasty tax surprises with mutual funds. You don't get tax surprises with ETFs

Absolutely false. I have some Schwab index ETFs that have thrown off an insane amount of unwanted distributions over the years.

Pugchief 06-12-2025 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oneclickplus (Post 2438459)
Ummm, according to the US constitution, gold and silver are the ONLY legal money. Money itself can not be subject to a capital gain. There is no capital gain when spending that gold for anything including fiat paper currency. Valuing gold in fiat currency or land or food or goats does not constitute any gain. It is fraudulent for the USG to value everything in fiat dollars in order to confiscate / tax any perceived gain. Gold and silver (constitutionally) are not subject to any capital gains.

Try reversing your thinking. Gold is not $3300 / ounce. Rather:
a fiat dollar is worth 1/3300 of an ounce of gold (today)
a loaf of bread is 1/660 of an ounce of gold
a new car is worth 10 ounces of gold

Eventually, a fiat dollar will be worth nothing but a loaf of bread will still be 1/660 of an ounce of gold or other adjusted value (supply / demand). Same with cars, furniture, ovens, cattle, etc.

Good luck using that explanation when the IRS comes calling.

Pugchief 06-12-2025 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by opinionist (Post 2438476)
Physical gold/silver has no counterparty risk, unlike every other asset.

True, sort of. Do you store it yourself? If not you have counterparty risk. And storage costs.

If you self-store, you have storage risk.

Both ways, you pay excessive spreads.

I prefer Gold ETFs for those reasons.

Pugchief 06-12-2025 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peachbelle (Post 2438515)
My problem with buying gold is you buy it at "spot" prices plus fees but when you sell it it is only bought at "scrap" prices plus fees. There's about a 25% difference between spot and scrap prices. So unless you can buy at "scrap" prices you are not getting a good deal. If anyone knows a way to buy at "scrap" let me know.

As I stated earlier, while there are fees, they can be in the area of 5% round-trip if you know what you are doing. 25% is ridiculous.

retiredguy123 06-12-2025 12:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingofbeer (Post 2438552)
Agreed. Mutual funds in taxable accounts will create taxable events. In some cases, the funds have lost you money, but do report capital gains and distributions which will create taxable event.

You are correct. But, to me, as long as you have sufficient funds to pay the taxes, you are just paying taxes that you will have to pay eventually anyway.

dewilson58 06-12-2025 01:14 PM

Gold is only as good as people continuing to believe gold is safe.

Sounds like Bitcoin.

HappyTraveler 06-12-2025 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dewilson58 (Post 2438579)
Gold is only as good as people continuing to believe gold is safe.

Sounds like Bitcoin.

Also sounds like fiat currencies. Caveat emptor to all, about everything.

kingofbeer 06-12-2025 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by retiredguy123 (Post 2438556)
I may not have been clear. What I said was that income that is "removed" from an IRA is taxed. If you have money in an IRA that was funded with after-tax money, it is not taxed when you remove it. You do not pay tax on IRA income until you remove it from the IRA.

The term used is withdrawn

Aces4 06-12-2025 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dewilson58 (Post 2438579)
Gold is only as good as people continuing to believe gold is safe.

Sounds like Bitcoin.

Just like everything else purported to be "valuable".. stocks, cash, diamonds and so on. They're only worth what one believes they are worth.

Another viewpoint to share.. if the world financial system collapses as espoused earlier in this thread this won't be like the Great Depression. That world of people with character, integrity, class and dignity is long gone and probably the only winners will be the people who are armed.

Aces4 06-12-2025 05:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingofbeer (Post 2438603)
The term used is withdrawn

If it's withdrawn, it's removed. Geez..:loco:

dewilson58 06-12-2025 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aces4 (Post 2438624)
Just like everything else purported to be "valuable".. stocks, cash, diamonds and so on. They're only worth what one believes they are worth.

Another viewpoint to share.. if the world financial system collapses as espoused earlier in this thread this won't be like the Great Depression. That world of people with character, integrity, class and dignity is long gone and probably the only winners will be the people who are armed.

Yep

DaveZ 06-13-2025 06:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dewilson58 (Post 2438579)
Gold is only as good as people continuing to believe gold is safe.

Sounds like Bitcoin.

I think that for some this is true because they will always have something to sell even if at a loss (never nothing) and for others both BTC and gold are attractive because of their scarcity which is an opposite (or hedge) to printing more currency.

crash 06-13-2025 07:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Normal (Post 2438326)
Amen… 1970 is long gone. Gold hasn’t nearly improved as well as stocks. We have about 20 % in cash and CDs of various banks. The stocks keep rolling it in.

Now we have a trade deal with China brilliantly crafted to our advantage. I say steady as she goes and enjoy your life.

The trade deal with China is back to the status quo before all the drama. Yes brilliant.

kingofbeer 06-13-2025 07:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aces4 (Post 2438626)
If it's withdrawn, it's removed. Geez..:loco:

Check with fidelity,vanguard,etrade. You withdraw money from your account. You take a distribution. You do not remove money from your account. IRS calls it a distribution or rollover in some cases. It is important to use the proper terminology. Geez means nothing to me. Not offensive to me.

retiredguy123 06-13-2025 08:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingofbeer (Post 2438717)
Check with fidelity,vanguard,etrade. You withdraw money from your account. You take a distribution. You do not remove money from your account. IRS calls it a distribution or rollover in some cases. It is important to use the proper terminology. Geez means nothing to me. Not offensive to me.

I agree that proper terminology is important. But, the proper terminology is to call it a distribution, not a withdrawal. Withdrawal is not the proper terminology because you could have your IRA assets in more than one financial institution. You could withdraw IRA money from one institution and deposit it into the other institution. This can be done using a rollover or a direct transfer. But it would not qualify as an IRA distribution because the money is still in an IRA. RMD stands for "required minimum distribution". I have a Vanguard account, and when I make an IRA distribution, I don't "withdraw" money from Vanguard, I just transfer it from my IRA to the non-IRA portion of my Vanguard portfolio. I never withdraw money directly from Vanguard. If I want to spend money from Vanguard, I transfer it to my Truist checking account, and then I write a check.

manaboutown 06-13-2025 08:19 AM

Looks like Morgan Stanley is buying E*Trade.

https://carpenterwellington.com/post...2Dstock%20deal.

kingofbeer 06-13-2025 09:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by retiredguy123 (Post 2438730)
I agree that proper terminology is important. But, the proper terminology is to call it a distribution, not a withdrawal. Withdrawal is not the proper terminology because you could have your IRA assets in more than one financial institution. You could withdraw IRA money from one institution and deposit it into the other institution. This can be done using a rollover or a direct transfer. But it would not qualify as an IRA distribution because the money is still in an IRA. RMD stands for "required minimum distribution". I have a Vanguard account, and when I make an IRA distribution, I don't "withdraw" money from Vanguard, I just transfer it from my IRA to the non-IRA portion of my Vanguard portfolio. I never withdraw money directly from Vanguard. If I want to spend money from Vanguard, I transfer it to my Truist checking account, and then I write a check.

"Fidelity uses the terms "withdrawal" and "distribution" interchangeably to refer to the removal of funds from your account, including retirement accounts. Withdrawals can be made from various accounts, and the specifics of the process depend on the type of account and the type of withdrawal. For example, normal withdrawals from SIMPLE IRAs are treated as taxable income. "

kingofbeer 06-13-2025 09:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by manaboutown (Post 2438736)
Looks like Morgan Stanley is buying E*Trade.

https://carpenterwellington.com/post...2Dstock%20deal.

Morgan Stanley acquired ETRADE Financial Corporation on October 2, 2020.


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