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-   -   Global markets, your investment thoughts (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/investment-talk-158/global-markets-your-investment-thoughts-359330/)

tophcfa 06-13-2025 09:37 AM

Markets like stability, not uncertainty. The global landscape became much more unstable late last night.

lkagele 06-13-2025 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pugchief (Post 2438564)
True, sort of. Do you store it yourself? If not you have counterparty risk. And storage costs.

If you self-store, you have storage risk.

Both ways, you pay excessive spreads.

I prefer Gold ETFs for those reasons.

IMO, you don't need to worry about a buy/sell spread if you own physical gold. It's something you should never sell unless things go really bad and you have to. Otherwise, physical gold is something that should make your kids very happy when they open your safe after you've died.

Nothing wrong with ETF's but I have the same fear with that as I do with digital coins. If the internet goes down, there's really no way to access those funds.

Again, IMO, a better way to invest in gold is through gold miners. Get the timing correct and you'll see exponential returns. As gold prices rise, fixed costs to mine that gold remain relatively the same. A 10% rise in gold prices could raise a miner's earnings by 50% or even more. If you're not comfortable picking individual miners then there's the GDX and GDXJ ETF funds. Timing is key when making any precious metal investment.

Boomer 06-13-2025 11:07 AM

. . .

Pugchief 06-13-2025 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lkagele (Post 2438769)
Nothing wrong with ETF's but I have the same fear with that as I do with digital coins. If the internet goes down, there's really no way to access those funds.

If the internet goes down, whatcha gonna be able to do with those gold coins in your safe? As someone else posted upthread, ammo is going to be a lot more valuable than gold if the SHTF. No one is going to care about gold. Only food, water and ammo.

Quote:

Again, IMO, a better way to invest in gold is through gold miners. Get the timing correct and you'll see exponential returns. As gold prices rise, fixed costs to mine that gold remain relatively the same. A 10% rise in gold prices could raise a miner's earnings by 50% or even more. If you're not comfortable picking individual miners then there's the GDX and GDXJ ETF funds. Timing is key when making any precious metal investment.
When you invest in gold miners, you are investing in a company, not a commodity. It's not the same. But to each his own.

SoCalGal 06-13-2025 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dewilson58 (Post 2438255)
FYI. Average interest rate on Federal Debt is ~3.6%

False. The average interest rate on the U.S. federal debt is approximately 3.3% as of the most recent data from late 2024 and early 2025. According to the U.S. Department of the Treasury and other sources, the average interest rate on the total marketable national debt was reported at 3.28% as of December 31, 2024, and 3.3% in October 2024, with similar figures cited in other reports. While rates have risen significantly in recent years, they have not reached 3.6% on average for the total federal debt.

https://x.com/maxjanderson/status/1904566653851173255

HappyTraveler 06-13-2025 02:25 PM

Couple things worth mentioning.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pugchief (Post 2438810)
If the internet goes down, whatcha gonna be able to do with those gold coins in your safe? Sell or barter them locally, if need be. There will always be buyers for precious metals.Can't do the same with stocks/funds or money in the bank, if the bank is closed for awhile. As someone else posted upthread, ammo is going to be a lot more valuable than gold if the SHTF. FOOD and potable WATER will be the most valuable, followed by ammo to protect it. No one is going to care about gold. However, see below. Only food, water and ammo.

I've been reading a couple of news/financial/political blogs for over a dozen years and I always find it interesting that most people seem to think of SHTF scenarios in the most stark, Mad Max-type terms. The Great Depression wasn't like that neither was the massive inflationary period of the 70s or the more recent "Great Recession". There can be longish periods (years) where many things are scarce and plenty are without jobs, incomes, etc. But, it isn't an end-of-the-world dynamic like they imagine.

It is quite literally impossible to ever be ideally invested (minus sheer luck) but, some people like to diversify and hedge in ways that cover the most possible or likely bases. Especially when the writing is on the wall, in capital letters. U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time

DaveZ 06-13-2025 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HappyTraveler (Post 2438819)
Couple things worth mentioning.



I've been reading a couple of news/financial/political blogs for over a dozen years and I always find it interesting that most people seem to think of SHTF scenarios in the most stark, Mad Max-type terms. The Great Depression wasn't like that neither was the massive inflationary period of the 70s or the more recent "Great Recession". There can be longish periods (years) where many things are scarce and plenty are without jobs, incomes, etc. But, it isn't an end-of-the-world dynamic like they imagine.

It is quite literally impossible to ever be ideally invested (minus sheer luck) but, some people like to diversify and hedge in ways that cover the most possible or likely bases. Especially when the writing is on the wall, in capital letters. U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time

Well said! Thank you.

Pugchief 06-13-2025 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HappyTraveler (Post 2438819)
I always find it interesting that most people seem to think of SHTF scenarios in the most stark, Mad Max-type terms. The Great Depression wasn't like that neither was the massive inflationary period of the 70s or the more recent "Great Recession". There can be longish periods (years) where many things are scarce and plenty are without jobs, incomes, etc. But, it isn't an end-of-the-world dynamic like they imagine.

Except during exactly none of those time periods did you not have access to your investments other than perhaps a few days. The economy may have been awful, but life was just unpleasant. That is not SHTF.

SHTF is when there is no internet, no cell service, all the stores are closed, all the banks are closed and there is limited access to resources for survival. I maintain that no one will want gold, and if they do, they will take it from you by force if you can't protect it. Hopefully, we will never find out which one of is correct.

Aces4 06-13-2025 05:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingofbeer (Post 2438717)
Check with fidelity,vanguard,etrade. You withdraw money from your account. You take a distribution. You do not remove money from your account. IRS calls it a distribution or rollover in some cases. It is important to use the proper terminology. Geez means nothing to me. Not offensive to me.

If we're dwelling on your perception of what terminology you deem allowable, how about putting spacing between fidelity,vanguard,etrade and using capital letters on those proper nouns.

Yes, I have removed money from some accounts and there isn't any other way to slice it. You can apply the jargon that you wish but it's been removed.

Aces4 06-13-2025 05:44 PM

[QUOTE=HappyTraveler;2438819]Couple things worth mentioning.
I've been reading a couple of news/financial/political blogs for over a dozen years and I always find it interesting that most people seem to think of SHTF scenarios in the most stark, Mad Max-type terms. The Great Depression wasn't like that neither was the massive inflationary period of the 70s or the more recent "Great Recession". There can be longish periods (years) where many things are scarce and plenty are without jobs, incomes, etc. But, it isn't an end-of-the-world dynamic like they imagine.

If the dollar and world money systems collapse, you won't just see reduced buying power. There will be no method of exchange unless we go back to trading beads, shells, furs, etc. It would be reestablished eventually, if we haven't canabalized each other in the interim for sustanence and survival.

kingofbeer 06-13-2025 07:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aces4 (Post 2438867)
If we're dwelling on your perception of what terminology you deem allowable, how about putting spacing between fidelity,vanguard,etrade and using capital letters on those proper nouns.

Yes, I have removed money from some accounts and there isn't any other way to slice it. You can apply the jargon that you wish but it's been removed.

I will follow the explicit instructions as specified.

Aces4 06-13-2025 07:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingofbeer (Post 2438878)
I will follow the explicit instructions as specified.

:clap2:

HappyTraveler 06-13-2025 08:06 PM

Regarding comments #88 and 90.

Sigh...dwelling on that unlikely Mad Max scenario again. I can't know for certain but, I don't think most people buy gold anticipating THAT. They have other and varied reasons.

I also don't know why there are those who seem threatened by the fact that some people choose to own precious metals. Who cares? They have their reasons.

Now, if someone would like to explain to me how quite a few people are comfortable owning crypto currencies as "investments", I'd be interested to hear the thinking on that.

CoachKandSportsguy 06-23-2025 08:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by retiredguy123 (Post 2438309)
Impossible to do with the built-in capital gains taxes. But, with Vanguard, there really isn't much difference between their Admiral Index mutual funds and their ETFs. The expense ratios are so small that the cost difference is negligible.

Vanguard has IRS approval for no cap gains conversion from mutual funds to ETFs process, and other custodians are tagging along. .

So old information :)

CoachKandSportsguy 06-23-2025 08:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HappyTraveler (Post 2438885)
Regarding comments #88 and 90.

Sigh...dwelling on that unlikely Mad Max scenario again. I can't know for certain but, I don't think most people buy gold anticipating THAT. They have other and varied reasons.

I also don't know why there are those who seem threatened by the fact that some people choose to own precious metals. Who cares? They have their reasons.

Now, if someone would like to explain to me how quite a few people are comfortable owning crypto currencies as "investments", I'd be interested to hear the thinking on that.

I own GOLD, $IAU ETF, and have 80% appreciation. Bought after the pandemic spending ballooned the deficit, and didn't expect anyone to be able to do anything about it. Expecting the debt bubble to erode the USD, making gold more expensive, maybe even a Zimbabwe moment. . . aka Minsky moment.

CoachKandSportsguy 06-23-2025 09:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 2440915)
I own GOLD, $IAU ETF, and have 80% appreciation. Bought after the pandemic spending ballooned the deficit, and didn't expect anyone to be able to do anything about it. Expecting the debt bubble to erode the USD, making gold more expensive, maybe even a Zimbabwe moment. . . aka Minsky moment.


a higher tax rate is just part of the deal, owning physical gold, but at the end of the day, any investment choice is about the aftertax gain, which means a 28% tax on a 70% gain is still more profitable than tax free on an 8% munibond. If you don't talk after tax gains, you don't have a clue.

ETFs are more tax efficient in TAXABLE accounts
Mutual Funds vs ETFS are returns after expenses measured in TAX DEFERRED accounts.. .

Taxes on TAX DEFERRED account WITHDRAWALS are not a fixed percentage, but is based upon your entire income from your portfolio. So everyone will be different, which means ya'all talking out your buttholes about other peoples' tax situations of which you know nothing. . .

Whatnext 06-23-2025 12:39 PM

I remember when withdrawal was a form of contraception!
Deposits were considered very high risk.


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