There will be all kinds of conflicting advice. Gone are the days where you could build a portfolio of treasury bonds and they would pay the rate of inflation plus 2%. Last time I looked a 10 year treasury was paying 1.4% and the CPI (consumer price index) was 5%.
You pay your bills AFTER TAXES are TAKEN. Depending on your TOP TAX bracket you need to make 5% plus your top tax bracket TO BE EVEN.

Advisors? The first question to ask is how are they paid. As much as they seem to like you, they too need to earn money. Some, too many, are commission salesmen claiming to be financial advisors. Those pushing annuities. The reason is very simple, the commissions are put of sight. Twenty percent is normal. Realize what that means you give them say 10,000 and they promise you say 7%. REALITY they have 10,000 less 20%
commission so 8,000 need to earn $700.

I do not know you. I do not know what you have or what you need. I do not know what is in what they call an aggressive retirement portfolio. You can easily get reviews of that fund on places like Morningstar and or Seeking Alpha. In a 403B there are probably several options. You do not need to have all you have in one option.

Fortunately. Today we have easy access to far more information than in the past, just using your computer.

Anyone giving you information on this site. Ask their motive. You should not provide
sufficient information on a public site for anyone to give you proper guidance. The point of my post.

The first thing you MUST realize is your 403 B is subject to a25% tax anytime to take money out! 403B is one of the worst being taxed….you may need to discuss options on it, because 25%. Is a huge number to pay tax to the government!

Why not get a fiduciary (don't go with a financial advisor)....there's a BIG difference.
And get the advice BEFORE reading the books. In other words, don't put the cart in front of the horse.

A financial advisor (certainly not all of them) may charge a commission up front, and take his money and leave your investment up to luck. Many advisors do "front end loading", and/or advise you to invest with their prime concern being them making money off of your investment.
A fiduciary doesn't do that, and by law, must answer to the state for any "screw ups" and possibly loose their license.

Just my 2 cents...(but with inflation, worth 25 cents).

do not transfer to an annuity
 

Just curious as to your thoughts on not transferring to an annuity. I have considered doing so. Don't want to make a mistake. Please expand. Thank you.

The Truth About Money by Ric Edelman is a very good educational reference to understanding money....

Are you in high risk? Invest in a low to medium risk. Especially if you are an older senior citizen. Make sure you diversify. In other words invest your money in multiple stocks. If one goes down, another might go up. Also have bonds and cash. The most important thing for me is to have is, "Stops", put in. This way if one of your accounts starts to lose too much money, it will kick in and be sold and put into cash before you lose it all. It stops by what percentage you have set up. I use Gary Edwards at Wells Fargo. His number is 352-259-3000. He made it very easy for me to understand how my money was invested. Make an appointment to just talk to him. You don't have to invest with them.

Do the minimum
 

With your experience do the minimum decide % for stocks for example 30% then 70% bonds. Put the stocks in a total stock index like VTI then the the rest in total bond index like DODIX or BND and leave it. When stocks crash and VTI is just 25% move 5% of the bond into it or vice versa maybe every 6 months or after alot noise about the market. NEVER sell otherwise if you stay in with bad times you'll do fine.

BUT if you live on the 403b keep 2 years worth in a money market or high yield online savings like ally so you don't take out in bad times

I make the most money reallocating from bonds to stocks in like 2008 or 2020

Further OPINION from me.
Terms like I'm ignorant frankly is not so. Too many people THINK they know but in reality they do not know that they do not know.
I need a financial guru. No you need to learn to prevent advisors from taking advantage of you. There is no shortage of tricks to line their pockets.
A 403B, you need to review what is available and FEES you are paying.
Others mentioned Fidelity. The three biggest brokerages are Fidelity,T. Rowe Price, and Vanguard. If, I am right, it does not matter, Vanguard is the biggest of the three, Fidelity is second and T.Rowe is third. It does not matter because all three of them are huge.
A big plus for Fidelity is that they have an office in Lake Sumter Landing. Far as I know T. Rowe has closed all their offices and Vanguard never had any.
I think it is a big plus to be able to set up an appointment and speak to a HUMAN face to face. Government forms as in a 403B a mistake is well a pain to correct. I have Fidelity guide me filling them out.

How does she understand the advise from an advisor if she does not understand investing at all?

Is there such a thing as "an official fiduciary license" ? If so what are the requirements and who issues the license ? I have asked many advisors are you a fiduciary. No one has ever said no back. What I do get is a list of this organization and that training etc. However what I don't see is a common piece of paper like in the Doctor's office on the wall that clearly says Doctor Degree of Medicine.

The reason for analysts
 

Warren Buffet says that the purpose of market analysts is to make fortune-tellers look good.

Who said she was a she?

I have been an investor for 55 years and was once a stock broker. My entire career was in finance. The simple truth is that no one knows when or how much the next crash will be. If the next crash were to be on the scale of 2008, then nothing is safe. While there were small number of exceptions, virtually everything went down in that crash.

If you really cannot afford to lose the money, then 100% of it should not be in the stock market. I know that 2.5% to 3% in absolutely safe bonds sucks, but at least you will still have your principal. Remember, if your advisors are wrong, neither will write you checks to cover losses.

Having said all that, I expect that the market will do O.K. for the next couple of years. We certainly could have a correction of 10% at any time, but I don't see a 2008 looming anytime soon.

I agree. It appears that you are already conservatively invested. That's about the right mix for a conservative portfolio. You referred to it as aggressive. Maybe you were confused. I wouldn't worry about your money, unless you can not afford to lose even a tiny amount. Most times we make up what we lose within a reasonable time. Hope this helps.

See Post No. 55.

If the so called investment people knew what the market was going to do, they would be millionaires.

Wall Street Roulette.

As I've already said far as Lincoln check what you are paying for management fees. Whatever it is are you getting value for what you are paying? Your post indicates they are of no value to you. It might be your fault. You should be able to call Lincoln and the manager of your 403B and get advice.

On a 403B, check what I say, you should be able to transfer YOUR money into a self directed IRA with no tax penalties. I assume you are no longer working. I doubt your employer is still putting money into your retirement account.

It makes no difference-does it?

Aggressive retirement portfolio. Sound to me like you are in a retirement date fund where they re balance based on your age. Your numbers 46.77 bonds, 27.47 bonds 25.76% cash. You have or should have or can get a statement of what you hold.
Might be interesting to run it through Morningstar fund x-ray, it is FREE and see what they say about your allocation. It should be close to what you say your allocation is.

She said she was a she, and not a he in opening post.
However that may not cover all the gender requirements of the person in question.
Bathroom arrangements have so far definitely not been discussed!:icon_wink:

Being a millionaire does not mean what it once did. Remember that old TV show THE MILLIONAIRE. The premise was some wealthy person would anonymously give worthy people a check for a million and they were set for life. Today, due to inflation that check is now roughly a sixth of a million160,000.

Reality re: Warren Buffet.
Listed as the greatest stock picker, He has a staff that explores and investigate the data.
He of course pays for that.

You could not, I cannot pay the salaries of his staff.

Buffet recently said do as I say not as I do. He did not beat the S&P average this year.
He has said publicly you/we should simply buy one of the index funds.

Buffet has also said that was a mistake I lost 45 million on that stock.
Was I to loose 45 million there would be a lot of people wondering how they were so stupid as to lend me that much money.

Even the adverb Buffet like is well nuts. You do not even trade in the same market as Buffet does. Nor do you need to disclose what you hold and what you are buying or selling.

Back to the original question - is the stock market going to crash ? Answer historically is yes. The market has corrected every 4 - 7 years. The more important question is when ? Majority of scholars agree you can not time the market. However I predict by the end of this year. When all the protection for renters not paying rent and banks not able to foreclose expires ( I think around Sept?) landlords will find the renters are never going to pay back the rent. Where will that extra money for them to do so come from ? Landlords will have a sour taste and realize they are not in control of their own investment. Now couple loss of rent with loss of control and the realization the real estate market is red hot there will be a rush to sell to recoup. The rush to sell will flood the market with real estate and the housing market will crash. Many people equate high house values to wealth and that feel good feeling subconsciously drives them to spend. When the housing market crashes it will drastically stop the spending and bingo - crash.

Except the OP....................very entertaining thread. :yuck:

Financial Fudiciary
 

Talk to Kelley Pyles at Royal Fund Managment. 352-750-1637

If you can't "afford to lose it in a crash" as you stated - then you should have zero or a max of 10% in stocks. You need 90% in BONDS. I prefer to use ETFs (electronically traded funds) specifically for BONDS. The best way to buy and trade BONDS is to get an internet broker (like Ameritrade) and buy 2 ETFs.......BND, which is ALL US bonds, and BNDX, which is ALL European bonds. That IS a simple yet elegant system. You have VERY low risk and small STEADY GAINS. And you can convert to cash in 5 minutes by simply selling it yourself with a couple clicks of your mouse. Take care!

Cool dog Grumpy look at my advice to her. But BND and BNDX.........VERY low risk - almost zero. And yes timing the market is tough and risky. That's why the former CEO of Vanguard designed ETFs. Brilliant dude!!!!!!

If you are worried......drop the stocks down to 15%. And don't buy INDIVIDUAL stocks. Buy the ETFs for ALL the Nasdaq (QQQ) and for ALL of New York Exchange (SPY).

(1) I am not sure why this portfolio is called "Aggressive" unless asset allocation changed over time and you are quite senior. Something seems wrong here. Aggressive means not conservative. (2) I strongly second the recommendation for Dave Ramsey "Total Money Makeover". (3) If you have $250,000 you can find a professional who is a "fiduciary" to work with. They must be a "ficuciary" of you could be put in products not appropriate for you, which give good commissions to the finance person. (4) There is nothing wrong with a good annuity, but they are very complex and good ones are hard to find. There is, however, a type of annuity called a SPIA - basically, you give then X amount of dollars and they give you X amount of dollars a month for life, no matter what happens. They are insurance products and none has defaulted in over 150 years, so you are safe in a SPIA but your rate of return will not be high and you must hold it for about 20 years, on average, to get back what you put in. Without taking a lower rate, if you die, you do not get back what is left of what you put in. Some conservative investors believe they should have an annuity to cover "basics" (house, utilities, gas, food, etc.) and other investments to purchase beyond basics. (5) Do you have a budget? This is important. Know your basic budget and what you can afford to spend beyond that. (6) You cannot know if the market is going to crash. If I were you, I would assume that half of what I have in stocks, and a third of what I have in bonds, **could** disappear and not come back for 8-10 years or so, but that that dire event is under 50 percent probable. Who actually knows how probable? Then I would decide how much I want to risk in order to get investment returns. (7) I might consider putting the rest of my money in TIPS, but I do not use TIPS so you should consult a professional about them. TIPS stands for Treasury Inflation Protected Securities - they go up with inflation but not more than inflation.

True crashes, as opposed to normal market fluctuations, occur when something is fundamentally wrong in the market. These are not hard to spot, it is just that people don't want to see them coming. The tech bubble, the housing bubble, savings and loan crash.Anyone with half a brain could see them coming a year in advance. What do we have to worry about now? For decades the Republicans were for balanced budgets and the Dems were for investment. Then Ragan busted the budget and lowered taxes. Then Trump gave a huge tax break to the rich and lowered taxes, Now,the Dems are spending without raising taxes. That is a recipe for a crash. Average people are spending $500 K for houses. That is unsustainable. Above it all, wealth inequality is out of control 56 Americans own more of the nations wealth than 60% of the total population. Those things have crash written all over them.

Concerning investment. You are old. You need low risk, low fee investments. Don't pay a financial advisor. Educate yourself, then open an account with Vanguard and put your money in a market matching EFT or mutual fund. Safe, good returns, no fees.

The fees charged by a financial advisor eat into your earnings. They make it hard to see the fees they charge, but your money is putting their kids through Stanford.

There is a book about Warren Buffet that is good. He also has an ETF like FUND that is as solid as SPY. It is designated BRKB

There is a book by Somebody(?) Graham that is an all-time classic. It is quite technical.

Yes, AVOID annuities. Run away if some so-called adviser mentions the word!!!!!!!!

Come on Grumpy - my advice is good! Everyone loves your dog.

About 50% BONDS is NOT close to AGGRESSIVE. 90% stocks IS aggressive. You said you did NOT want that!!!!!!

Index Funds
 

Hi Becca - Many people are in the same boat as you. I don't know your age; however, if you are in your 60's, I'm in your ballpark. :) I can tell you that I started investing in the stock market many years ago when I didn't know what the heck that I was doing. Thankfully, I somehow have made quite a bit; and that is with significant losses a few times.

We have most of our investments with a discount broker, Fidelity Investments. I myself have a significant portion of my investments in index funds and ETF's. I think that is something you should consider. I have invested in S&P 500 index fund, balanced index fund (both stocks and bonds), health index fund, NASDAQ ETF. All have done quite well.

You could call Fidelity Investments and talk to a representative there and explain exactly what you have said in your post. They should be able to guide you how to invest. I want to warn you though: I would not recommend their "professionally" managed arm. You pay for that, whether your investments gain or lose.

They will be happy to transfer your money to their company and guide you as to what type of funds in which to invest, depending on your risk tolerance.

Inflation has been non-existent for many recent years. It has ticked up a little recently (from a low base). That's why the market is up big-time. She sounds (to me) like she NEEDS about 15% in stocks. Since she has ACKNOWLEDGED that she is naive (in the market) and open to exploitation by many local brokers.

Most advisors like you to buy INDIVIDUAL stocks so they can make maximum profits and KEEP turning you over!!!!!!

The only thing that may be safer than ETFs for bonds would be maybe(?) GOLD and there is an ETF for that even. I don't think that is necessary in today's economy.

The Village HAD (or may still have) an investment CLUB. I used to go to many of their meetings. Many SMART investors were there SHARING their knowledge. You might be intimidated at first by how advanced they are.