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-   -   Is the market going to crash? (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/investment-talk-158/market-going-crash-320487/)

Stu from NYC 06-11-2021 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimjamuser (Post 1957951)
There is a book by Somebody(?) Graham that is an all-time classic. It is quite technical.

Benjamin

He is a good book to start with

jimjamuser 06-11-2021 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boffin (Post 1957655)
Yes, the market will go down. No one knows when.
No, you should not change your current holdings.
FYI: The average length of a bear market is 289 days, or about 9.6 months. The average length of a bull market is 973 days or about 2.7 years.

I don't think so. I think that Bull markets average 11 years. This current one exceeds that.

Bob G 06-11-2021 02:14 PM

NO advisor has ever beaten the market long term.

jimjamuser 06-11-2021 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zendog3 (Post 1957947)
True crashes, as opposed to normal market fluctuations, occur when something is fundamentally wrong in the market. These are not hard to spot, it is just that people don't want to see them coming. The tech bubble, the housing bubble, savings and loan crash.Anyone with half a brain could see them coming a year in advance. What do we have to worry about now? For decades the Republicans were for balanced budgets and the Dems were for investment. Then Ragan busted the budget and lowered taxes. Then Trump gave a huge tax break to the rich and lowered taxes, Now,the Dems are spending without raising taxes. That is a recipe for a crash. Average people are spending $500 K for houses. That is unsustainable. Above it all, wealth inequality is out of control 56 Americans own more of the nations wealth than 60% of the total population. Those things have crash written all over them.

Concerning investment. You are old. You need low risk, low fee investments. Don't pay a financial advisor. Educate yourself, then open an account with Vanguard and put your money in a market matching EFT or mutual fund. Safe, good returns, no fees.

The fees charged by a financial advisor eat into your earnings. They make it hard to see the fees they charge, but your money is putting their kids through Stanford.

Pretty good post - Zen Doggy Dog. You are correct. The wealth disparity IS the US's greatest and most URGENT problem. That's why people look favorably on the 50s and 1960s when wealth was distributed MOSTLY evenly throughout the middle class. Note: unions were active then and off-shoring had NOT yet started. US society IS on a knife's edge today due to wealth disparity and other factors. The stock market works fine for the upper 10% of America. It CAN work for the middle class, but they MUST be SHARP! Home ownership has NEVER worked for the lower classes so they are volatile in this volatile time. Other US problems are Global Warming and overpopulation! Incidentally, Warren Buffet has warned of the excess population for many years. Check the Wickipedia entry on Buffet about this!

jimjamuser 06-11-2021 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nan27 (Post 1957962)
Hi Becca - Many people are in the same boat as you. I don't know your age; however, if you are in your 60's, I'm in your ballpark. :) I can tell you that I started investing in the stock market many years ago when I didn't know what the heck that I was doing. Thankfully, I somehow have made quite a bit; and that is with significant losses a few times.

We have most of our investments with a discount broker, Fidelity Investments. I myself have a significant portion of my investments in index funds and ETF's. I think that is something you should consider. I have invested in S&P 500 index fund, balanced index fund (both stocks and bonds), health index fund, NASDAQ ETF. All have done quite well.

You could call Fidelity Investments and talk to a representative there and explain exactly what you have said in your post. They should be able to guide you how to invest. I want to warn you though: I would not recommend their "professionally" managed arm. You pay for that, whether your investments gain or lose.

They will be happy to transfer your money to their company and guide you as to what type of funds in which to invest, depending on your risk tolerance.

I agree with THAT post. Just 2 or so ETFs are all that is NEEDED.

jimjamuser 06-11-2021 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC (Post 1957975)
Benjamin

He is a good book to start with

Thank you Stu !!!!!

PugMom 06-11-2021 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by retiredguy123 (Post 1957498)
You shouldn't have all your money in stocks. It should be more like 30 percent stocks, 30 percent intermediate term bonds, and 40 percent cash (money market fund). But, the way to change it is to do it over a long period, like about 2 years. So, take 70 percent of the account, divide by 24 months, and transfer that amount every month into an intermediate term bond fund (like the Vanguard total bond market index fund) and a money market fund (Vanguard MM fund). So, in 2 years, you will have a conservative, balanced portfolio. That is the way I would do it.

what he said--excellent info. there are stocks that will always earn $$ no matter what the climate is in the country

Janie123 06-11-2021 04:16 PM

The market is like a roller coaster and the only ones that get hurt are the ones who jump off. Read The Total Money Makeover by Dave Ramsey

rustyp 06-11-2021 05:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jsapen@mindspring.com (Post 1958035)
The market is like a roller coaster and the only ones that get hurt are the ones who jump off. Read The Total Money Makeover by Dave Ramsey

Dave Ramsey - shock jock

I retired at 52 yrs old. Doing fine without "financial advisors" at 17 years latter. One must ask themselves why am I listening to you when I'm living the golden lifestyle and you are still hawking. Dave Ramsey is no spring chicken. Oh but he loves what he does. Really watch his demeanor.

wmcgowan 06-11-2021 05:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Becca9800 (Post 1957495)
I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.

Go see Edelman Financial and get an appraisal on/of your situation:
Talk With One of Our Financial Advisors. No Cost. No Obligation

Tom52 06-11-2021 05:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimjamuser (Post 1957976)
I don't think so. I think that Bull markets average 11 years. This current one exceeds that.

A bear market is defined as a drop of at least 20% from recent highs of major indexes DOW or S&P. This happened most recently in March thru August 2020, so this bull market is not yet a year old.

wmcgowan 06-11-2021 05:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Becca9800 (Post 1957518)
Can you recommend a book, please?

The Truth About Money:
Access to this page has been denied.

DAVES 06-11-2021 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wmcgowan (Post 1958063)
Go see Edelman Financial and get an appraisal on/of your situation:
Talk With One of Our Financial Advisors. No Cost. No Obligation

You get nothin for nothin. Some never learn that. Took me two times. One was free stamps that used to be on matchbook covers. The other was free land in Florida.
I did get the stamps and I did spend a few bucks with them for the FREE STAMPS.

Land in Florida, that was amusing. The scams were all over the place for land that was literally underwater. They were hounding me until my dad told them the truth I was like 13 at the time and my allowance was ????? somewhere between a quarter or a dollar per week.

The information you give them, age, net worth, where your money is now and how much
you have is worth a fortune to them. It is amusing, spell your name slightly wrong and you will be able to have an idea about where they sell your should PRIVATE INFORMATION.

DAVES 06-11-2021 07:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rustyp (Post 1958045)
Dave Ramsey - shock jock

I retired at 52 yrs old. Doing fine without "financial advisors" at 17 years latter. One must ask themselves why am I listening to you when I'm living the golden lifestyle and you are still hawking. Dave Ramsey is no spring chicken. Oh but he loves what he does. Really watch his demeanor.

Not in my league. Warren Buffet, often listed as the greatest stock picker. The guy is 86 years old. He regularly says he buys for long term. Does he have a different actuarial table than the rest of us?

DAVES 06-11-2021 07:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimjamuser (Post 1957981)
Pretty good post - Zen Doggy Dog. You are correct. The wealth disparity IS the US's greatest and most URGENT problem. That's why people look favorably on the 50s and 1960s when wealth was distributed MOSTLY evenly throughout the middle class. Note: unions were active then and off-shoring had NOT yet started. US society IS on a knife's edge today due to wealth disparity and other factors. The stock market works fine for the upper 10% of America. It CAN work for the middle class, but they MUST be SHARP! Home ownership has NEVER worked for the lower classes so they are volatile in this volatile time. Other US problems are Global Warming and overpopulation! Incidentally, Warren Buffet has warned of the excess population for many years. Check the Wickipedia entry on Buffet about this!

Much of what we think and remember is simply false or at least not MY reality. I was born in 1950. My dad was a wounded WWII COMBAT vet who did two tours of duty in the Philippines. He was one of less than 50 guys in his original battalion, roughly 600 men, to survive WWII.

My parents according to our press raise me wrong. I was taught you work for what you need and what you want. My parents helped to pay for my college education. I worked through college and at summer jobs and paid the rest. On graduation. planning on taking time off I got a note from the bank congratulations on your graduation, you first loan payment is due, if I recall it was in two months. In today's dollars I owed 91,000.
Real number 13,000 x 7.

I was an overnight success, it only took me 45 years if hard work and savings. There is no shortage of opportunity.

Envy, thought that someone else owes you. It is of far more value to learn how others succeeded rather than wasting time trying to justify stealing what others have produced.

Re: global warming, over population.
More sad typical thought Since 1950 the year of my birth the population has roughly doubled 180 million to 350 million today. Blacks were 6% of the population Today 13%
roughly four times.

Sadly typical politically correct mind control. The thought is not what I can, what I should do but what someone else should do.

The evil 1% so often parroted. Sadly TYPICAL hate tactics. Unite the mindless MOB against 1%. Well you still have hope that 99% will parrot your HATE and vote for you.

Hate is a powerful mindless tool. It has been used successfully throughout history.
Interesting reality. Hitler in his insane HATE said the Jews were the route of all evil.
United in HATE his people followed him. Few objected. Everyone want to be in the in group. Children were most easily influenced. The numbers are interesting. Hitler and his people murdered half the Jews in Europe. Being great at record keeping we know 6 million Jews were murdered. Simple math so there were 12 million Jews in Europe.
In 1945 the population of Europe was 450 million people. Jews were thus 5% of the population.

Hum same exact tactics 1% vs 5% is the problem.

The numbers were we to take everything the top 1% have. Send them to the ovens as Hitler did, it would not pay half of our current national debt.

valuemkt 06-11-2021 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Becca9800 (Post 1957509)
See that's how ignorant I am, I don't even use the correct verbiage. I lumped it all as 'in the stock market'. I have to admit that I'm embarrassed. My aggressive retirement portfolio is 46.77% bonds, 27.47% stocks and 25.76% cash/stable value. Given that new info, what say you? Am I on a stable path to preserve my savings?

An allocation such as yours would not be called an AGGRESSIVE Portfolio, regardless of your age. If, as you say, this is your complete savings (save perhaps your house), it might actually be called too conservative. An "old" rule of thumb had a 60% stock / 40% bond allocation for retirees, others had percentages based upon your age... eg if you were 70, maybe only 30% stocks, 80 - 20% STOCKS.. But that was when you could get a decent amount of interest on fixed income investments (bond like) and also do something called Laddered CDs, whereby you could also get a decent amount of interest by purchasing bank certificates of deposit with varying maturities.

Are you currently protected on the downside ? Yes.. Let's say this account is today worth $ 100,000. (The numbers are the same with $1 million or 10million). That means you have $27,500 invested in stocks. If the stock market totally crashed and went down 50%, your account value would "only" be down $ 13,750, since the bulk of it isnt affected by stock market turbulence. If anything, however, you can be a victim of inflation, as neither your bonds nor your cash . stable value yield much more than zero. If we do have a surge in inflation, your bond portfolio would most likely go down as well, as interest rates would rise, causing bond prices to fall. You might want to consider a "fee only" financial planner.. someone that IS NOT a stock broker that can assess your financial situation.. eg current course and speed, will you outlive your portfolio (bad) or will your portfolio outlive you (better). They will be able to put your spending and savings into perspective so that you will be able to Sleep well at night (SWAN) knowing that your financial affairs are in good order.

lgordon013 06-11-2021 08:29 PM

Stock Market Crash
 
The best advice that can be given to you is 1) talk to friends and see who they use or 2) utilize the services of a Mutual Fund Company like Fidelity or Vanguard. Both have online information to learn about the stock market and also they have advisors that you can talk with. There happens to be a Fidelity office in Lake Sumter. Your money is too precious to take advice from non professionals.

jimhurtt@twc.com 06-11-2021 10:39 PM

Becca: in my opinion that is an excellent allocation of your allocation. Rule of thumb is your age should determine percentage. For example if you are 65 years old then 65% of your holdings should be in what would be considered safe investments, i.e. bonds, money market, etc.. The other 35% could be placed in stocks so you could some short term growth potential.

Toymeister 06-12-2021 06:06 AM

Becca,
I would study the best practices of large 401k (403b) and mimic those plans.

The largest in the world and best 401k plan has all of its allocation plans for all age targeted plans on line by asset class.

You can view it on Home | Thrift Savings Plan. The thrift savings plan was started in 1984 when Federal employees were shifted from a solid pension plan to a weak one with a 401k. It is free of all political influence. The other element of success for TSP is low operating cost. Vanguard investments comes the closest to this commercially

Miriam2940 06-12-2021 06:06 AM

Get advice
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Becca9800 (Post 1957495)
I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.

You DO need someone who is knowledgeable about investments. I recommend Senior Financial, a small firm who takes an interest in helping you stay afloat for the rest of your life. I was in the same boat, I knew little about stocks and the stock market. My husband handled all that but now he was gone and I was clueless. They really helped. Jean Darrell owns the firm but my advisor is Josh Cruz, the phone number is 866-829-3337
Good luck!

J1ceasar 06-12-2021 06:15 AM

Actually many dividend stocks can lose a lot of value and cut their dividends so I would be extremely careful and even if you only have 20% in stocks make sure it's spread it around to at least 10 different stocks or wanted to good mutual funds or spiders

J1ceasar 06-12-2021 06:19 AM

More ideas
 
As many people have said you probably have a pretty good allocation depending on your age quantity of money and if you have other retirement benefits. I would say if you're living in The villages and you have SS and the money in the bank you're doing okay. There are many other risks as you approach older age as I say including debilitating diseases and long-term healthcare in a home. Both you can buy insurance for but it will be very expensive today probably at your senior age. The other thing you don't talk about is if you have good children. And I mean good. Sons and daughters that will come visit you or take you in if you get dementia or reach your late 90s and need day by day help. These are things I don't worry about as I know I have three great children as well as a wife. There are many people that marry somebody 10 or 20 years younger for this reason. If you have a lot of capital I wouldn't necessarily do this but it's just another thought.

Malsua 06-12-2021 06:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimhurtt@twc.com (Post 1958156)
Becca: in my opinion that is an excellent allocation of your allocation. Rule of thumb is your age should determine percentage. For example if you are 65 years old then 65% of your holdings should be in what would be considered safe investments, i.e. bonds, money market, etc.. The other 35% could be placed in stocks so you could some short term growth potential.

Age is really a bad way to set your allocation. I realize this prior "method" was simply a surrogate for Health and risk tolerance but it is a poor investment strategy. There are sickly 50 year olds and healthy 80 year olds. There are rich 50 year olds and poor 80 year olds and the opposite.

If you can weather a market correction and you can live without your retirement funds age adjusting your asset into bonds, which have not performed much at all in recent years, means you're just leaving money on the table and probably actually losing money due to inflation.

The same goes for money market/cash. If you need the liquid assets, fair enough, keep in there what you need but if you don't, put it somewhere it's going to earn. There are fairly conservative mutual funds that consistently return 4-6% even in flat and bear markets.

It's a risk/reward calculation and basing it on age without factoring in a lot of other details of your life and needs doesn't do anyone any good.

There is no question you should go more conservative with age, this issue is how much and 35% in growth for a healthy 65YO is bad, as is 50% in stocks for a sickly 50YO.

meridian5850 06-12-2021 07:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dshoberg (Post 1957817)
The Truth About Money by Ric Edelman is a very good educational reference to understanding money....


I agree and we refer to this book from time to time. Have read several of his books. Very easy to read and understand. Ric does a good job explaining things.

Laurel Maryland 06-12-2021 08:33 AM

I found this book helpful: "The 5 Mistakes Every Investor Makes and How to Avoid Them. Getting Investing Right." by Peter Mallouk, JD.MBA. Publisher is Wiley Publications

Becca9800 06-12-2021 09:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DAVES (Post 1957881)
Aggressive retirement portfolio. Sound to me like you are in a retirement date fund where they re balance based on your age. Your numbers 46.77 bonds, 27.47 bonds 25.76% cash. You have or should have or can get a statement of what you hold.
Might be interesting to run it through Morningstar fund x-ray, it is FREE and see what they say about your allocation. It should be close to what you say your allocation is.

Hi DAVES! I ran my holdings thru the Morningstar fund x-ray. NOTE: nearly 26% of my total investments are in Lincoln's Stable Value Account, no ticker symbol(it's an annuity :shocked:), and I don't know how the Morningstar assessment was affected by not including 1/4 of my holdings.

Asset Allocation: Your portfolio is moderately risky.
Diversification: Your overall portfolio style: Core. For most investors, maintaining such broad-based market exposure is a prudent way to invest.
Fees & Expenses: The mutual funds in your portfolio tend to have very low expense ratios.
World Regions: You have a fairly healthy stake in foreign stocks.

Thanks for the suggestion to take that look!

To All, again a big thanks for the opinions and gentle prods. I have more knowledge today than I did 2 days ago (reading until my eyes crossed) but still have a looooonnng way to go. Thanks again, very appreciated!

SERENITY52 06-12-2021 09:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Becca9800 (Post 1957495)
I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.

I heard a rule of thumb is to keep your age as a percentage in conservative sectors

bp243 06-12-2021 10:02 AM

Investments
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Becca9800 (Post 1957495)
I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.

According to my CFP advisor, the rule of thumb for investments is to consider your age which takes into account the possibility of a crash. Based on 100, if you are 70 then 70% of your $ should be in as safe a place as possible (money markets, bank, etc). The other 30% can be in stocks, bonds and other more volatile choices. A correction will typically happen often, although a true crash takes years to recover which is why the rule of thumb seems to work.

retiredguy123 06-12-2021 10:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Becca9800 (Post 1958406)
Hi DAVES! I ran my holdings thru the Morningstar fund x-ray. NOTE: nearly 26% of my total investments are in Lincoln's Stable Value Account, no ticker symbol(it's an annuity :shocked:), and I don't know how the Morningstar assessment was affected by not including 1/4 of my holdings.

Asset Allocation: Your portfolio is moderately risky.
Diversification: Your overall portfolio style: Core. For most investors, maintaining such broad-based market exposure is a prudent way to invest.
Fees & Expenses: The mutual funds in your portfolio tend to have very low expense ratios.
World Regions: You have a fairly healthy stake in foreign stocks.

Thanks for the suggestion to take that look!

To All, again a big thanks for the opinions and gentle prods. I have more knowledge today than I did 2 days ago (reading until my eyes crossed) but still have a looooonnng way to go. Thanks again, very appreciated!

If 26 percent of your 403B account is in an annuity, that is even more reason to transfer the money to an personal IRA with Vanguard or Fidelity. You should be able to cash out the 403B, get rid of the annuity, and take control of your own money. But, make sure Vanguard or Fidelity does a direct transfer with no income tax consequences.

Becca9800 06-12-2021 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by retiredguy123 (Post 1958449)
If 26 percent of your 403B account is in an annuity, that is even more reason to transfer the money to an personal IRA with Vanguard or Fidelity. You should be able to cash out the 403B, get rid of the annuity, and take control of your own money. But, make sure Vanguard or Fidelity does a direct transfer with no income tax consequences.

Retiredguy123, that was exactly the response I knew I'd get from you and a few others, hence the shocked eyes when confessing to the holding! I absolutely will follow your advice. I've been reading about annuities and everything you and the others wrote was backed up. Now I'm going to stop beating myself for my ignorance, I also read that many did just what I did, make regular contributions and let someone else manage the investments. But now it's more important to me that I know where my money is. Somewhere along the way I got old enough to retire, I didn't think it would happen so fast. I appreciate all your advice and the time you took to pass it along. Thank you!!

PugMom 06-12-2021 01:11 PM

i got the exact opposite from his message. much food for thought can't be disposed of so quickly

dewilson58 06-15-2021 07:23 AM

What Crash????
 
Full Speed Ahead.

Heavily invested in stocks.

Rock 'n Roll

2021 Midyear Outlook | Wells Fargo Investment Institute

CoachKandSportsguy 06-25-2021 09:15 AM

Depends upon the definition of crash. . . hyperbole for sure!
5% correction by the end of the year definitely.
10% correction by year end, probably,
20% correction, maybe,
30% correction not likely but probability is never zero

So, now, what are you going to do at each level, based upon your age, your financial needs and your financial assets?

If you don't know, then you need a CFP for some guidance as to your own personal situation. . . which is not a TOTV place to educate yourself.

good luck


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