Where Florida's spike is coming from
 

Appears we have a spike in cases here in Florida. So I took a look at the Florida Dashboard county report to see where it's happening. The spike started on June 12.

Almost 70% of the new cases on June 12 came from 7 counties with Dade, Palm Beach, Broward, Hillsborough, and Orange counties racking up the highest numbers.

The average time from exposure to symptoms of covid 19 is 5-6 days. Huge protests for George Floyd took place on the weekend of June 5-6, and some of the largest ones were in these counties. Although it is harder to catch the virus outdoors, epidemiologists say that chanting and screaming expel more virus, exactly what happens in protests. They were packed together pretty tight in the larger protests.

Sumter County had no protests, and have had only 5 new cases in the last 9 days.
Marion County did have a protest, not thousands but several hundred, and they had a mini spike of 10 cases on June 12.

It's kind of funny that we still can't have fans at golf tournaments but many officials and even health departments gave their blessing to the protests, saying it was "too important"

Most of the media will try to blame reopening too early as cause of the spike, it was amazing how they switched from covid 19 24/7 to George Floyd 24/7

You can take a look at the Florida county data here:

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_pa...rts_latest.pdf

Incubation period is UP TO 14 days. The George Floyd protests didn't occur "up to 14 days" ago. Also, those counties have had the most cases from the beginning, this is just more of the same.

In addition, it was around the same period of time (up to 14 days ago) that the Governor relaxed restrictions on staying home.

I'm sure the protests contributed to the added cases. But there would've been a new wave of cases, ESPECIALLY in the above-mentioned counties, even if there were no protests.

We'll be able to draw a more informed conclusion as to whether the spike is attributable to the Floyd protests or the reopening a little later. If the percent positive on the state's Covid-19 dashboard goes down steadily after about June 19-20, it will be a pretty good indication the upsurge was due to the protests...and will not bode well for starting up concerts again.

However, if the numbers do come down in a week or so, the stock market and the rest of the country will breathe a sigh of relief that the reopening wasn't as ill-advised as some thought. That is, until the next wave in the fall.

Coronavirus symptoms start about five days after exposure, Johns Hopkins study finds
The median incubation period of COVID-19 from exposure to the onset of symptoms is 5.1 days

Coronavirus symptoms start about five days after exposure, Johns Hopkins study finds | Hub

New cases in Dade County were 517 on June 12. During the 2 weeks prior to that date they were ranging from 200-300 so no, this was a big spike and not "more of the same"

Covid 19 Numbers
 

A concern I have is whether we really know how many Covid-19 case there are in the Villages. Absent of broad testing we really don't know the percentages of the number of cases vs total population. Without proper testing we have no knowledge as to how many residents are asymptomatic and should be in any statistics? The question then is why we don't have broad testing within the villages. Not a few days on the Polo Fields or in Leesburg but regular on going testing in the villages. I mentioned this concern to a friend and the responses was "what impact do you think it would have on the sale of homes if it was advertised there were increases in the Virus in the Villages"? That was the first and most sensible answer I have received. Given the average resident is within the high risk group it did not make any sense to not have regular serious testing within the Villages!! We have elected to keep the current rules as the way to go until there are more realiable numbers regarding the percentages and exposures we face. As an aside I know at least one Medical Group will test if
you qualify to be tested. That is not what I mean. I mean regular broad testing by the Government, etc. for this high risk area.

I don't think your assumptions are correct. If a protester gets infected, he may show symptoms 5-6 days later or he may be asymptomatic. Either way, he can infect others he has contact with, and then they take 5-6 days to show symptoms. And so on.

Be interesting to see how this shakes out.

This has been going on for more than 2 months. Most people in TV are 65 plus and if they get so much as the sniffles, they are going to get tested. If there was a large scale infection of Villagers we would know about it by now.

The current spike now is most likely from Memorial day weekend. Numbers in the coming next 2 weeks are most likely from the protests and more things opening up.

You may be right about exponential spread. But I'm leaning toward your side, GoodLife (if I'm interpreting your "side" correctly) - I tend to think the uptick is because of the protests, or at least I'm curious to find out. What data do you think we need then, and when, to identify the protests as the cause of the upsurge, if indeed any data will point to the protests as the cause?

Or, in your opinion, will the cause of the uptick forever remain unknown, and your message is merely to point to Florida's population centers, rather than an event, to explain the upsurge?

Blackbird. Said in such a complete and logical way without any fat, posturing or hate showing that I can't imagine anyone alive not agreeing with your comment unless they only care about themselves and always have. Facts are wonderful. It ruins the ability to lie to yourself and have to endure the demons that haunt you when you can't sleep at night.

Well put and we all thank you.

Lake county also had a raise in cases.

Agree

I disagree. How can it be acceptable to gather in large groups, not wearing your precious masks, especially in areas with the highest concentration of the virus? As it is said, “ Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me” The country and state listened to the “ Experts”, ( wrong at least 50% of the time) in March. All should never let it happen again. Bottom line, spike is from protesters .

This page also has a lot of data. Enter county at upper right, then click tabs across the bottom.
Experience