Where is the Bottom to Dow Jones?
 

I was wondering if anyone has any insight to where Dow Jones bottom will be? Does anyone know?

My investment broker doesn't really know but is saying a loss of 35% is bottom. As usual, investment brokers are saying that long term investors should stay calm and not miss the upswing.

As of yesterday, the market was 1400 points above when Trump took office, (please, no political commentary).

I am staying put as I missed the downturn and don't want to miss the upswing. I timed the last downswing during last market upheaval and it turned out great.

17,650

16,405

We should do a poll, winner gets...nothing.

15660

No.

How low??????
 

10,000

That's the million dollar question

I think OP was being facetious.

16,406 From years of watching the Price Is Right! :1rotfl:

Its down there with the GBP:USD FX.

2 weeks ago we put down our 20% deposit. Since then as a result of FX our home has risen $45k, and if it hits £1:$1 our hone will cost us $100k more...

So sell $ now at 1.15 and buy them back later when the return to 1.29.... We hope........god we hope it returns in the next 12 weeks

I am not selling in fact i am considering converting my bonds into equities.

Obviously no one knows, but around 11,800 would represent a 60% sell off from the highs and would be about what happened during the Great Depression. I am not saying that’s what will happen, but that’s probably an absolute worst case scenario.

My WAG is the absolute bottom will end up being around 17,500, but that will be in about a month from now...after the peak of cases/deaths is reached.

I'm also guessing, that because of the emergency stimulus' that are being reviewed/enacted, it will yo-yo in the next few weeks and even get back up to around +-22,000...before that April bottom is reached.

Since it's all a guess anyway, and my kids will eventually be the beneficiaries of the good/bad choices I've made, it will be interesting to revisit this thread...around tax time. :ho:

I'm just glad now that I decided not to be greedy around Christmas of 2018 when it dropped, then rose back to just below 26,000...and moved about 75% of my investments into mostly cash, cash equivalents and treasuries.

Of course, the other 25% predicated by FOMO...has taken a butt kickin'. :(

Only The Shadow knows...

Yes we all know where the bottom is but we are not sharing.

If U wait for the bottom you'll likely miss it, U can do several small buys on the way down
at the mini dips.
Always down averaging along the way.

Last time I took advice of a broker was '86 '87 told me buying a margin will make a lot of $$
Don't ask how that worked out :ohdear:

the bottom of the DJA was yesterday because I cashed out all my stocks at the opening bell. Voila, Dow tanks early so I lost even more, and ended up +188. I did this as a public service because historically, I move the markets. Buy and the markets fall, sell and the markets rise. No applause please.

The mainstream media likes to quote the Dow, as they are generally lazy and don't have to do any real reporting and it's easy. The real question is not when the Dow will rebound, but what great stocks are now on sale. For instance, Apple Computer, one of the best performing tech stocks ever, is now on sale at $247 a share, down from about $330 just a month ago. Yes, it may go down some more in the near future, but does anyone really believe that it's heyday is over? Not me. I'm dollar cost averaging my way back into this market, and Apple is on the top of my list.

Unfortunately nobody really knows so hang tight it will get better

I’m predicting two lows. The first will be directly related to the virus which I think will bottom at about 17500. The markets will start to recover but then the economic impacts will surface maybe 1-2 qtrs later sending the market down again. 13000-15000 depending on how long and how much more is shut down. IMHO

As low as it is right now, it’s probably a good time to buy, but only stocks that are guaranteed not to go BK. The futures are up 600 points already today, but I believe it will be up a bunch by fall.

Lol
 

Winner gets...toilet paper 🧻 I have a roll I can spare for such a valuable endeavor LOL

If they don't have strong balance sheets they may not survive.

the weak ones may borrow $$ but when they need to pay it back............:pray:

Dow will bottom when COVID19 is demonstrably under control. Negative economic impact that will follow is likely already factored into today's depressed value.

Love your greyhound! We have an IG!

If 1.5 trillion in aid don't stop the fall-there is no bottom.

if it don't they'll get more

kinda on topic. I did not want to miss this 'downturn'. I have had a relatively large (for me) sum of liquid $$$ in Synchrony Bank, for emergencies, easy to access $$$ if cash if required. A week ago I decided getting (now) 1.8% was unwise considering the potential of great returns in the Market, eventually.

Contacted my investment guy - we invested 30% of that cash into American funds, Growth Fund and Small Cap World Fund. Both should provide a great return WHEN the Market makes the vertical move. Bought when the Dow was about 20,600. I will probably do the same $$$ move next week.

Little doubt the US Market will skyrocket later this year (if not earlier) - we may be back at 29,000 Dow in a year.

It's 'my kid's' money anyway... you know...

kinda on topic. I did not want to miss this 'downturn'. I have had a relatively large (for me) sum of liquid $$$ in Synchrony Bank, for emergencies, easy to access $$$ if cash if required. A week ago I decided getting (now) 1.8% was unwise considering the potential of great returns in the Market, eventually.

Contacted my investment guy - we invested 30% of that cash into American funds, Growth Fund and Small Cap World Fund. Both should provide a great return WHEN the Market makes the vertical move. Bought when the Dow was about 20,600. I will probably do the same $$$ move next week.

Little doubt the US Market will skyrocket later this year (if not earlier) - we may be back at 29,000 Dow in a year.

It's 'my kid's' money anyway... you know...

Winner should get a 2 month supply of TP and hand sanitizer!!

Remember it took 108 years to get to 10,000 and only twenty days to lose 10,000

That's my line buy when I sell, sell when I buy, you'll be rich. I went to cash at 20K. I'll probably get back in late summer at the same point on its way back up.

0 is the true bottom but it will never get there.

If I had pulled out all my money a month ago, I would put it all back into the same mutual funds now. I’m kicking myself that I didn’t.

We'll know well after it's actually hit bottom, starts coming back up and stays up.

I rebalance quarterly so will be buying more index fund equities soon to get my AA back into balance.

Thank you Villagers for sharing your wisdom. This was one of the best posts that I have yet to read.

The DOW
 

The Dow is just a barometer of a few leading stocks. Worry about your own stock holdings which could have an entirely different trajectory.

If any of you watch Cramer at 6 Mad Money

That's exactly what he says.

Also doesn't like funds etf's etc.

Buy gold & silver commodities. SDBuillion.com

The reason why it is very difficult to time the bottom of the market is that, when it hits bottom, the event that caused stocks to go down is already over. The stock market reacts to anticipated future events that may or may not occur. If the event doesn't occur, then the market goes back up. If the event does occur, then it is too late to sell your stocks. Often, when a recession hits, the stock market is already on the way up because the market anticipated the recession in advance and has already bottomed out. So, you have to be able to predict the future to time the stock market.