The BIG question
 

Recognizing that no one can accurately predict the future, we're still interested in the opinion's of those that have been here a while to see if it would be better to purchase say by the end of June or wait until around November to see what this nasty virus does to the home-buying in The Villages.

After renting a couple of times now (up by Glenview and Sabel Chase area), we'll be looking primarily north of 466A (even though we know the bridges will go in soon) so was curious as to the price and demand in the older sections versus the new homes on the other side of the freeway.

All guesses appreciated.

Some articles I saw recently indicated prices were holding steady (nationally), which I cannot believe. I think there was an article recently that we were doing better. I am waiting for the next shoe to drop, the high (very high) unemployment and the associated secondary effects. There have been several articles indicting we are in (or will be very shortly) a recession.
So here is what I think, if you are buying for profit you should probably wait to see what happens, if you are buying for enjoyment, life is too short, go for it.

Buy at the end of June. Look for a house that has been on the market for more than 30 days, and make an offer. Housing values and appreciation have been too high over the past 5 years. Way more than the inflation rate.

Thanks for your thoughts.

I agree about the potential for a recession, which is the only reason we haven't already bought. In fact, instead of just paying cash for the house we are also thinking of taking out a partial mortgage in case the stock market tanks big time, which that extra money could then be invested. That would give us even more money to play with, so the kids will have a bigger inheritance when the time comes. Particularly since home mortgages are at record lows right now and it wouldn't take much return from stocks, to come out way ahead in the long run going in that direction.

This will definitely be our last home and as we heard many times from the full-time residents when we rented, I guess that will officially make us "frogs."

I still have one of those Magic 8 Balls. Not even it could answer your question :icon_wink:

My Ouija board couldn't either

Yeah, thinking about a large recession is what's weighing on our minds.

Although this will be our last home and that will make us one of those frog couples we met when renting have told us about, it might also be an opportunity to invest when the markets are substantially down.

Which has us also thinking about taking out a partial mortgage instead of paying all cash, given the interest rates are so low and the extra money could then go into stocks as a bonus for the kids when that time comes.

Anyway, I appreciate your thoughts.

I think it is better to "wait until around November to see what this nasty virus does to the home-buying in The Villages".

I think a lot of people are living in a dream world and they pretend everything will be back to normal in a few weeks. By November they will accept the facts of life and not be so eager to make a large purchase like a car or a house. That may lead to a decrease in prices.

FYI Real estate traditionally lags the stock market by quite a while. Example - Market bottomed 2009 The Villages property values bottomed Jan 2012.

You have the funds, you find the house..............BUY IT.

That is the way we are leaning right now. I guess the next 30 days or so, will tell if opening things up now was a good idea or takes us back close to the starting line.

By the time November rolls around a lot of people don’t put their homes on the market because they’re renting them if they haven’t sold them by then ...so then you wait till the following year to see what is put up for sale after the high season of rentals. My advice would be to buy now. You’re not going to get some bargain basement just because you wait till November. It won’t make much difference in price ...this is gonna be a short term downturn in the economy and it’ll be back....

For us, there is no such thing as "the house."

We actually currently rent where we are now, having sold last year a large, beautiful home that not much here can touch, so we're moving for the lifestyle (and warmer weather), not the house.

In other words, we have already seen a number of homes that we could easily live with, so finding something acceptable will not be a problem for us.

My point is Nike.................Jus Do It.

whoooo hooooo !

I don’t see why house prices would decrease in TV because of the virus. The same number of people still need to live somewhere. Most of the owners are retired and not employed in the first place. We did not lose any significant number of people to death. The place is one of the safest from crime and virus in the country. In a few months all the fun will be back our amenities can buy. A lot of people will still need to retire from all over. People are chomping at the bit to rent or own here. So why would the home prices in TV decrease?

I think they will decrease because they are artifically high as compared to 5 years ago. Why would a house that cost $400K in 2015 be worth $600-650K in 2020? The inflation rate is nowhere near that high. Also, potential buyers have lost money in their investments, and they will not be willing to spend as much on a house, especially when the future is so uncertain. So, I believe that sellers will need to accept a lower profit on their house. But, nobody really knows.

This PLUS the fact as some owners pass on, their families/estates that will inherit the place will probably want to liquidate.
Facts are MOST folks here will not be "looking to have to live somewhere else" when their home becomes vacant. For those of us living in age restricted communities, this is just a fact of life. We bought at the high end of the market, but for us it is irrelevant, as what is left to the kiddos is left to the kiddos, be it more or less. We bought what we wanted and will enjoy until it becomes an estate asset for our kids. I too would wait and catch the wave action, UNLESS you want to move down and enjoy now specifically, and then the option is yours to enjoy based on desire. None of us is promised tomorrow.

I have noticed more houses on the market north of 466A than previously. I have NO data to back that observation up but it seems that way to me.

I’ve own 14 new homes , I would never put more then 20% down even if I planned on staying in a house , use the money for whatever else you choose, let the house go up in value even during a downtime your house will eventually turn a profit.

IF I was in your shoes, I would wait this out.

Housing prices in tv
 

There are always two sides to every economic valuation, supply and demand. You are only looking at the demand side of the equation. There is also the supply side

Current Demand issues:
The simplifying assumption of "Most of the owners are retired and not employed in the first place." may not quite hold up as thought. Most people relocating are coming from an existing job. Potential retirees laid off unexpectedly, and have to draw down their nest egg/potential down payment, which will reduce the potential demand on the size of the house. Current house prices are falling, albeit slowly at the moment, so people wanting a certain price on their existing home to move will have to wait longer. Current housing sales are slower, so if the potential TV retiree can't sell their house as quickly as anticipated, sales will slow in TV, causing the developer cash flow issues.

Current Supply / Developer issues:
The developer has had quite a few custom homes purchasers back out of the contractor, forfeiting their deposit. There are houses owned by the developer down $75K from the initial sale price. The developer is paying interest or forgoing future home development on the unsold, high end house just sitting there.

Finally, some people are conflating recent past housing sales trends with future sales trends. No doubt the housing sales / pricing / demand in the future from the virus will be affected by the economic recovery, or lack of one. We are effectively only two months into the lockdown created recession, and the economic effects are really yet to be understood. Most recent housing sales trend reports haven't been effected by the virus due to the purchase to loan cycle being one to two months and primarily centered around employment changes. Some banks are now pulling out of the housing loan markets due to the uncertainty of the fiscal support and the uncertainty of the recession.

So although the last housing cycle bust was 10 years ago, this event is completely outside the banking industry failures and self inflicted collapse, so the recovery will be completely different than 2008-2009, as will the depth of the collapse, if there is one.

Keep an open mind and adapt to the changing economics, which may be hard to do outside the industry.

sportsguy's opinion

Rent money is wasted money...
 

If you are ready to occupy the new home, you should buy and move in.
You would "profit" by not wasting rent output of thousands (assuming you are renting as posh as you imply you were living) per month.

I would just point out that the entire U.S. economy is collapsing. The Government has already spent $3 trillion to try to hold it together. Why wouldn't house prices in The Villages decline? Buying a house in this economy is risky.

If you listen to the "experts" we are about to enter either a recession or a mini-depression with 20-25% unemployment and a drop in GDP of 20%. Does that sound like a time to buy? Or would you take a chance on waiting until the markets have a chance to digest what is said to be coming?

You are looking to buy a pre-owned house. The only question is whether someone will be selling. I'd take a chance and buy after the reality of this economic situation hits people.

We live on Day Lily Run in the V. of Duval. We have quick access to both Brownwood and Lake Sumter. The house is a Gardenia, in great condition without too much done so you can do your own decorating. It is on the lower end because the people have purchased another smaller place. The address is 2652 Day Lily Run. The neighborhood is fantastic socially and all of the homes are $$$. The asking price is $324+.

if rusty's correct, there's still a drop coming in home $$,,, i think the same - rising tides lift all boats & the opposite's also true

Normally there would be a price reduction during the summer, but after quarantining in this event, anyone close to retirement will do so and there will be a ton of people looking to get out of major cities...looking to buy in FLA. and likely here. I think the demand may outstrip supply, do prices go up...substantially. This guess will be enhanced if there is social unrest.

Wow, you are still willing to do without so that your adult kids will have an inheritance???

I invite you to move on to the next phase of life...live your life...your job raising the kids is over

We put all 5 through college on our dime, bought them cars, paid for the weddings, helped them get on their own feet....job done! Actually made a new house rule that kids are welcome for dinner anytime, but only grandchildren can sleep over...they laughed, but didn't push back

Our 5 know that IF there is anything left after we've enjoyed having the best possible time of our lives anything remaining is theirs...but they'd rather listen to the stories we tell them about our adventures


now, new vs. preowned in TV

Many of the 'pre-owned' homes are in great shape, however many will require substantial $$$ to renovate. Having contracted for renovations in FL and in the northeast I will say that there is no comparison...things are really different in FL (and not always in a good way so be very careful choosing a contractor in FL)

If you go new you're also going to spend money...we went new designer home and have spent 50K in upgrades with local contractors over the past 3 years

We had a small mortgage when we 1st bought here....once we no longer were itemizing our taxes we just paid it off...okay so cash reserves went down, however monthly expenses also went down

Nobody can predict the future with accuracy, however in the past home prices in TV seem to be insulated to an extend from what was going on everywhere else

Good luck...you've got some serious decisions to make...I hope it all works out for you

Suggest you buy in the newer areas and purchase a new home
A new home lets you design it and pick out all the fixtures
The increase in prices in Fenney, both new and resale have increased in value beyond expectations and the same is true in the other areas being built
Everything is new including your neighbors

Regardless of when we purchase, we won't be moving to TV until fall as the summer is great up here. We did rent during the month of August one of the times, so as to get an idea of whether we could even handle the heat and humidity.

As to your belief that rent is wasted, not only are we in a much more modest house than we sold right now, I also don't have to worry about any of the maintenance, taxes, upkeep, Etc.

There are a number of books that have analyzed the difference between owning and renting for the last 30 years or so and was surprised as to how important it was as to when you purchased, when you sold and capital investments needed on the home, as to whether renting was always a money losing proposition over owning.

I won’t speculate, but I can tell you that we sold a 3/2 designer with pool in January, in one day, for 45k more than we paid two years prior. This week I have seen two 3/2 designer pool homes for sale, in the same vicinity (south of 466A)….one for 532k and one for 492k, both are less than we paid in 2018.

As mentioned earlier, we're buying the lifestyle not a house and a resale of whatever we end up choosing will not happen.

Not meant to offend anyone, but the new houses way down by the freeway are just too far away from what we feel is the heart of The Villages.

Just like playing the market, who can say for sure? I think the housing market will take a hit. People have had a serious hit in the stock market and would not be feeling as flush and may have trouble selling their present home. Your finances will dictate. Being here is wonderful, no doubt, especially when activities are open!

It all depends upon the virus and its effects on the economy. No way to tell at this point.

Ask 12 economists and will probably get 13 answers.

Speak with your financial people regarding rent vs own, then go with what's best for your financial situation. You brought up the point of not having to worry about maintenence issues, that's certainly part of the equation and will be a consideration for you. The lifestyle here is amazing. Don't put off your decision too long. Tomorrow is promised to no one. Enjoy life while you can, especially since as you keep implying, money is no object for you.

As someone mentioned earlier, the demographic of house buyers in TV is older, mostly retired people who don't rely on work income. Even with stocks down a lot of us have our home paid off and can pay cash moving from one house to another.

No one will be offended by your statement.

It is the same as someone saying they would not buy a house north of 466 because it would be too far from the beautiful walking and biking trails south of 44.

I think most of us think the "heart of The Villages" is right where we live.

The opinion of our Villages realtor is that once the bridges open the prices of the homes North of the bridges will drop.

I would like to use this as an example of what I call the illusion of making money on real estate. Per the post they sold the house for $45K more than they paid two years prior. Also there is a hint of the sale was over $532K. Let's assume it sold for $600K. The sales commision at 6% would be $36K. Well that leaves $9K for profit. In two years they owned the house it would be very likely they put money into it, landscape, curtains, electrical fixtures, etc.Plus there was closing cost and if a mortgage two years of interest. Thus there was no money made.