The stock market is off the rails
 

According to this person's opinion anyway.

So what's your point ??

There are some who will use anything in order to gain an advantage. Pandemics, race wars, crashing the economy, doesn't matter how many are hurt or killed.

Then there are others who panicked and sold their portfolios at a loss and are now confused by a market that keeps going back up.

Irrational exuberance. :ho:

Dow rallies 900 points for the first time since early April amid historic jobs surge

U.S. employers added a shocking 2.5 million jobs last month — the largest gain on record — while the unemployment rate slid to 13.3%, the Labor Department said Friday. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a drop of more than 8 million jobs and the unemployment rate to nearly reach 20%, which would have been the highest since the 1930s.

Attachment 84445

As Yogi said - It's not over till it's over - still have a long, long way to go including a vaccine and treatment for virus that did not go away

The only reason for the "historic job surge" is the "historic job plunge" last month. So basically - we're still at a significant loss.

But hey, if you had 10 widgets, lost 9 of them and then get 1 back, it's a better headline saying "widgets increased by 100%"...than "widgets are up to 20% of what they were at one point." :1rotfl:

An assessment that any recovery in the economy will take until "2025 or 2030" seems incredibly pessimistic to me.

People sitting at home unable to work is bound to cause unemployment numbers to rise and production to fall, yet the media is announcing these things as if they were unexpected.

Once people get back to work, which most of them will have done before the end of 2020, these numbers will be back to close to pre-covid levels. Add in the pent up demand from consumers (not just products, but services, too) and the likelihood that, having been caught out by "just in time" stocking, companies will adopt "just in case" levels of stock and you have a recipe for a quick recovery in the economy.

As already pointed out, the stock market is evaluating the future not the present and, in my opinion, that future is 2021, not 2025 or 2030.

Bull vs Bear, Bear takes a 15 yd penalty today!
 

Although a valid opinion, the supply chains coming from around the world might have different or less solvable issues that will constrain the US re-stocking. The urban exodus with the work from home movement may require a different distribution system. Houses in suburbia are selling fast. A close friends daughter mid 20's came out of a Friday meeting where it was determined that everyone will WFH for now, maybe office visit 1-2 a quarter, and she bought a house the next Monday 3 hours from the city, prior to the house being on the market, from the builder at list price, with a one hour time limit on the offer, with a real estate agent who had an idea for that type of person's requirements.

Another example, company's discussing return to office plans are seeing huge elevator restrictions, so high rise offices will be out of favor for a while. Both mine and coachk's have these restrictions.

So retail supply and distribution systems will be changed, and that won't be without pain of deflation in real estate in some areas and abrupt inflation in another, and debt repayment issues, will hopefully be avoided.

Workforce turnover with age discrimination will be another, where older white collar workers who aren't ready or able to retire early will be forced to accept lower wages, which will cause a drag on disposable income sales, and older toy sales, ie deflation.

So, the stock market is not the economy, WFH relocation may cause more unintended consequences than are currently expected. Debt issues have been deferred, not solved, and so while the news is good, its just for today, as the future is uncertain, with some days more than others.

So glad that the TV house is fully WFH secure with high speed internet available with hard wired outlets in every room for a secure environment. Multiple monitor space available at the desks. So good we are driving down to WFH in TV for the rest of june!

Good points and...have a safe trip. :thumbup:

An interesting point to consider
 

Employers needed the “hire back” furloughed employees, to qualify for loan forgiveness.
But they can fire them again in August, but keep the money borrowed.

So, the theory is that this money is to hold them over until an expected recovery later this summer, and that the money will be spent on prior employees.

Reality may be different, such as not spending the money and limited clawback attempts. Also, not sure if there will be any recourse for hiring different / new employees.

will be interesting

sportsguy

You are concerned about working from home and using Wi-Fi? That is one reason to use a VPN. Virtually all companies that allow people to work from home will require a VPN to access internal systems.

It takes a team effort to hit the bulls eye.
Those who shoots the arrows.
Those who paints a bullseye around where ever the arrows land.

The bullseye special interest group and the media report....

"SEE" the number of bulls eye hits they made.

Whoops, "misclassification error," jobless numbers a "mistake" and likely three percentage points higher than the touted 13.3%.

The May jobs report had 'misclassification error' that made the unemployment rate look lower than it is. Here's what happened - StamfordAdvocate

Mistakes happen and I'm sure, there wasn't an agenda...in making this one. ;)

Speaking of media reports...

I post this because it is the epitome of terrible taste for any news source. Extremes all over, but this is financial reporting, reporting on US economy

Just like Drew Brees, they apologized. So it must be okay now..

Fox News apologizes for on-air graphic showing market reaction to violence against black men

Yes, they did. I just came back to add that fact.

While you see some connection between a huge corporation and one pro athlete, I don't, but that's how it goes. I truely back off in even mentioning FOX, no matter how grevious the lies, but this was so terrible and insensitive and insulting.

I applaud the apology.....I totally refute your comparison.

Cool.. :coolsmiley:

There will be no vaccine!

A major economist today sited the SP 500 is 30 x earnings similar to the tech bubble we lived through. Predicts SP 500 not only back to low but will touch 1600. Rationale was every major recession / depression had the same dead cat bounce we just experienced before the long painful recovery.

Tiny little guy named Krugman? The guy who told us the stock market would never recover after you know who was elected?

There is an old thread deep in the archives of the investment forum here. I started it in the last part of 2018. The topic was Stock Buybacks and I asked for opinions.

At the time, I said that I thought the running bull market was an artificial high because corporations were buying back their own stock with money from their corporate tax breaks. Corporate spending on buybacks had exceeded a trillion dollars.

That old bull kept on running through 2019. But, to me, it just did not feel right.

Just think — if corporations would have put more of those tax break dollars to better use — building, employing, improving the business models, there now would be something solid to show for it. Money on paper can be fleeting. All that money spent on stock buybacks? — much of it gone now.

The 2019 market, and most of the 2018 market, were built like a house of cards, propped up by buybacks. Unrestrained greed is bad economics. I do not feel like we will see the market collapse. What I do see the market doing illustrates that old saying, “Paybacks are hell.”

Cassandra Boomer

A lot of prescience in that now closed thread. :thumbup:


Stock Buybacks? Opinions? (invest your time here)


.

The stock market is cold no more
 

New records for the S&P and NASDAQ. The Dow is next.

Dow Industrial
29,100.50 454.84 +1.59%
NASDAQ Composite
12,056.44 116.78 +0.98%
S&P 500
3,580.84 54.19 +1.54%

Well hopefully we are well on the way to recovery.

That's great news for people who have stocks. For the majority of the country, it is just one of those "oh, isn't that nice" pieces of information. Pass the salt.

Actually a majority (about 55%) own stocks either directly, or via mutual funds, or via ETFs, mostly in retirement accounts.

If you include people who own mutual funds and IRA's and 401K's think that brings the percentage up quite a bit.

The current stock markets have no correlation to the actual economy right now. While only a little over 1/2 of us own stocks, in any form, right now everyone is punch-drunk on greed and thinking they are smart enough that they will have a chair when reality hits and the music stops. Covid has crippled the actual economy and those who don't own stocks know it, but most of those who do own or trade stocks refuse to believe it. So many jobs have either been permanently eliminated, or it will take a long time for them to come back, that stocks make absolutely no sense right now. When the bloodbath starts - it will be really ugly.

Here's one person that thinks the way I do and his personal indicator has only went up since this article last week.

Warren Buffett's favorite market indicator soars to record high, signaling stocks are overvalued and a crash may be coming | Markets Insider

The ratio reached a historic 183% on Wednesday, reflecting the breathless stock rally in recent months and the plunge in second-quarter GDP. Buffett said it was a "strong warning signal" when the indicator peaked before the dot-com crash.

The stock market reflects what people think will happen in the future. It pretty much has always worked that way. Also, with interest rates at essentially zero, the Fed has made the stock market the place to go, although the broader bond market is up almost 8% YTD. I would avoid using words like "everyone", "absolutely no sense", and "most of those" since you don't know what "everyone" is thinking. So, tell us how you have shorted the market in anticipation of the big correction. Yes, there will be a correction and "everyone" knows that because the market is cyclical.

I don't do "shorts," as I'm not that greedy or needy. I'm satisfied with just sitting on the sidelines for now. It's been a great run. One for the history books.

Anyone who says they can time the market is talking nonsense.

Best thing to do is dollar cost average or as close to that as you can come.

I do believe in the long term future of America and as long as you are ok riding out the bumps and bruises will do well in the long term.

Salt passers are clueless.......even if the passer does not have stocks/MF's, a strong market is correlated to a strong economy which impacts jobs & wages. The passer may not need jobs & wages, but they have family &/or friends who need jobs/wages.
:ho:

Correct. I believe the best approach is to decide on an asset allocation strategy and stick with it. The stock market has more upturns than downturns.

We watched comedian Rita Rudner on Amazon Prime last night...she talked a little about meeting with her new Financial Advisor....

Best line was "My Financial Advisor asked me what my risk tolerance was and wanted to know how much money I was willing to lose...(she paused)...why none of it I said" the crowd roared, as did we.

A previous doctor that I had before moving to TV and I had a discussion about the stock market...I recall him saying "I woke up in a total sweat the other night realizing that having all my retirement money in the stock market was the same as taking it to Vegas!"

There's and old saying....Bulls and Bears make money....pigs lose.

As long as states are allowed to mandate a $7.25/hour minimum wage, the economy will be horrible.

Not everyone is destined to earn a 6-figure salary. SOMEONE has to bag your groceries. SOMEONE has to give you forms to fill out at the doctor's office. SOMEONE has to dry-clean your suit. SOMEONE has to groom your cat. SOMEONE has to polish your nails. SOMEONE has to pick the tomatoes off the vine, and SOMEONE has to stock them in the bins at the supermarket.

Those are all minimum wage jobs. Jobs that are necessary for "those with means" to be able to enjoy the life to which they have become accustomed.

When those employees are earning less than $200 per week and have to rely on themselves and spouse who also earns less than $200 per week for all living expenses, including day-care for the kids, clothing, food, gas, rent (because who's going to give someone who only earns $200/week a mortgage to buy a home?)...

for those people the economy is not good. It's not even mediocre. There are millions of people across the country who are living below the poverty level, most of whom would love to be lawyers and doctors and famous hollywood actors and TV producers and therapists and engineers and architects.

But they can't afford school. They can't afford to take time off from work to attend classes, AND take time away from their kids to dedicate hours in class instruction - even if it's online.

You keep these people poor because you need them to be poor. And then you tell everyone how awesome the economy is.

The economy is not good. It's lousy. STOCKS are good. But stocks /= economy.